Lukas Dufka
@poorlyevolved.bsky.social
Writer, The Forecheck newsletter.
Forget about fact checking, get into fact forecasting.
Cut my teeth at @denikn.cz,
poorlyevolved @ Letterboxd, Goodreads
#AnaheimDucks
Forget about fact checking, get into fact forecasting.
Cut my teeth at @denikn.cz,
poorlyevolved @ Letterboxd, Goodreads
#AnaheimDucks
Pinned
Crystal Spitball #1
Russia will lose its war against Ukraine
And next year will be the beginning of the end.
forecheck.leaflet.pub
If future historians compare Putin's military achievements with those of the Tsars, it will not be Peter the Great they'll choose. The way things stand today, it might very well turn out to be the hapless Nicholas II.
She will try to bribe him with the prize and he will, of course, accept it, the Nobel committee be damned. Perhaps then we can finally retire this charade of an award that already lost all credibility when Kissinger got it.
#forecheck
#forecheck
Live updates: Trump to meet with Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado | CNN Politics
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump today. Follow for live updates.
edition.cnn.com
January 15, 2026 at 4:38 PM
She will try to bribe him with the prize and he will, of course, accept it, the Nobel committee be damned. Perhaps then we can finally retire this charade of an award that already lost all credibility when Kissinger got it.
#forecheck
#forecheck
It’s just a matter of time before ICE kill another unarmed civilian that will be promptly labeled a domestic terrorist.
That’s when it needs to sink in that anyone not fully cooperating with anything ICE does will eventually receive the same brand and the same treatment.
#forecheck
That’s when it needs to sink in that anyone not fully cooperating with anything ICE does will eventually receive the same brand and the same treatment.
#forecheck
January 15, 2026 at 3:46 AM
It’s just a matter of time before ICE kill another unarmed civilian that will be promptly labeled a domestic terrorist.
That’s when it needs to sink in that anyone not fully cooperating with anything ICE does will eventually receive the same brand and the same treatment.
#forecheck
That’s when it needs to sink in that anyone not fully cooperating with anything ICE does will eventually receive the same brand and the same treatment.
#forecheck
If you're a family that earns a dollar over $100,800 your income tax goes up by 10%.
If you're a freaking billionaire, say Larry Page of Google, you will rather spend $173.5 million on properties in Miami than pay a one-time tax of 5% because.... no, I got nothing.
If you're a freaking billionaire, say Larry Page of Google, you will rather spend $173.5 million on properties in Miami than pay a one-time tax of 5% because.... no, I got nothing.
How Much A Billionaire Tax Might Cost Mark Zuckerberg Or Kim Kardashian
The Golden State’s billionaires might have to hand over anywhere from $50 million to $13 billion apiece, depending on their individual net worths.
www.forbes.com
January 14, 2026 at 9:48 PM
If you're a family that earns a dollar over $100,800 your income tax goes up by 10%.
If you're a freaking billionaire, say Larry Page of Google, you will rather spend $173.5 million on properties in Miami than pay a one-time tax of 5% because.... no, I got nothing.
If you're a freaking billionaire, say Larry Page of Google, you will rather spend $173.5 million on properties in Miami than pay a one-time tax of 5% because.... no, I got nothing.
The only consequence of this insane policy will be a spike in child mortality in the US, while their autism rates will rise merrily along the current trajectory, simply because doctors are getting better at spotting it.
#forecheck
#forecheck
‘Astounding’ vaccine change puts US behind peer countries, experts warn
Scientists predict increased disease outbreaks after Trump officials no longer recommend third of childhood vaccines
www.theguardian.com
January 13, 2026 at 4:22 PM
The only consequence of this insane policy will be a spike in child mortality in the US, while their autism rates will rise merrily along the current trajectory, simply because doctors are getting better at spotting it.
#forecheck
#forecheck
What a pity it would be if this man escaped punishment by dying in his bed. Still, will be fun seeing how his little fiefdom falls apart after he checks out.
Ukrainian intelligence sources reportedly say Chechen leader Kadyrov is suffering from kidney failure
Media outlets have reported, citing sources in Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), that the health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has deteriorated and he is undergoing dialysis due to kidney fail...
www.pravda.com.ua
January 13, 2026 at 12:41 AM
What a pity it would be if this man escaped punishment by dying in his bed. Still, will be fun seeing how his little fiefdom falls apart after he checks out.
Reposted by Lukas Dufka
I'm fine with this so long as they also apply it to wealthy people who are given massive tax breaks on capital gains, including unrealized gains, retirement savings, and more, and stash money in offshore accounts to escape taxation.
Bessent: "For individuals who want to wire money out of the country, they're gonna have to tick a box whether they are or are not on public assistance. Then we're going to start pushing over the coming days and weeks that if you're on public assistance, you cannot wire money out of the country."
