Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
Another episode in my substack on "Pluribus" and socialist economics and politics, this time comparing the sci-fi show with Hegel's "universal Reason":
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
February 5, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Another episode in my substack on "Pluribus" and socialist economics and politics, this time comparing the sci-fi show with Hegel's "universal Reason":
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Russia Services PMI is 53.1, up from 52.3 in December, the strongest growth level for a year, so signs that the economy is beginning to dig itself out of its hole. The rise in VAT is hitting prices, but companies seem to be able to pass this through to customers.
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com
February 4, 2026 at 12:17 PM
Russia Services PMI is 53.1, up from 52.3 in December, the strongest growth level for a year, so signs that the economy is beginning to dig itself out of its hole. The rise in VAT is hitting prices, but companies seem to be able to pass this through to customers.
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Kazakh services PMI up a bit at 50.5 after 49.5 last month, it's normally a leading indicator, and given that the weak Manufacturing PMI seems to be a one-off related to VAT, it looks like there's slow growth there. Sharp jump in input prices though.
Kazakh services PMI up a bit at 50.5 after 49.5 last month, it's normally a leading indicator, and given that the weak Manufacturing PMI seems to be a one-off related to VAT, it looks like there's slow growth there. Sharp jump in input prices though.
www.pmi.spglobal.com
February 4, 2026 at 12:14 PM
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Kazakh services PMI up a bit at 50.5 after 49.5 last month, it's normally a leading indicator, and given that the weak Manufacturing PMI seems to be a one-off related to VAT, it looks like there's slow growth there. Sharp jump in input prices though.
Kazakh services PMI up a bit at 50.5 after 49.5 last month, it's normally a leading indicator, and given that the weak Manufacturing PMI seems to be a one-off related to VAT, it looks like there's slow growth there. Sharp jump in input prices though.
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Russia PMI numbers perk up, to 49.4 in Jan, from 48.1 in Dec. Still contractionary though - monetary policy is still tight, and industry is still hurting from crowding out by the military sector. So signs of recovery, but it's slow
Russia PMI numbers perk up, to 49.4 in Jan, from 48.1 in Dec. Still contractionary though - monetary policy is still tight, and industry is still hurting from crowding out by the military sector. So signs of recovery, but it's slow
www.pmi.spglobal.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:02 PM
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Russia PMI numbers perk up, to 49.4 in Jan, from 48.1 in Dec. Still contractionary though - monetary policy is still tight, and industry is still hurting from crowding out by the military sector. So signs of recovery, but it's slow
Russia PMI numbers perk up, to 49.4 in Jan, from 48.1 in Dec. Still contractionary though - monetary policy is still tight, and industry is still hurting from crowding out by the military sector. So signs of recovery, but it's slow
Kazakhstan Manufacturing PMI numbers out: www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Number dips below 50, implying contraction, but this may be because demand was high in December because of anticipated price rises in January, which in turn were due to higher VAT.
Number dips below 50, implying contraction, but this may be because demand was high in December because of anticipated price rises in January, which in turn were due to higher VAT.
www.pmi.spglobal.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Kazakhstan Manufacturing PMI numbers out: www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
Number dips below 50, implying contraction, but this may be because demand was high in December because of anticipated price rises in January, which in turn were due to higher VAT.
Number dips below 50, implying contraction, but this may be because demand was high in December because of anticipated price rises in January, which in turn were due to higher VAT.
Pure James C. Scott
oh very familiar with this from Chinese business contexts too, including the perennial problem of 'who should we make sure doesn't know about this'
Many game studios have "shadow production", in which someone sets up a parallel (but functioning) system of organization to compensate for the inadequacies of whatever methodology the actual producer insists on employing; thus requiring an act of continuous translation between the two.
February 2, 2026 at 8:17 AM
Pure James C. Scott
This is reminiscent of the Russians refusing to believe that courts in the UK are independent and don't take orders from the government
The Trump disbelief that the Norwegian govt doesn't control the Nobel process is deeply indicative of his thinking. He can't conceive that an institution could (or should) be genuinely independent of coercion or political power. That's the change he represents.
