Nah man not cool

That’s for Wolves to figure out.

I think it actually does happen by accident, ie home vs away ‘form’ is just variance made into a talking point. We haven’t been demonstrably better away, just better results. But the best possible picture of where we are is all games, not slices along arbitrary lines.

I think @jackpittbrooke.bsky.social said it well on VFTL: as a performance relative to our expectations, it was brilliant, since we get thrashed there every time and haven't looked good in general; but as a performance in general it was not good.

The question I don't think is whether the bad underlying data match the performances so far--I think we've been bad performance wise and data wise; we're 11th in the table--but whether we'll come down further to underlying numbers or numbers will improve.

Although at this point last season, we were down to 10th in the table on 20 points, 6 points off 4th, with the 4th best goal differential in the league (+13), (t) 3rd *fewest* goals conceded, (t) 3rd *most* goals scored, so I'm guessing this is the period you're thinking of.

I don't think game state making people want to attack more necessarily means they're producing more.

We were underperforming, but we were also 7th in the table, 3 points off 3rd. I would say then the stats began to reflect the fact that we were playing with a makeshift 11-13 players and the results followed from that.

I should say I'd hope you don't agree with everything I write! And also no worries, I don't expect people to read everything I write, just to take what they want.

That's just not backed up by data or results, though. We were not this far down the table nor this bad in underlying numbers last season until we lost half our starting squad to injury w/ no replacements available. The season before that we finished 5th, above wage bill.

I’m think the more data we get the stronger the picture we’ll be that we are bad.

The data picture has been pretty consistently bad for the whole season thus far, so there’s no reason to think it will suddenly improve, data-wise or results-wise.

If you read above then it should be clear that at no point have I said I think Wolves are a better team than us.

But also our actual results are better than our expected results but are also not good.

I think it does matter because it suggests we are not very good and will not continue to be so lucky if we don’t improve.

According to Opta's expected points model, we should both be on about 15 points (rather than Spurs being on 19 and Wolves being on 2), and Wolves should be ahead of us in the table in 15th place, we should be 17th:

It means they've created more than we have in attack, surrendered less than we have in defense, so on performance we should be closer to one another in points, i.e. Wolves should have more points and Spurs fewer. How much in either direction I don't know, but probably more of the latter.