Dr Sari Arho Havrén
@sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Geopolitics, China analyst. Geopolitical strategic foresight. China’s foreign policy. History,International Relations PhD. RUSI Associate Fellow. Opinions mine. 🇨🇳🇪🇺🇭🇰🇫🇮🇬🇧
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow
#Tangram #ObservingChina
#Tangram #ObservingChina
Should Whitehall say ‘mega no’ to China’s ‘mega embassy’ in London?
The Tangram | No 09.2025
www.observingchina.org.uk
October 29, 2025 at 12:20 PM
🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow
#Tangram #ObservingChina
#Tangram #ObservingChina
Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.
October 31, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.
Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.
October 20, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.
Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
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1/
October 19, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
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1/
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
We are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows!
🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
October 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM
We are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows!
🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.
October 10, 2025 at 6:44 PM
It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.
During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.
October 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.
Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.
October 10, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.
Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal.
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
October 8, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal.
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
Energy experts want to build thousand wind turbines on the Finnish eastern border as part of the #DroneWall
They would provide a platform for airspace monitoring from the height of 200 meters.
#Defence
yle.fi/a/74-2018462...
They would provide a platform for airspace monitoring from the height of 200 meters.
#Defence
yle.fi/a/74-2018462...
Itäsuomalaiset vaikuttajat haluavat itärajalle tuhat tuulivoimalaa – toimisivat EU:n droonimuurin osana
Lappeenrannassa selvitetään, voidaanko Venäjän ilmatilaa valvoa tuulivoimaloista. Aiemmin Puolustusvoimat on rajoittanut tuulivoimaloiden rakentamista itärajalle, koska ne häiritsevät Puolustusvoimie...
yle.fi
October 2, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Energy experts want to build thousand wind turbines on the Finnish eastern border as part of the #DroneWall
They would provide a platform for airspace monitoring from the height of 200 meters.
#Defence
yle.fi/a/74-2018462...
They would provide a platform for airspace monitoring from the height of 200 meters.
#Defence
yle.fi/a/74-2018462...
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
If China isn’t a threat to national security then no country is 🤯
on.ft.com/3IxutVG Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
on.ft.com/3IxutVG Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
Crown Prosecution Service had charged two Britons with espionage offences
on.ft.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:49 PM
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/
October 7, 2025 at 6:13 PM
This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
So, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social.
www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
Watching China in Europe—October 2025
www.gmfus.org
October 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
So, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social.
www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.
”..likely to be more such White House deals for mining projects — specifically those that would produce metal needed by the defence sector, such as antimony. Those materials were likely to be more of a focus than battery metals such as lithium and nickel”🇺🇸
on.ft.com/3VSE7oU
on.ft.com/3VSE7oU
White House says it will take 10% stake in Trilogy Metals
Shares in mining company more than double on announcement from US secretary of interior
on.ft.com
October 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.
Based on national legislation in most countries, such tankers could be stopped and inspected. The European-wide inertia is staggering.
At least five tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” have leaked oil into European waters over the past year, according to a new investigation.
Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tankers Linked to Oil Leaks in European Waters – Politico - The Moscow Times
At least five tankers from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — vessels used to evade Western sanctions — have leaked oil into European waters over the past year, an investigation by Politico and the j...
www.themoscowtimes.com
October 7, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Based on national legislation in most countries, such tankers could be stopped and inspected. The European-wide inertia is staggering.
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
OTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.
October 7, 2025 at 7:23 AM
OTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
China threatened to retaliate against UK over foreign influence rules
Exclusive: Chinese officials warned that targeting its security apparatus would negatively affect relations
www.theguardian.com
October 7, 2025 at 12:44 PM
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Blocked from the U.S. market, Chinese self-driving technology firms are accelerating their push into Europe, setting up headquarters, striking data deals, and road-testing - prompting alarm from local rivals over competition concerns.1/2
China bets on Europe for self-driving tech expansion
Blocked from the U.S. market, Chinese self-driving technology firms are accelerating their push into Europe, setting up headquarters, striking data deals, and road-testing - prompting alarm from local rivals over competition concerns.
www.reuters.com
October 6, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Blocked from the U.S. market, Chinese self-driving technology firms are accelerating their push into Europe, setting up headquarters, striking data deals, and road-testing - prompting alarm from local rivals over competition concerns.1/2
Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.
October 6, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.
In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out.
There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation.
It was and is all about HER.
There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation.
It was and is all about HER.
October 6, 2025 at 6:21 AM
In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out.
There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation.
It was and is all about HER.
There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation.
It was and is all about HER.
“Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/
October 5, 2025 at 6:55 PM
“Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/
Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.
NEW: ICE is planning to hire a team of nearly 30 people to surveil social media 24/7, build dossiers on people, and flag them for arrest and deportation. @dell.bsky.social has the scoop: www.wired.com/story/ice-so...
ICE Wants to Build Out a 24/7 Social Media Surveillance Team
Documents show ICE plans to hire dozens of contractors to scan X, Facebook, TikTok, and other platforms to target people for deportation.
www.wired.com
October 5, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.
On Friday, the Helsinki District Court ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction over cable damage caused by the Eagle S in the Baltic Sea.
The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/
The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/
October 5, 2025 at 2:34 PM
On Friday, the Helsinki District Court ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction over cable damage caused by the Eagle S in the Baltic Sea.
The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/
The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/
A cargo ship linked to a drone attack that disrupted air traffic in Denmark and is linked to a Russian mercenary/military company, RSB Group, arrived at the port of Hamina in Finland at night‼️11/13 of the crew are Russians.
1/3
1/3
September 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
A cargo ship linked to a drone attack that disrupted air traffic in Denmark and is linked to a Russian mercenary/military company, RSB Group, arrived at the port of Hamina in Finland at night‼️11/13 of the crew are Russians.
1/3
1/3
This is not mere visioning. Western governments, pressured for funding public services, can save money by adopting these already widely used techniques. The rule of law currently protects individuals from those in power, but the rising far right is not known for rigorously defending civil rights.
Larry Ellison envisions a surveillance state in which techbros rule. '“Citizens will be on their best behavior, because we’re constantly recording and reporting everything that is going on,” Ellison said in an hour-long Q&A during Oracle’s Financial Analyst Meeting last week.'
Larry Ellison predicts rise of the modern surveillance state where ‘citizens will be on their best behavior’ | Fortune
Oracle's Larry Ellison believes citizens and police alike will be under constant surveillance of each other.
fortune.com
September 28, 2025 at 8:14 AM
This is not mere visioning. Western governments, pressured for funding public services, can save money by adopting these already widely used techniques. The rule of law currently protects individuals from those in power, but the rising far right is not known for rigorously defending civil rights.