January 12, 2026 at 9:39 PM
I'm fine with this so long as they also apply it to wealthy people who are given massive tax breaks on capital gains, including unrealized gains, retirement savings, and more, and stash money in offshore accounts to escape taxation.
Fact Forecast of world politics for this week is out. Check it out and let me know your own predictions.
Fact Forecast #2
A preview of what's coming in world politics this week, and a review of what I got right last week.
forecheck.leaflet.pub
January 12, 2026 at 9:38 PM
Fact Forecast of world politics for this week is out. Check it out and let me know your own predictions.
Reposted by Lukas Dufka
This is your regular reminder that authoritarianism is just domestic abuse writ large.
ICE agent screaming a threat: "Did you not learn from what just happened?"
www.reddit.com/r/Minneapoli...
www.reddit.com/r/Minneapoli...
January 12, 2026 at 3:04 AM
This is your regular reminder that authoritarianism is just domestic abuse writ large.
Let the pundits pontificate about the oil reserves, the international law or the Monroe doctrine. Referring to concepts that most people can't follow helps them justifiy their salaries.
Meanwhile, it's just the little Marco Rubio scrambling to get anointed as Trump's heir.
#venezuela
Meanwhile, it's just the little Marco Rubio scrambling to get anointed as Trump's heir.
#venezuela
January 11, 2026 at 6:22 PM
Let the pundits pontificate about the oil reserves, the international law or the Monroe doctrine. Referring to concepts that most people can't follow helps them justifiy their salaries.
Meanwhile, it's just the little Marco Rubio scrambling to get anointed as Trump's heir.
#venezuela
Meanwhile, it's just the little Marco Rubio scrambling to get anointed as Trump's heir.
#venezuela
The reason why NATO cannot work with a president like this. He learned the meaning of the word ‘protection’ from the Gambino family.
January 11, 2026 at 1:56 PM
The reason why NATO cannot work with a president like this. He learned the meaning of the word ‘protection’ from the Gambino family.
Trump's too scared to take on Venezuela's ramshackle army, so I don't believe he'd ever shoot at soldiers from an allied country in order to sate his billionaire friends' greed for Greenland. He'll keep coming up with more harebrained schemes for taking it, though, just to look as if he's trying.
January 10, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Trump's too scared to take on Venezuela's ramshackle army, so I don't believe he'd ever shoot at soldiers from an allied country in order to sate his billionaire friends' greed for Greenland. He'll keep coming up with more harebrained schemes for taking it, though, just to look as if he's trying.
When you think of all the laws, court rulings, and indeed the Constitution being broken, ignored and brazenly violated every day, I just don't see how people can still have any faith in the midterms possibly making any difference at all.
January 10, 2026 at 5:07 PM
When you think of all the laws, court rulings, and indeed the Constitution being broken, ignored and brazenly violated every day, I just don't see how people can still have any faith in the midterms possibly making any difference at all.
Exactly the opposite conclusion you should have arrived at.
If women quit X because of Grok’s deepfake nudes, the predators win – so I’m staying
If women quit X because of Grok’s deepfake nudes, the predators win – so I’m staying
If women quit X because of Grok’s deepfake nudes, the predators win – so I’m staying
www.independent.co.uk
January 10, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Exactly the opposite conclusion you should have arrived at.
"A U.S. military takeover [of Greenland] could be achieved without much difficulty," says Politico.
Well, not if Denmark decides to fight for it and at least some NATO allies choose to help.
Yes, it's an unlikely scenario, but we've lived through too many unlikely scenarios lately to ignore it.
Well, not if Denmark decides to fight for it and at least some NATO allies choose to help.
Yes, it's an unlikely scenario, but we've lived through too many unlikely scenarios lately to ignore it.
Invading Greenland? Mistake of a Lifetime - Here's why
YouTube video by MilitaryRated
www.youtube.com
January 9, 2026 at 6:27 PM
"A U.S. military takeover [of Greenland] could be achieved without much difficulty," says Politico.
Well, not if Denmark decides to fight for it and at least some NATO allies choose to help.
Yes, it's an unlikely scenario, but we've lived through too many unlikely scenarios lately to ignore it.
Well, not if Denmark decides to fight for it and at least some NATO allies choose to help.
Yes, it's an unlikely scenario, but we've lived through too many unlikely scenarios lately to ignore it.
One reason why I’m glad the AI bubble hasn’t popped yet is that Trump, despite having taken credit for supposedly having made America the hottest country on Earth, will definitely try to blame Biden for anything that goes wrong. The further into Trump’s term we get, the fewer people will buy it.
