@sonusv.bsky.social
Goldman raises 2025 core PCE estimate to 3.5% on tariffs
But they think Fed cuts 3 times in 2025, on growth scare/UE rate rising to 4.5%. Probability of a recession over next 12M is 35% (up from 20%)
Am skeptical Powell & co will cut at all if core PCE is heading above 3%!
But they think Fed cuts 3 times in 2025, on growth scare/UE rate rising to 4.5%. Probability of a recession over next 12M is 35% (up from 20%)
Am skeptical Powell & co will cut at all if core PCE is heading above 3%!
March 30, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Goldman raises 2025 core PCE estimate to 3.5% on tariffs
But they think Fed cuts 3 times in 2025, on growth scare/UE rate rising to 4.5%. Probability of a recession over next 12M is 35% (up from 20%)
Am skeptical Powell & co will cut at all if core PCE is heading above 3%!
But they think Fed cuts 3 times in 2025, on growth scare/UE rate rising to 4.5%. Probability of a recession over next 12M is 35% (up from 20%)
Am skeptical Powell & co will cut at all if core PCE is heading above 3%!
We’re looking at increasing odds of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2025
Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights, on Trump’s auto tariffs:
March 28, 2025 at 6:11 AM
We’re looking at increasing odds of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2025
Good piece here
Though it may be more interesting to swap out US mid/small cap industrials and financials for European industrials and financials
As opposed to US large value ...
Though it may be more interesting to swap out US mid/small cap industrials and financials for European industrials and financials
As opposed to US large value ...
March 10, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Good piece here
Though it may be more interesting to swap out US mid/small cap industrials and financials for European industrials and financials
As opposed to US large value ...
Though it may be more interesting to swap out US mid/small cap industrials and financials for European industrials and financials
As opposed to US large value ...
Reposted
While lots of talk about tariffs and recession risk now, this is the most underrated story in macro now:
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices have moved from $2.67 on election day all the way past $4.50.
That will matter for utility bills. And it will matter for the AI boom and the future of the IRA
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices have moved from $2.67 on election day all the way past $4.50.
That will matter for utility bills. And it will matter for the AI boom and the future of the IRA
March 10, 2025 at 5:22 PM
While lots of talk about tariffs and recession risk now, this is the most underrated story in macro now:
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices have moved from $2.67 on election day all the way past $4.50.
That will matter for utility bills. And it will matter for the AI boom and the future of the IRA
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices have moved from $2.67 on election day all the way past $4.50.
That will matter for utility bills. And it will matter for the AI boom and the future of the IRA
Reposted
Incredible, the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” is just Bitcoin that was already seized via forfeiture. No actual purchases.
March 7, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Incredible, the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” is just Bitcoin that was already seized via forfeiture. No actual purchases.
Reposted
Mistaking belligerence for strength again are we
Also, if EU ever got on a war footing and started running big fiscal deficits and investing domestically, $ GDP would be up 40-50%
EU can easily increase population via migration if it wants, every young person is fleeing Russia
Also, if EU ever got on a war footing and started running big fiscal deficits and investing domestically, $ GDP would be up 40-50%
EU can easily increase population via migration if it wants, every young person is fleeing Russia
Is Russia really “stronger” than Europe? It’s smaller, poorer, spends less on defence…
November 30, 2024 at 3:42 PM
Mistaking belligerence for strength again are we
Also, if EU ever got on a war footing and started running big fiscal deficits and investing domestically, $ GDP would be up 40-50%
EU can easily increase population via migration if it wants, every young person is fleeing Russia
Also, if EU ever got on a war footing and started running big fiscal deficits and investing domestically, $ GDP would be up 40-50%
EU can easily increase population via migration if it wants, every young person is fleeing Russia
Amazing stuff … totally come full circle to open borders and free trade 🤷🏽♂️
December 29, 2024 at 1:11 AM
Amazing stuff … totally come full circle to open borders and free trade 🤷🏽♂️
Port of LA is set for busiest December on record
Port of Long Beach on track to have its best-ever year
Some of this due to disruptions on East coast/ Gulf ports and maybe import rush ahead of tariffs.
But be wary of the whole reshoring narrative!
Port of Long Beach on track to have its best-ever year
Some of this due to disruptions on East coast/ Gulf ports and maybe import rush ahead of tariffs.
But be wary of the whole reshoring narrative!
