Matt Soule
@souletrain.bsky.social
Here for puns and the remnants of weather/climate twitter
Reposted by Matt Soule
"The Grand Conspiracy theory attempts to impose not only narrative coherence on these rantings and ravings, but legal coherence, too—as well as legal consequences, judging from the fact that it is now before an actual grand jury," writes @mollyroberts.bsky.social.
Trump’s Grand Conspiracy Delusion
The Grand Conspiracy is a conspiracy theory, not a real legal theory.
www.lawfaremedia.org
January 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM
"The Grand Conspiracy theory attempts to impose not only narrative coherence on these rantings and ravings, but legal coherence, too—as well as legal consequences, judging from the fact that it is now before an actual grand jury," writes @mollyroberts.bsky.social.
Reposted by Matt Soule
Nehls: I would like to quickly address the police officers from January 6th. And I can tell you that the fault does not lie with Donald Trump. It lies with the US capitol leadership team.
Fanone: *Coughs: Go fuck yourself*
Fanone: *Coughs: Go fuck yourself*
January 22, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Nehls: I would like to quickly address the police officers from January 6th. And I can tell you that the fault does not lie with Donald Trump. It lies with the US capitol leadership team.
Fanone: *Coughs: Go fuck yourself*
Fanone: *Coughs: Go fuck yourself*
Reposted by Matt Soule
Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley: "We're hearing people being stopped with no cause & being demanded to show paperwork to determine if they're here legally. We started hearing from our police officers the same complaints. Every one of these individuals is a person of color... it has to stop"
January 20, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley: "We're hearing people being stopped with no cause & being demanded to show paperwork to determine if they're here legally. We started hearing from our police officers the same complaints. Every one of these individuals is a person of color... it has to stop"
Reposted by Matt Soule
The Star Tribune had an insane graphic about the presence of immigration enforcement in Minneapolis. There are more immigration officers in the metro right now than local police officers.
January 15, 2026 at 12:56 AM
The Star Tribune had an insane graphic about the presence of immigration enforcement in Minneapolis. There are more immigration officers in the metro right now than local police officers.
Reposted by Matt Soule
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
"“They specifically asked me if I knew where the Hmong families lived on my street & in the neighborhood.” Lugert-Thom responded, “I don’t know anything about that” & she said they then asked, “Well, what about the Asian families?”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
A St. Paul resident says federal officers knocked on her door and asked her to identify Hmong and Asian households in her North End neighborhood last week.
January 14, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
Reposted by Matt Soule
And this right here is a perfect example of why it’s important not to sink into rule of law despair over Trump’s record in appeals courts. This is not an isolated example. When they lose badly enough and anticipate losses ahead, they slow the process way down or simply surrender.
A year ago Trump ordered that federal funds be cut off to states that don't assist in immigration enforcement, and last spring DOT tried to cut off transportation funds to sanctuary states. Twenty states sued and won a permanent injunction, and the Trump administration just dropped its appeal.
Washington prevails in case protecting more than $1 billion in transportation grant funding as Trump administration drops appeal https://www.atg.wa.gov/news/news-releases/washington-prevails-case-protecting-more-1-billion-transportation-grant-funding
January 15, 2026 at 12:22 AM
And this right here is a perfect example of why it’s important not to sink into rule of law despair over Trump’s record in appeals courts. This is not an isolated example. When they lose badly enough and anticipate losses ahead, they slow the process way down or simply surrender.
Reposted by Matt Soule
In tracking this down to the source, I haven’t seen anything that is not solely the word of the Department of Homeland Security.
January 15, 2026 at 1:12 AM
In tracking this down to the source, I haven’t seen anything that is not solely the word of the Department of Homeland Security.
Reposted by Matt Soule
"Searches of newsrooms and journalists are hallmarks of illiberal regimes, and we must ensure that these practices are not normalized here," says @jameeljaffer.bsky.social, calling on the Justice Department to publicly explain its actions. See our full statement:
knightcolumbia.org/content/fbi-...
knightcolumbia.org/content/fbi-...
FBI Search of Washington Post Reporter’s Home Raises Serious First Amendment Concerns, Knight Institute Says
knightcolumbia.org
January 14, 2026 at 3:22 PM
"Searches of newsrooms and journalists are hallmarks of illiberal regimes, and we must ensure that these practices are not normalized here," says @jameeljaffer.bsky.social, calling on the Justice Department to publicly explain its actions. See our full statement:
knightcolumbia.org/content/fbi-...
knightcolumbia.org/content/fbi-...
Reposted by Matt Soule
December 2025 was the 5th warmest December on record globally. This month was about 1.42°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Note the sharp temperature anomaly contrast across North America!
Summary of month from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-... 🌊🧪⚒️
Summary of month from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-... 🌊🧪⚒️
January 15, 2026 at 12:46 AM
December 2025 was the 5th warmest December on record globally. This month was about 1.42°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Note the sharp temperature anomaly contrast across North America!
