Ms. Opossum graphs COVID data (was @anarchodelphis).
@ratnegative.bsky.social
🏴🇭🇰 🤝 🇵🇸🇸🇩🇹🇼
◉ she/her/佢 ◉
◉ See "Media" tab for work. ◉
COVID-dodging Hongkonger on xʷməθkʷəy̓əm, səl̓ilwətaɬ & Sḵwx̱wú7mesh land.
Research, maps: https://linktr.ee/anarchodelphis
Sign up for alerts: https://forms.gle/QHVsiu5zbdSAdbCX9
◉ she/her/佢 ◉
◉ See "Media" tab for work. ◉
COVID-dodging Hongkonger on xʷməθkʷəy̓əm, səl̓ilwətaɬ & Sḵwx̱wú7mesh land.
Research, maps: https://linktr.ee/anarchodelphis
Sign up for alerts: https://forms.gle/QHVsiu5zbdSAdbCX9
Wooooooo! Reactive measures!
November 9, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Wooooooo! Reactive measures!
Can anyone tell me why the BCCDC is tracking SARS-CoV-2 lineages in wastewater but not influenza A subtypes (like highly pathogenic avian influenza strains)? Wouldn't it be nice if we knew when HPAI was making the rounds in urban areas? Maybe the @bcgreens.bsky.social should talk to us for ideas.
November 9, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Can anyone tell me why the BCCDC is tracking SARS-CoV-2 lineages in wastewater but not influenza A subtypes (like highly pathogenic avian influenza strains)? Wouldn't it be nice if we knew when HPAI was making the rounds in urban areas? Maybe the @bcgreens.bsky.social should talk to us for ideas.
Reposted by Ms. Opossum graphs COVID data (was @anarchodelphis).
Please note that I'll be deleting the rest of the thread in a week in order to fix some accessibility issues with the slides. If you would like to share the thread, be sure only to share the first post (for now), not the rest.
November 7, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Please note that I'll be deleting the rest of the thread in a week in order to fix some accessibility issues with the slides. If you would like to share the thread, be sure only to share the first post (for now), not the rest.
Please note that I'll be deleting the rest of the thread in a week in order to fix some accessibility issues with the slides. If you would like to share the thread, be sure only to share the first post (for now), not the rest.
November 7, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Please note that I'll be deleting the rest of the thread in a week in order to fix some accessibility issues with the slides. If you would like to share the thread, be sure only to share the first post (for now), not the rest.
If the @bcgreencaucus.bsky.social @bcgreens.bsky.social @emilylowan.bsky.social @jervaler.bsky.social @robbotterell.bsky.social want to discuss all this, its implication for future pandemic preparedness, what the BCNDP has done since 2020 to get here, & more -- my allies and I are prepared to talk.
November 7, 2025 at 6:40 AM
If the @bcgreencaucus.bsky.social @bcgreens.bsky.social @emilylowan.bsky.social @jervaler.bsky.social @robbotterell.bsky.social want to discuss all this, its implication for future pandemic preparedness, what the BCNDP has done since 2020 to get here, & more -- my allies and I are prepared to talk.
@sharpflower.bsky.social @deathpanel.bsky.social @juliadoubleday.bsky.social @chantzy.bsky.social @charliesmithvcr.bsky.social @thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social @brownecfm.bsky.social @canadahealthwatch.ca @embers1.bsky.social @rachelgilmore.bsky.social @jvipondmd.bsky.social @drkarenpinder.bsky.social
November 7, 2025 at 4:52 AM
...or that the late administration of vaccines can result in lower vaccine effectiveness (www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....). "We have the tools" until we don't, not even the one tool they keep promoting. 57/57
Durability of XBB.1.5 Vaccines against Omicron Subvariants | NEJM
A data survey of 1.8 million people in Nebraska showed that XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness
was 52% against infection and 67% against hospitalization, despite a decline in circulating
XBB.1.5 during ...
www.nejm.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:14 AM
...or that the late administration of vaccines can result in lower vaccine effectiveness (www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....). "We have the tools" until we don't, not even the one tool they keep promoting. 57/57
The vaccines target LP.8.1. Never mind that the circulation of LP.8.1 descendants (at least, ones that haven't been chopped and remixed) had all but ceased in late August (bsky.app/profile/ratn...) ... 56/?
UPDATED: #BC #SARSCoV2 variants.
Of 53 samples from 9/7 - 9/20 (vs. 33, 8/24 - 9/6):
NB.1.1.1.* (incl. PQ.*): 18.9% (⬆️ 12.1%)
XFG.* (incl. QK.2): 77.4% (〰️ 78.8%)
→ XFG.3.4.*: 24.5% (⬆️ 12.1%)
PY.1.1.1: <2% (⬇️ 6.1%)
ratnegative.tumblr.com/BCVariants #COVID19
Of 53 samples from 9/7 - 9/20 (vs. 33, 8/24 - 9/6):
NB.1.1.1.* (incl. PQ.*): 18.9% (⬆️ 12.1%)
XFG.* (incl. QK.2): 77.4% (〰️ 78.8%)
→ XFG.3.4.*: 24.5% (⬆️ 12.1%)
PY.1.1.1: <2% (⬇️ 6.1%)
ratnegative.tumblr.com/BCVariants #COVID19
November 7, 2025 at 4:14 AM
The vaccines target LP.8.1. Never mind that the circulation of LP.8.1 descendants (at least, ones that haven't been chopped and remixed) had all but ceased in late August (bsky.app/profile/ratn...) ... 56/?
Lastly, on the basis of last year's vaccine uptake, the Ministry of Health has failed to order enough vaccines to satisfy this year's demand (thetyee.ca/News/2025/10...). 55/?
