4) With increased stability and cooler east Atlantic, it is reasonable to expect an increased chance for homegrown storms that develop closer to the North American continent.

This is fairly common in the early and late season anyways, but we may see more storms wait to develop until closer to land.

2) Cooling tropics and 3) warming mid-lats are a negative for TC activity as the Hadley cell stretches into summer.

This reduces vertical instability and intensity of convection over the tropics, inhibiting TC intensity and longevity. This was an important factor in analog year selection.

The key factors driving the 2025 season:
1) El Niño is unlikely to develop this fall. Cool ENSO neutral conditions are favored.

While this generally helps Atlantic hurricane activity, the lack of ENSO influence will make tracking MJO activity more important during the season.