No Sunk Costs
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Archive - https://x.com/nosunkcosts
This guy’s argument can be boiled down to “we need less imports and higher beef prices so we as incumbent capital owners can make a higher, unnatural return on capital” but there’s a lot of other filler in between
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
pca.st
November 30, 2025 at 3:07 AM
This guy’s argument can be boiled down to “we need less imports and higher beef prices so we as incumbent capital owners can make a higher, unnatural return on capital” but there’s a lot of other filler in between
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
Packing industry ROICs are mediocre FWIW
pca.st/episode/6490...
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation
pca.st
November 30, 2025 at 2:28 AM
There’s a fundamental flaw in the premise here — “mass culture” is defined as film, TV, music… when in reality culture is downstream of TikTok, YouTube, the internet and there’s no stagnation there
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
Movies are irrelevant to mass media - but still relevant to commentators
pca.st/episode/ab91...
I still have time for 'Pluribus' due to talent involved, but it increasingly feels like a slog -- I admire the desire to convey concepts and ideas in an artistic format, but that's better suited to a movie
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
November 30, 2025 at 1:26 AM
I still have time for 'Pluribus' due to talent involved, but it increasingly feels like a slog -- I admire the desire to convey concepts and ideas in an artistic format, but that's better suited to a movie
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
A TV show needs either compelling characters or propulsive narrative -- this has neither
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
November 23, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
November 22, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
November 22, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
November 22, 2025 at 5:32 AM
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
November 22, 2025 at 5:10 AM
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
November 22, 2025 at 4:24 AM
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
November 21, 2025 at 8:41 AM
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
November 19, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 AM
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
He’s good at math in pre-K* which means he knows 3 comes after 2
New VC flex: I’m raising a horrible, spoiled brat but it’s OK because they’re good at math.
November 12, 2025 at 11:16 PM
He’s good at math in pre-K* which means he knows 3 comes after 2
Fascinating to see Adyen go from a company that eschewed guidance and analyst engagement to a company that talks to the street constantly and provides multi-year top-line and margin guides
November 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Fascinating to see Adyen go from a company that eschewed guidance and analyst engagement to a company that talks to the street constantly and provides multi-year top-line and margin guides
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
November 9, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 AM
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
November 6, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Reposted by No Sunk Costs
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
GS 2035 FX Forecasts
Spicy for JPY and CNH
Spicy for JPY and CNH
November 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM
GS 2035 FX Forecasts
Spicy for JPY and CNH
Spicy for JPY and CNH
I think this true: we exist today in a state of significant material contentment. The opportunity cost of time is incredibly high because life is so much more enjoyable than the past and random death is much less likely
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
November 2, 2025 at 5:51 AM
I think this true: we exist today in a state of significant material contentment. The opportunity cost of time is incredibly high because life is so much more enjoyable than the past and random death is much less likely
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
I think this is obviously true -- creation has moved to digital formats that are not yet considered art by the traditional commentariat
November 2, 2025 at 5:48 AM
I think this is obviously true -- creation has moved to digital formats that are not yet considered art by the traditional commentariat
We used to have colourful cars
November 2, 2025 at 5:21 AM
We used to have colourful cars
The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s
November 2, 2025 at 5:20 AM
The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s