Summary of month from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-... 🌊🧪⚒️
Summary of month from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social: climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-... 🌊🧪⚒️
Reposted by Matt Soule
My comprehensive report on the most important records set during 2025 for the globe.
"While 2025’s warmth did not set a new record, it was extraordinary because human-caused global warming pushed global temperatures to near-record levels despite the cooling influence of the La Niña phenomenon, which typically suppresses global temperatures." #SpectrumNews1 #ncwx #ClimateChange
2025 was Earth's 3rd-warmest year on record » Yale Climate Connections
Human-caused global warming pushed global temperatures to near-record levels despite the cooling influence of the La Niña phenomenon, which typically suppresses global temperatures.
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 15, 2026 at 1:39 AM
My comprehensive report on the most important records set during 2025 for the globe.
Reposted by Matt Soule
1/DOJ OLC's memo on the #Venezuela attack makes clear that that in the Executive's view, there's nothing left of Congress' Art. I power to decide whether the nation goes to war.
Congress needs to push back hard on this.
More to come, but a few initial observations:
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
Congress needs to push back hard on this.
More to come, but a few initial observations:
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
www.justice.gov
January 13, 2026 at 10:50 PM
1/DOJ OLC's memo on the #Venezuela attack makes clear that that in the Executive's view, there's nothing left of Congress' Art. I power to decide whether the nation goes to war.
Congress needs to push back hard on this.
More to come, but a few initial observations:
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
Congress needs to push back hard on this.
More to come, but a few initial observations:
www.justice.gov/olc/media/14...
Reposted by Matt Soule
So many horrible things going on, and I wish I had better news, but the US is drying out, making water scarcer and farming harder and possibly making heating worse than models show
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The Next Dust Bowl Is Becoming More Likely
About 90 years ago, American farmers in the Great Plains had so ravaged the thin soil there that a series of droughts turned the region into a vast expanse of dust, which formed monstrous storms and p...
www.bloomberg.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:52 PM
So many horrible things going on, and I wish I had better news, but the US is drying out, making water scarcer and farming harder and possibly making heating worse than models show
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Matt Soule
Here's my annual update of sea level observations and trends at Virginia Key near #Miami:
The 2025 annual average water level was the 5th highest on record, (18.6-yr LNC removed). The trend is upward at an average rate of ~2.7 inches or 6.9 cm per decade.
The 2025 annual average water level was the 5th highest on record, (18.6-yr LNC removed). The trend is upward at an average rate of ~2.7 inches or 6.9 cm per decade.
January 12, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Here's my annual update of sea level observations and trends at Virginia Key near #Miami:
The 2025 annual average water level was the 5th highest on record, (18.6-yr LNC removed). The trend is upward at an average rate of ~2.7 inches or 6.9 cm per decade.
The 2025 annual average water level was the 5th highest on record, (18.6-yr LNC removed). The trend is upward at an average rate of ~2.7 inches or 6.9 cm per decade.
Reposted by Matt Soule
What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?
January 12, 2026 at 1:44 AM
What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?
Reposted by Matt Soule
Temperature anomalies (departure from average) around our planet for the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right)... note the unusual "warmth" across both polar regions
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
December 22, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Temperature anomalies (departure from average) around our planet for the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right)... note the unusual "warmth" across both polar regions
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
Reposted by Matt Soule
This is a remarkable forecast discussion from the WPC:
"...heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+..."
"...anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux; 5+ standard deviations above the mean..."
(2/2)
"...heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+..."
"...anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux; 5+ standard deviations above the mean..."
(2/2)
December 22, 2025 at 9:20 PM
This is a remarkable forecast discussion from the WPC:
"...heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+..."
"...anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux; 5+ standard deviations above the mean..."
(2/2)
"...heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+..."
"...anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux; 5+ standard deviations above the mean..."
(2/2)
Reposted by Matt Soule
By this point, the elimination/circumvention of attorneys throughout national security agencies has predictably resulted in open boasting of illegality: Reprisal for "vengeance" is never a legitimate basis for the use of force. That's been well-established ... [1]
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/u...
U.S. Strikes Islamic State Targets in Syria
www.nytimes.com
December 20, 2025 at 10:30 AM
By this point, the elimination/circumvention of attorneys throughout national security agencies has predictably resulted in open boasting of illegality: Reprisal for "vengeance" is never a legitimate basis for the use of force. That's been well-established ... [1]
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/u...
Reposted by Matt Soule
It would appear a serious flooding risk is developing for Southern California on Wednesday. We explain, have details on the other impacts across California, including a review of flooding near Redding yesterday. We also discuss a record warm Christmas for many. Details below or at theeyewall.com.
Serious flooding risk in Southern California on Wednesday, as much of the country gears up for one of the warmest Christmases on record
An infrequent "high risk" for flooding is now posted in parts of the LA Metro for Wednesday
open.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 9:51 PM
It would appear a serious flooding risk is developing for Southern California on Wednesday. We explain, have details on the other impacts across California, including a review of flooding near Redding yesterday. We also discuss a record warm Christmas for many. Details below or at theeyewall.com.