December 18, 2024 at 6:13 PM
Port of LA is set for busiest December on record
Port of Long Beach on track to have its best-ever year
Some of this due to disruptions on East coast/ Gulf ports and maybe import rush ahead of tariffs.
But be wary of the whole reshoring narrative!
Port of Long Beach on track to have its best-ever year
Some of this due to disruptions on East coast/ Gulf ports and maybe import rush ahead of tariffs.
But be wary of the whole reshoring narrative!
Something to think about … what if there’s no tax bill or rate cuts in H1 2025 😕
Ideally, tax bill goes through the first time around.
Second bites of the legislative apple are not quite successful …
Ideally, tax bill goes through the first time around.
Second bites of the legislative apple are not quite successful …
NEW: Republicans clash over 'SALT' deduction as they seek to extend Trump's tax law
Some Rs insist on lifting the $10,000 cap.
“Two-seat majority; eight or 10 very SALT-y Republicans? You guys can do the math on that one,” pro-SALT Rep. Nick LaLota (R) tells me.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Some Rs insist on lifting the $10,000 cap.
“Two-seat majority; eight or 10 very SALT-y Republicans? You guys can do the math on that one,” pro-SALT Rep. Nick LaLota (R) tells me.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Republicans clash over 'SALT' deduction as they seek to extend Trump's tax law
Early battle lines are forming over a contentious issue that has split Republicans in high-tax states from their other colleagues as they plan a big tax bill next year.
www.nbcnews.com
December 12, 2024 at 11:53 PM
Something to think about … what if there’s no tax bill or rate cuts in H1 2025 😕
Ideally, tax bill goes through the first time around.
Second bites of the legislative apple are not quite successful …
Ideally, tax bill goes through the first time around.
Second bites of the legislative apple are not quite successful …
The (somewhat) sweet irony of the whole crypto melt up is that the biggest winner is Blackrock
IBIT now has $53bil AUM and the fee has jumped from 12bps to 25bps
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
IBIT now has $53bil AUM and the fee has jumped from 12bps to 25bps
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
December 7, 2024 at 3:38 PM
The (somewhat) sweet irony of the whole crypto melt up is that the biggest winner is Blackrock
IBIT now has $53bil AUM and the fee has jumped from 12bps to 25bps
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
IBIT now has $53bil AUM and the fee has jumped from 12bps to 25bps
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
Some thoughts on the recent dollar surge, what it means and 3 big risks it poses, including headwinds for
1) US exports
2) Earnings
3) international equities (USD investors)
More here 👇
www.carsongroup.com/insights/blo...
1) US exports
2) Earnings
3) international equities (USD investors)
More here 👇
www.carsongroup.com/insights/blo...
This Is Why the Dollar Is Surging, and Why It Could Pose Risks
An underrated story right now is the US dollar, which has appreciated by over 6% since the end of September. A big driver of the dollar is relative growth rates between the US and everyone else. So, t...
www.carsongroup.com
November 25, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Some thoughts on the recent dollar surge, what it means and 3 big risks it poses, including headwinds for
1) US exports
2) Earnings
3) international equities (USD investors)
More here 👇
www.carsongroup.com/insights/blo...
1) US exports
2) Earnings
3) international equities (USD investors)
More here 👇
www.carsongroup.com/insights/blo...
Reposted
Who’s buying stocks and bonds in 60/40 split?
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
November 22, 2024 at 1:00 PM
Who’s buying stocks and bonds in 60/40 split?
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
Who’s buying stocks and bonds in 60/40 split?
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
November 22, 2024 at 1:00 PM
Who’s buying stocks and bonds in 60/40 split?
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
NVIDIA 😉
Some fun data from their 10Qs 🧵
NVIDIA’s AI-based operating income
+115% from a year ago
+1900% from 2 years ago 🙌
So … a ton of cash coming in, but what’re they doing with it 🤔
1/
Doesn’t look like the trade deficit is going down … if that is even a goal 🤷🏽♂️
*Americans traveling abroad count as imports
*Americans traveling abroad count as imports
EURUSD 1.05 is a hell of a drug
*UNITED SEES ALMOST 10% HOLIDAY TRAVEL SURGE TO EUROPE Y/Y
*UNITED SEES ALMOST 10% HOLIDAY TRAVEL SURGE TO EUROPE Y/Y
November 19, 2024 at 2:16 PM
Doesn’t look like the trade deficit is going down … if that is even a goal 🤷🏽♂️
*Americans traveling abroad count as imports
*Americans traveling abroad count as imports