Kevin Anchukaitis
@thirstygecko.bsky.social
Climate scientist, paleoclimatologist, dendrochronologist, University of Arizona | https://kanchukaitis.github.io/ | Opinions are mine and not that of my employer
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
The defense that this was just an adjustment based on better data is self-serving BS.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
November 20, 2025 at 1:48 AM
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
🌳💧📊 #PhDAlert! MSc in #ForestEcology or #EnvironmentalSciences? Excellent analytical and statistical skills in time-series analysis and experience with #treering methods🪵? We offer a #PhD position in #Dendroecology: apply.refline.ch/273855/1795/... #dendrosciences #ecology #ScienceJobs
November 19, 2025 at 3:09 PM
🌳💧📊 #PhDAlert! MSc in #ForestEcology or #EnvironmentalSciences? Excellent analytical and statistical skills in time-series analysis and experience with #treering methods🪵? We offer a #PhD position in #Dendroecology: apply.refline.ch/273855/1795/... #dendrosciences #ecology #ScienceJobs
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY: Come join us at ForestGEO, based in the Smithsonian, to study tropical forest mortality!
Postdoctoral Fellowship in Tropical Forest Mortality
The position will be based at the ForestGEO headquarters at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC.
forestgeo.si.edu
November 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY: Come join us at ForestGEO, based in the Smithsonian, to study tropical forest mortality!
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
🚨 News Flash 🚨
Four EEPS Faculty, one graduate student, and one undergraduate student were highlighted in this months "Milestones in Science Newsletter."
Read more here: t.co/1430XJEqGF
Four EEPS Faculty, one graduate student, and one undergraduate student were highlighted in this months "Milestones in Science Newsletter."
Read more here: t.co/1430XJEqGF
November 18, 2025 at 2:50 PM
🚨 News Flash 🚨
Four EEPS Faculty, one graduate student, and one undergraduate student were highlighted in this months "Milestones in Science Newsletter."
Read more here: t.co/1430XJEqGF
Four EEPS Faculty, one graduate student, and one undergraduate student were highlighted in this months "Milestones in Science Newsletter."
Read more here: t.co/1430XJEqGF
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Science People: We at NSF are still recovering/catching up/getting our lives together. But the agency posted these FAQs about post-shutdown resumption of operations which might answer a lot of Qs for you: www.nsf.gov/resumption-o...
Resumption of Operations at NSF
Information for NSF staff and the research community regarding the agency's resumption of operations after a lapse in appropriations.
www.nsf.gov
November 18, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Science People: We at NSF are still recovering/catching up/getting our lives together. But the agency posted these FAQs about post-shutdown resumption of operations which might answer a lot of Qs for you: www.nsf.gov/resumption-o...
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
New article alert 🚨 for the #FireEcology Journal! "Repeated fire and extended drought influence forest resilience in Arizona Sky Islands" by Miles Fule and Donald A. Falk #SNFECO 🔥
Read it here: https://ow.ly/XhUo50XpyeC
Read it here: https://ow.ly/XhUo50XpyeC
November 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM
New article alert 🚨 for the #FireEcology Journal! "Repeated fire and extended drought influence forest resilience in Arizona Sky Islands" by Miles Fule and Donald A. Falk #SNFECO 🔥
Read it here: https://ow.ly/XhUo50XpyeC
Read it here: https://ow.ly/XhUo50XpyeC
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
"The escalating frequency and damage of catastrophic [wildland-urban] fires are accelerating faster than social systems can adapt, presenting disruptive and systemic risks. Among the most pressing: the destabilization of the insurance industry." 🔥
Wildfires have created instability within risk transfer markets. Here’s a path forward | PNAS
Wildfires have created instability within risk transfer markets. Here’s a path forward
www.pnas.org
November 14, 2025 at 5:32 PM
"The escalating frequency and damage of catastrophic [wildland-urban] fires are accelerating faster than social systems can adapt, presenting disruptive and systemic risks. Among the most pressing: the destabilization of the insurance industry." 🔥
Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–2024 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 14, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–2024 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Exciting news! Student applications for paleoCAMP 2026 are open! Are you a graduate student working on any aspect of past climates or environments? Apply to be part of our 2-week summer school in the eastern Sierra Nevada! More details here: paleoclimate.camp/apply
Application — paleoCAMP
paleoclimate.camp
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Exciting news! Student applications for paleoCAMP 2026 are open! Are you a graduate student working on any aspect of past climates or environments? Apply to be part of our 2-week summer school in the eastern Sierra Nevada! More details here: paleoclimate.camp/apply
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Exactly this. Sending strength to all our fellow feds, and to everyone else: please bear with us. Let’s see how this goes.
November 13, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Exactly this. Sending strength to all our fellow feds, and to everyone else: please bear with us. Let’s see how this goes.
You will take my Ibuprofen from my cold, dead hands.
JD Vance calls ibuprofen "useless medication" and implies it's not "necessary, safe and effective."
November 12, 2025 at 11:39 PM
You will take my Ibuprofen from my cold, dead hands.
Columbia University's IRI Data Library (which I still sometimes call INGRID) will be retired iri.columbia.edu/resources/da...
a man with a beard is pouring soda into a glass
ALT: a man with a beard is pouring soda into a glass
media.tenor.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Columbia University's IRI Data Library (which I still sometimes call INGRID) will be retired iri.columbia.edu/resources/da...
Congratulations @sfeakins.bsky.social on becoming the new Editor in Chief of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and thank you to Matthew Huber for all the years of service that did so much to strengthen this important journal!