No COVID Shot Appointments Available? Check Again Later | The Tyee
Vaccinations are up this year over last year, but there are enough doses to go around, BC’s Health Ministry says.
thetyee.ca
November 7, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Lastly, on the basis of last year's vaccine uptake, the Ministry of Health has failed to order enough vaccines to satisfy this year's demand (thetyee.ca/News/2025/10...). 55/?
To conclude, our capacity to use wastewater surveillance to monitor disease transmission is being degraded over vague, outwardly reasonable promises that it'll be put to use in saving drug users' lives or enhanced when Taylor Swift is causing another superspreader. 54/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:12 AM
To conclude, our capacity to use wastewater surveillance to monitor disease transmission is being degraded over vague, outwardly reasonable promises that it'll be put to use in saving drug users' lives or enhanced when Taylor Swift is causing another superspreader. 54/?
In any case, why do this when the province can expand its network of drug testing sites or even guarantee a safe supply? Wastewater data can't be used to derive even a general location, unless samples are being taken from sewers near to the site of the suspected drug use. 53/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:11 AM
In any case, why do this when the province can expand its network of drug testing sites or even guarantee a safe supply? Wastewater data can't be used to derive even a general location, unless samples are being taken from sewers near to the site of the suspected drug use. 53/?
But, beyond "saving lives" and "informing policy", what interventions will be put into place, and whether they will result in more law enforcement interactions and carceral justice are never elaborated. 52/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:11 AM
But, beyond "saving lives" and "informing policy", what interventions will be put into place, and whether they will result in more law enforcement interactions and carceral justice are never elaborated. 52/?
...(onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...). 2. The Vancouver Sun article & the Pacific Public Health Foundation's own materials also promote the use of wastewater surveillance for finding drugs (pacificpublichealth.ca/projects/was...) "at a localized level". 51/?
Transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 by inhalation of respiratory aerosol in the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreading event
During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, an outbreak occurred following attendance of a symptomatic index case at a weekly rehearsal on 10 March of the Skagit Valley Chorale (SVC). After that rehearsal, 53...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:11 AM
...(onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...). 2. The Vancouver Sun article & the Pacific Public Health Foundation's own materials also promote the use of wastewater surveillance for finding drugs (pacificpublichealth.ca/projects/was...) "at a localized level". 51/?
1. They say that "enhanced surveillance" can be used when big events (eg. Taylor Swift concerts) are being held. But this lets smaller ones fly under the radar, when they are just as likely to be superspreaders, like a weekly rehearsal session of the Skagit Valley Chorale... 50/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:10 AM
1. They say that "enhanced surveillance" can be used when big events (eg. Taylor Swift concerts) are being held. But this lets smaller ones fly under the radar, when they are just as likely to be superspreaders, like a weekly rehearsal session of the Skagit Valley Chorale... 50/?
...the 3 week average trendlines, making the trends more difficult to discern, requiring more time and more weekly data points to discern. This defeats the point of wastewater surveillance.
Now, I would like to address the points made in the sponsored Vancouver Sun article. 49/?
Now, I would like to address the points made in the sponsored Vancouver Sun article. 49/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:10 AM
...the 3 week average trendlines, making the trends more difficult to discern, requiring more time and more weekly data points to discern. This defeats the point of wastewater surveillance.
Now, I would like to address the points made in the sponsored Vancouver Sun article. 49/?
Now, I would like to address the points made in the sponsored Vancouver Sun article. 49/?
A number of factors can affect the amount and longevity of RNA in wastewater, so wastewater data is prone to outliers. Having only 1 sample per week makes it more difficult to see which values are outliers and by how much. The outliers also more easily "throw off"... 48/?
November 7, 2025 at 4:10 AM
A number of factors can affect the amount and longevity of RNA in wastewater, so wastewater data is prone to outliers. Having only 1 sample per week makes it more difficult to see which values are outliers and by how much. The outliers also more easily "throw off"... 48/?
...on a Tuesday have either captured only the highest values in a week, only days when wastewater RNA was below the limit of detection, & anywhere in between. This also demonstrates how easily weekly sampling can fail to detect transmissions when they are sporadic or low. 47/?
![[Graph and text on a yellow octagon meant to look like the output of an overhead projector.]
6-month graph of the RNA content (millions of gene copies per person per day) of wastewater at the Comox Valley wastewater treatment plant. The lighter, dotted line includes all wastewater samples. The darker, solid line with red dots includes only wastewater samples taken on a Tuesday. Wastewater samples were taken on a Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday schedule. I’ve highlighted weeks where only the highest values would’ve been captured in neon yellow, and weeks in which Tuesday-only sampling would’ve failed to detect viral transmission in orange.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dy4l7kqcar73iaezbjxzwiui/bafkreid4yifaqotp5ex5twpb6cirde4nrgvs5xi36selk22cibgyzue2bm@jpeg)
November 7, 2025 at 4:10 AM
...on a Tuesday have either captured only the highest values in a week, only days when wastewater RNA was below the limit of detection, & anywhere in between. This also demonstrates how easily weekly sampling can fail to detect transmissions when they are sporadic or low. 47/?
Infections also seem to follow a near-weekly cycle, the amplitudes and timing of which are difficult to predict (ratnegative.tumblr.com/BCWastewater). So, it's just as difficult to foresee where on these cycles the next data point will fall. Over a 6 mo. period, samples taken in Comox... 46/?
ratnegative.tumblr.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Infections also seem to follow a near-weekly cycle, the amplitudes and timing of which are difficult to predict (ratnegative.tumblr.com/BCWastewater). So, it's just as difficult to foresee where on these cycles the next data point will fall. Over a 6 mo. period, samples taken in Comox... 46/?