Trump: "I should have gotten the Nobel prize for each war...I saved millions and millions of people...and don't let anyone tell you that Norway doesn't control the shots. It's in Norway. Norway controls the shots. It's a joke. They've lost such prestige.“
January 21, 2026 at 10:40 AM
This is reminiscent of the Russians refusing to believe that courts in the UK are independent and don't take orders from the government
New substack post about Pluribus, and what it tells us about the utopianism of the Arrow-Debreu model: open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Bitcoin, or rather, not about bitcoin
How the world of Pluribus is no less fantastic than that which underpins the theory of the efficiency of the free market
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:22 PM
New substack post about Pluribus, and what it tells us about the utopianism of the Arrow-Debreu model: open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
www.reuters.com/world/india/... I think this is the direction of travel for payments systems amongst the BRICS. There was already talk of this last year. China and Dubai developed the mBridge system to allow for easy exchange of CBDCs. The BIS was involved but withdrew under USA pressure 1/n
Exclusive: India's central bank proposes linking BRICS' digital currencies, sources say
India's central bank has proposed that BRICS countries link their official digital currencies to make cross-border trade and tourism payments easier, two sources said, which could reduce reliance on t...
www.reuters.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:54 PM
www.reuters.com/world/india/... I think this is the direction of travel for payments systems amongst the BRICS. There was already talk of this last year. China and Dubai developed the mBridge system to allow for easy exchange of CBDCs. The BIS was involved but withdrew under USA pressure 1/n
Now draw ME like a French girl
January 17, 2026 at 8:59 AM
Now draw ME like a French girl
I implore everyone to read Operation KRONSTADT by Harry Ferguson - deserves to be filmed. I couldn't put it down - flimsy motor boats with giant engines depositing spies near Petrograd, and also raiding the Kronstadt base. Dukes plays a big part
👀 Agent reporting (known as a CX) from Sir Paul Dukes, codenamed ST 25, and the only SIS agent to be knighted for his services in Russia, from January 1919. Dukes was an important agent on Bolshevik political and military affairs, who later wrote about his experiences.
January 16, 2026 at 12:14 PM
I implore everyone to read Operation KRONSTADT by Harry Ferguson - deserves to be filmed. I couldn't put it down - flimsy motor boats with giant engines depositing spies near Petrograd, and also raiding the Kronstadt base. Dukes plays a big part
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
I mapped 80k london airbnbs putting pressure on London housing. The result is annoying if you want a simple villain because airbnb is not to blame for this pressure. Anyway I also found 1,500 listings where you can book guilt-free: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle... Map: laurenleek.eu/airbnb_map
Everyone’s Mad at Airbnb. This Map Explains What We Should Blame Instead.
The real reason Airbnb clusters where it does - and 1,500 listings you can book guilt-free if the policymakers won't listen.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:37 AM
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Pluribus and Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
Wouldn't life be better if we all thought the same way?
open.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:25 PM
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Has anyone read the book Babel? I’m trying but every time I start to get into it it gets really didactic in a way that just rips me right back out of it
December 26, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
December 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
December 17, 2025 at 11:15 AM
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
December 15, 2025 at 4:20 PM
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
oh my god there actually is a gated community of horrible people in hiding in Moscow, pleaseeeee someone write that sitcom with me www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
December 15, 2025 at 10:18 AM
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
This is the point where the anti-Reeves stories tip into madness. Criticise her performance all you like but what the hell is this?
December 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
Reposted by Tom Adshead
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
November 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
November 26, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
The Kremlin disguised a nearly $100 mn payment to Trump in the form of a brokered real estate deal... and both Jeffrey Epstein and William Pulte were involved in the deal. That's very interesting.
November 13, 2025 at 9:06 PM
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The West's Inflection Point in the Caucasus: Untying the Georgian Knot. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Join us for a conversation with Join us for a conversation with:
John DiPirro, Senior Fellow in Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council and Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institu...
us02web.zoom.us
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Туман наше все: ВС РФ под покровом тумана входят в Покровск...
Когда на землю ложится густой туман, «птички» слепы. А значит дроновая угроза сводится почти к нулю.
А потому туман — друг солдата. Од...
t.me
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.