AGU Publications is pleased to welcome five new Editors-in-Chief to our journals program in 2026!🎉
We thank the outgoing EiCs for their leadership and contributions during their terms, and offer a warm welcome to their successors!
🔗 buff.ly/PZKSOuC
#AGUPubs #Publishing
We thank the outgoing EiCs for their leadership and contributions during their terms, and offer a warm welcome to their successors!
🔗 buff.ly/PZKSOuC
#AGUPubs #Publishing
Announcing New AGU Journal Editors-in-Chief Starting in 2026 - Eos
AGU is excited to welcome new Editors-in-Chief for five of our journals in 2026.
buff.ly
November 12, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Congratulations @sfeakins.bsky.social on becoming the new Editor in Chief of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and thank you to Matthew Huber for all the years of service that did so much to strengthen this important journal!
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
www.uea.ac.uk
November 12, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Maybe the real PDO was the friends we made along the way www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation - Nature Climate Change
Natural patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), strongly influence regional climate. This study shows that anthropogenic warming now has greater influence than ...
www.nature.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Maybe the real PDO was the friends we made along the way www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A.E. Douglass (founder of the science of dendrochronology) got fired by Percival Lowell for questioning the existence of 'canals' on Mars. Douglass was out of science for many years before getting a position at the University of Arizona. He would be expected to teach physics & physical geography:
November 10, 2025 at 8:21 PM
A.E. Douglass (founder of the science of dendrochronology) got fired by Percival Lowell for questioning the existence of 'canals' on Mars. Douglass was out of science for many years before getting a position at the University of Arizona. He would be expected to teach physics & physical geography:
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Researchers say sudden, short-lived droughts in New England may become more frequent, putting farms, grasslands and water supply systems at risk, writes Columbia Climate School MA Climate & Society student @ryankrugman.bsky.social. Via @insideclimatenews.org.
Another Dry Spell Hits New England, Raising Alarm About Flash Droughts - Inside Climate News
Researchers say sudden, short-lived droughts in the region may become more frequent, putting farms, grasslands and water supply systems at risk.
insideclimatenews.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Researchers say sudden, short-lived droughts in New England may become more frequent, putting farms, grasslands and water supply systems at risk, writes Columbia Climate School MA Climate & Society student @ryankrugman.bsky.social. Via @insideclimatenews.org.
Cool use of a clumped isotopologue in wood! - Isotopic evidence for elevated photorespiration during the last glacial period www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Isotopic evidence for elevated photorespiration during the last glacial period - Nature Geoscience
Low carbon dioxide levels during the last glacial period enhanced photorespiration in trees across North America, indicating a decline in land plant productivity, according to measurements of clumped ...
www.nature.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Cool use of a clumped isotopologue in wood! - Isotopic evidence for elevated photorespiration during the last glacial period www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850?
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
November 6, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850?
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
"But perhaps the most consequential long-term loss for federal science is that of institutional knowledge and expertise — and the downstream effects on the training of early-career researchers."
"We lost people with decades of experience and everyone who was very early career, ...”
"We lost people with decades of experience and everyone who was very early career, ...”
Dismantling of US federal agencies will ‘destroy science’
From NASA to the National Institutes of Health, federal agencies conduct research that universities cannot. Agency scientists speak out about the irreplaceable facilities, institutional knowledge and ...
www.nature.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:59 PM
"But perhaps the most consequential long-term loss for federal science is that of institutional knowledge and expertise — and the downstream effects on the training of early-career researchers."
"We lost people with decades of experience and everyone who was very early career, ...”
"We lost people with decades of experience and everyone who was very early career, ...”
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Postdoctoral Scholar - Environmental Science & Policy
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
November 3, 2025 at 6:16 PM
🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Yes, it is this scary in science. We were world leader only 10 months ago.
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
Top researchers consider leaving U.S. amid funding cuts: 'The science world is ending'
A poll from the journal Nature found that 75% of researchers in the U.S. are considering leaving the country. That includes a man who’s been dubbed the "Mozart of Math." Stephanie Sy examines what’s b...
www.pbs.org
November 2, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Yes, it is this scary in science. We were world leader only 10 months ago.
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
From where I’m sitting at our neighborhood mescal bar I can’t see the ghost singing karaoke because there are 2 sentient mushrooms, several cowboys, an alien, a sad clown, and a hamburger in the way
November 1, 2025 at 3:41 AM
From where I’m sitting at our neighborhood mescal bar I can’t see the ghost singing karaoke because there are 2 sentient mushrooms, several cowboys, an alien, a sad clown, and a hamburger in the way
Nice analyses by Eden Markovitz and Nathan Steiger on recent persistent drought for Easter Island (Rapa Nui). Indeed, the island had one of the more severe future drying trends in our 2016 paper (Karnauskas et al. www.nature.com/articles/ncl...) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
October 30, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Nice analyses by Eden Markovitz and Nathan Steiger on recent persistent drought for Easter Island (Rapa Nui). Indeed, the island had one of the more severe future drying trends in our 2016 paper (Karnauskas et al. www.nature.com/articles/ncl...) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
i don’t know how to cross-post this from FB but this is absolutely heartbreaking. The age of scientific ocean discovery we were brought up in is gone & will never come back. I can’t.
October 30, 2025 at 2:51 AM
i don’t know how to cross-post this from FB but this is absolutely heartbreaking. The age of scientific ocean discovery we were brought up in is gone & will never come back. I can’t.