profspur
@profspur.bsky.social
I write the profspur analysis newsletter https://profspur.substack.com
Oh word how many points do you get for those?
December 6, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Oh word how many points do you get for those?
According to Opta's expected points model, we should both be on about 15 points (rather than Spurs being on 19 and Wolves being on 2), and Wolves should be ahead of us in the table in 15th place, we should be 17th:
December 4, 2025 at 8:49 AM
According to Opta's expected points model, we should both be on about 15 points (rather than Spurs being on 19 and Wolves being on 2), and Wolves should be ahead of us in the table in 15th place, we should be 17th:
It means they've created more than we have in attack, surrendered less than we have in defense, so on performance we should be closer to one another in points, i.e. Wolves should have more points and Spurs fewer. How much in either direction I don't know, but probably more of the latter.
December 4, 2025 at 8:45 AM
It means they've created more than we have in attack, surrendered less than we have in defense, so on performance we should be closer to one another in points, i.e. Wolves should have more points and Spurs fewer. How much in either direction I don't know, but probably more of the latter.
We had the 6th highest xG through 14 last season, 28.09. This season we're on 12.7.
December 3, 2025 at 7:49 PM
We had the 6th highest xG through 14 last season, 28.09. This season we're on 12.7.
We are also have the 4th highest xGA and the 3rd worst xGD, and have conceded the 9th most actual goals. And there are real people walking the earth right now who insisted to me that after 2 weeks Frank *obviously* made us more 'defensively solid' and was just building that 'layer' first.
December 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
We are also have the 4th highest xGA and the 3rd worst xGD, and have conceded the 9th most actual goals. And there are real people walking the earth right now who insisted to me that after 2 weeks Frank *obviously* made us more 'defensively solid' and was just building that 'layer' first.
Spurs currently sit 16th in the league in xG. If Villa, Wolves, and Sunderland record 1.0 xG or more in their matches tonight, we'll be 19th.
December 3, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Spurs currently sit 16th in the league in xG. If Villa, Wolves, and Sunderland record 1.0 xG or more in their matches tonight, we'll be 19th.
With FFP in place there's no reason we can't build what Arsenal has built.
December 2, 2025 at 10:25 AM
With FFP in place there's no reason we can't build what Arsenal has built.
More the former. His final 3rd touches are, eyes-wise, trivial (his att pen touches are 13th percentile), as we do lots of horseshoeing and recycling to work the ball wide. But note (below) his defensive contribution is significant, as he's not really playing as high as a 10 in this system.
December 2, 2025 at 7:53 AM
More the former. His final 3rd touches are, eyes-wise, trivial (his att pen touches are 13th percentile), as we do lots of horseshoeing and recycling to work the ball wide. But note (below) his defensive contribution is significant, as he's not really playing as high as a 10 in this system.
Also relevant here is the fact that Xavi ranks 131st in the PL in progressive passes received, in a side that's 10th in the PL in total progressive passes received, I used touches initially as a proxy, but there are lots of ways of showing this is an under-utilized player in Spurs' system.
December 1, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Also relevant here is the fact that Xavi ranks 131st in the PL in progressive passes received, in a side that's 10th in the PL in total progressive passes received, I used touches initially as a proxy, but there are lots of ways of showing this is an under-utilized player in Spurs' system.
Sorry, meant to sort the one I attached. Here's sorted:
December 1, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Sorry, meant to sort the one I attached. Here's sorted:
Here is a table of Spurs' p90 touches (so you get a sense of 'when playing,' even though I think you might be confusing my term 'high-usage,' as in playing time, with 'high-touch,' as in touches). Put whatever adjective you want on it; adjectives aren't true or false.
December 1, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Here is a table of Spurs' p90 touches (so you get a sense of 'when playing,' even though I think you might be confusing my term 'high-usage,' as in playing time, with 'high-touch,' as in touches). Put whatever adjective you want on it; adjectives aren't true or false.
Wrong. He’s 70th percentile in the PL for att mf/wingers (FotMob, which uses Opta data) in total touches.