January 9, 2026 at 5:14 PM
One reason why I’m glad the AI bubble hasn’t popped yet is that Trump, despite having taken credit for supposedly having made America the hottest country on Earth, will definitely try to blame Biden for anything that goes wrong. The further into Trump’s term we get, the fewer people will buy it.
Reposted by Lukas Dufka
There are no rules, they don’t actually care about respect, decorum, bipartisanship or debate, and only pretend to do so to browbeat you into submission. Nothing is going to change until more people realise that and respond accordingly; including to the media and politicians who have failed them.
January 9, 2026 at 12:25 PM
There are no rules, they don’t actually care about respect, decorum, bipartisanship or debate, and only pretend to do so to browbeat you into submission. Nothing is going to change until more people realise that and respond accordingly; including to the media and politicians who have failed them.
Some of the organizations and causes that are as of today officially deemed contrary to the interest of the United States:
International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law.
International Union for Conservation of Nature.
International Law Commission of the UN
(the list continues below)
International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law.
International Union for Conservation of Nature.
International Law Commission of the UN
(the list continues below)
January 8, 2026 at 12:55 AM
Some of the organizations and causes that are as of today officially deemed contrary to the interest of the United States:
International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law.
International Union for Conservation of Nature.
International Law Commission of the UN
(the list continues below)
International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law.
International Union for Conservation of Nature.
International Law Commission of the UN
(the list continues below)
If future historians compare Putin's military achievements with those of the Tsars, it will not be Peter the Great they'll choose. The way things stand today, it might very well turn out to be the hapless Nicholas II.
Crystal Spitball #1
Russia will lose its war against Ukraine
And next year will be the beginning of the end.
forecheck.leaflet.pub
January 7, 2026 at 11:34 PM
If future historians compare Putin's military achievements with those of the Tsars, it will not be Peter the Great they'll choose. The way things stand today, it might very well turn out to be the hapless Nicholas II.
Things are bad these days, but at least I'm not an American.
One day your president decides to kidnap a foreign leader. The next day he threatens to annex the land of an ally. Then his secret police murders an innocent woman in broad daylight.
And it's still only Wednesday.
One day your president decides to kidnap a foreign leader. The next day he threatens to annex the land of an ally. Then his secret police murders an innocent woman in broad daylight.
And it's still only Wednesday.
January 7, 2026 at 9:03 PM
Things are bad these days, but at least I'm not an American.
One day your president decides to kidnap a foreign leader. The next day he threatens to annex the land of an ally. Then his secret police murders an innocent woman in broad daylight.
And it's still only Wednesday.
One day your president decides to kidnap a foreign leader. The next day he threatens to annex the land of an ally. Then his secret police murders an innocent woman in broad daylight.
And it's still only Wednesday.
At last we have the definiton of America First:
Why invade distant countries when we can do it right here in America?
Why invade distant countries when we can do it right here in America?
Ogles: "It's important that we have a stake in Greenland, that they are quite frankly a protectorate of the US. They've been in relationship with Denmark - that needs to end. We've spilled more blood protecting Greenland than the Danes... we are the dominant predator force in the Western Hemisphere"
January 7, 2026 at 3:23 PM
At last we have the definiton of America First:
Why invade distant countries when we can do it right here in America?
Why invade distant countries when we can do it right here in America?
This shit must be so confusing to those of us who only recently joined the live stream of Trumpian consciousness.
I know this may be hard to accept, but most of what the president says is happening, is only happening inside of his own mind.
I know this may be hard to accept, but most of what the president says is happening, is only happening inside of his own mind.
January 7, 2026 at 2:07 AM
This shit must be so confusing to those of us who only recently joined the live stream of Trumpian consciousness.
I know this may be hard to accept, but most of what the president says is happening, is only happening inside of his own mind.
I know this may be hard to accept, but most of what the president says is happening, is only happening inside of his own mind.
Just curious: are the exiled Venezuelans still dancing in the streets and chanting Donald Trump's name?
January 5, 2026 at 9:48 PM
Just curious: are the exiled Venezuelans still dancing in the streets and chanting Donald Trump's name?
Check out my new blog.
Fact Forecast #1
A weekly preview of what's next in world politics, laced with my informed guesswork.
forecheck.leaflet.pub
January 5, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Check out my new blog.
Trump's plan for a United Oil Company in Caracas might go very much the same way his plan for Trump Riviera has gone in Gaza, unless he's prepared to invade or the Bolivarian regime folds up. And so far, there's no signs of either happening.
January 3, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Trump's plan for a United Oil Company in Caracas might go very much the same way his plan for Trump Riviera has gone in Gaza, unless he's prepared to invade or the Bolivarian regime folds up. And so far, there's no signs of either happening.