Reposted by Matt Soule
Bari Weiss apparently spiked Sharyn Alfonsi’s 60 Minutes segment on CECOT for political reasons.
Here’s her email to the news staff.
Sharyn Alfonsi has more guts than every single beltway reporter.
Here’s her email to the news staff.
Sharyn Alfonsi has more guts than every single beltway reporter.
December 22, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Bari Weiss apparently spiked Sharyn Alfonsi’s 60 Minutes segment on CECOT for political reasons.
Here’s her email to the news staff.
Sharyn Alfonsi has more guts than every single beltway reporter.
Here’s her email to the news staff.
Sharyn Alfonsi has more guts than every single beltway reporter.
Reposted by Matt Soule
Grading and googling hallucinated citations, as one does nowadays, and now that LLMs have been around for a while, I've discovered new horrors: hallucinated journals are now appearing in Google Scholar with dozens of citations bc so many people are citing these fake things
December 15, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Grading and googling hallucinated citations, as one does nowadays, and now that LLMs have been around for a while, I've discovered new horrors: hallucinated journals are now appearing in Google Scholar with dozens of citations bc so many people are citing these fake things
Reposted by Matt Soule
PLEASE read this important update to my earlier post about the state of the NWS. Media reports this evening make clear that rather than having a poor forecast for the Skagit River in WA, the NWS played a key role in enabling mitigation efforts to reduce flooding impacts. tinyurl.com/488jvp33
Updated BalancedWx Special: Evaluating NWS staffing and operational posture at the end of 2025
Important new story from the western Washington flooding demonstrates the importance of the NWS and why it needs our support
tinyurl.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:57 AM
PLEASE read this important update to my earlier post about the state of the NWS. Media reports this evening make clear that rather than having a poor forecast for the Skagit River in WA, the NWS played a key role in enabling mitigation efforts to reduce flooding impacts. tinyurl.com/488jvp33
Reposted by Matt Soule
My #Arctic temperature graphics have been updated for November 2025 (ranked in top 5 warmest). New records were reached in my individual Pacific Arctic and Greenland Arctic regional sectors.
➡️ Check it out: zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe.... #DataViz #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData
➡️ Check it out: zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe.... #DataViz #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData
Arctic Temperatures
Near real-time visualizations [Arctic Climate Seasonality and Variability] [Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Concentration] [Arctic Sea-Ice Volume and Thickness] [Arctic Temperatures] [Antarctic Sea-Ice E…
zacklabe.com
December 11, 2025 at 12:24 PM
My #Arctic temperature graphics have been updated for November 2025 (ranked in top 5 warmest). New records were reached in my individual Pacific Arctic and Greenland Arctic regional sectors.
➡️ Check it out: zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe.... #DataViz #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData
➡️ Check it out: zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe.... #DataViz #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData
Reposted by Matt Soule
a big new one from me: I profiled a group of neighbors in west texas who have become the face of the abandoned well problem in the heart of oil country for @motherjones.com - an unlikely group of former industry workers and ranchers who are fed up with how Big Oil won’t clean up its messes:
Meet the TikTok stars demanding oil companies clean up their mess
There are millions of abandoned oil wells across the United States. A group of unlikely activists in Texas is making sure no one forgets they need to be cleaned up.
www.motherjones.com
December 8, 2025 at 12:50 PM
a big new one from me: I profiled a group of neighbors in west texas who have become the face of the abandoned well problem in the heart of oil country for @motherjones.com - an unlikely group of former industry workers and ranchers who are fed up with how Big Oil won’t clean up its messes:
Reposted by Matt Soule
“We’ve been doing things wrong for a very long time,” [one former oil industry worker] said, “and now that we know we’re doing things wrong, we need to start fixing it.”
Great reporting, as always, from @mollytaft.com
Great reporting, as always, from @mollytaft.com
a big new one from me: I profiled a group of neighbors in west texas who have become the face of the abandoned well problem in the heart of oil country for @motherjones.com - an unlikely group of former industry workers and ranchers who are fed up with how Big Oil won’t clean up its messes:
Meet the TikTok stars demanding oil companies clean up their mess
There are millions of abandoned oil wells across the United States. A group of unlikely activists in Texas is making sure no one forgets they need to be cleaned up.
www.motherjones.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:27 PM
“We’ve been doing things wrong for a very long time,” [one former oil industry worker] said, “and now that we know we’re doing things wrong, we need to start fixing it.”
Great reporting, as always, from @mollytaft.com
Great reporting, as always, from @mollytaft.com
Reposted by Matt Soule
🚨 Monday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record (JAXA data)
• about 840,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,390,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 2,050,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,510,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Graphics zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
• about 840,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,390,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 2,050,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,510,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Graphics zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
December 8, 2025 at 1:43 PM
🚨 Monday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record (JAXA data)
• about 840,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,390,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 2,050,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,510,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Graphics zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
• about 840,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,390,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 2,050,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,510,000 km² below the 1980s mean
Graphics zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...