December 1, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Wrong. He’s 70th percentile in the PL for att mf/wingers (FotMob, which uses Opta data) in total touches.
I still am not seeing the same on fbref so no idea what you’re doing here. In any case, ringing the bell:
December 1, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I still am not seeing the same on fbref so no idea what you’re doing here. In any case, ringing the bell:
I know this person's claim that Xavi is 90th percentile in the top 5 leagues for touches is absolute bullshit just on the face of it because I watch the football, but for good measure: Xavi ranks 841st out of 2309 across the big 5 leagues for total touches, which is *63rd* percentile, not 90th! ...
December 1, 2025 at 4:53 PM
I know this person's claim that Xavi is 90th percentile in the top 5 leagues for touches is absolute bullshit just on the face of it because I watch the football, but for good measure: Xavi ranks 841st out of 2309 across the big 5 leagues for total touches, which is *63rd* percentile, not 90th! ...
For context, Xavi ranks 172nd in the PL in total touches; the top 15 in that list includes 6 midfielders, among them Bruno F and Szoboszlai; Xavi ranks 65th in att 3rd touches. First rule of posting data is actually check and see if it passes common sense test, ffs.
December 1, 2025 at 4:31 PM
For context, Xavi ranks 172nd in the PL in total touches; the top 15 in that list includes 6 midfielders, among them Bruno F and Szoboszlai; Xavi ranks 65th in att 3rd touches. First rule of posting data is actually check and see if it passes common sense test, ffs.
This is so tedious. If you're going to claim Xavi is 90th percentile in the top 5 leagues for total touches when he's not even 70th percentile for total touches in the Premier League, at least post your source, man. And also ...
December 1, 2025 at 4:15 PM
This is so tedious. If you're going to claim Xavi is 90th percentile in the top 5 leagues for total touches when he's not even 70th percentile for total touches in the Premier League, at least post your source, man. And also ...
Here is the distribution of touches in the Spurs squad this season. What you're seeing here is a side that knock it around in their own half and play through wide channels. Xavi might as well not exist in this side. It's to his credit actually that he gets on the ball as much as he does when on.
December 1, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Here is the distribution of touches in the Spurs squad this season. What you're seeing here is a side that knock it around in their own half and play through wide channels. Xavi might as well not exist in this side. It's to his credit actually that he gets on the ball as much as he does when on.
Yeah, and you're wrong, because he's not even a high-usage player in the context of Spurs because he's underplayed; he has the same minutes as injured players and subs. And the graph we're both responding to is not a graph of 'within the context of Spurs' it's his general performance. ...
December 1, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Yeah, and you're wrong, because he's not even a high-usage player in the context of Spurs because he's underplayed; he has the same minutes as injured players and subs. And the graph we're both responding to is not a graph of 'within the context of Spurs' it's his general performance. ...
For one, Spurs are 10th in total touches in the attacking 3rd; two; you're using p90 bc Xavi only has 6.8 90s; three, his relatively high total final 3rd touches in a low-touch side if anything reflects well on his possession. Nothing you said here is evidence against my claim; some is evidence for.
December 1, 2025 at 8:02 AM
For one, Spurs are 10th in total touches in the attacking 3rd; two; you're using p90 bc Xavi only has 6.8 90s; three, his relatively high total final 3rd touches in a low-touch side if anything reflects well on his possession. Nothing you said here is evidence against my claim; some is evidence for.
Possession same for both halves so far, but I do think territory is they key difference:
November 29, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Possession same for both halves so far, but I do think territory is they key difference:
Indeed, for 45 out of 60 games (36 of 60 with 1 of 2 CBs someone playing out of position), to be exact:
November 28, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Indeed, for 45 out of 60 games (36 of 60 with 1 of 2 CBs someone playing out of position), to be exact:
Well after adjustments this turned out to be wrong. Yet another xG 'loss.'
November 27, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Well after adjustments this turned out to be wrong. Yet another xG 'loss.'