Oyster Analytics
@oysteranalytics.bsky.social
Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent. Made it to Bluesky!
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
Check out our shiny app: https://oysteranalytics.shinyapps.io/HitterProjections/
Genao is displaying elite contact skills in the Dominican Winter League after a decent 2025 in AA. While he didn't rise quite as some hoped heading into last season, Genao had similar struggles in his A-Ball debut, but grew his game in the following season. Expect similar in '26!
November 25, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Genao is displaying elite contact skills in the Dominican Winter League after a decent 2025 in AA. While he didn't rise quite as some hoped heading into last season, Genao had similar struggles in his A-Ball debut, but grew his game in the following season. Expect similar in '26!
As we continue to showcase our Next Gen Oyster Model, take a look at this comparison between two toolshed prospects! We love them both, but De Vries has shown an improved ability to tap into his raw power.
November 21, 2025 at 10:39 PM
As we continue to showcase our Next Gen Oyster Model, take a look at this comparison between two toolshed prospects! We love them both, but De Vries has shown an improved ability to tap into his raw power.
Reposted by Oyster Analytics
What prospects stand out to you? Who do you think we're too bullish on?
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
What prospects stand out to you? Who do you think we're too bullish on?
Reposted by Oyster Analytics
To celebrate the expansion of our relationship, we wanted to share our introduction of the Next-Gen Oyster Model, keeping our readers on the cutting edge of prospecting:
Introducing the Next Gen Oyster Model
We outline improvements to our prospect projection model and explore what its evolution tells us about player evaluation
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
To celebrate the expansion of our relationship, we wanted to share our introduction of the Next-Gen Oyster Model, keeping our readers on the cutting edge of prospecting:
Reposted by Oyster Analytics
Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!
Check out Jordan's updated C/R/S percentages! For our soon-to-debut improved Oyster model, we retooled our WAR thresholds, going from .25/1/2.5 to .5/1.5/3. This, with our shift to measuring peak WAR, allows for aggressive and clearer evals. An article on the new model is coming!
November 20, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Check out Jordan's updated C/R/S percentages! For our soon-to-debut improved Oyster model, we retooled our WAR thresholds, going from .25/1/2.5 to .5/1.5/3. This, with our shift to measuring peak WAR, allows for aggressive and clearer evals. An article on the new model is coming!
Teasing the new model format with an unprotected prospect in Blaze Jordan. We love him; he makes our T100 with solid contact skills that give him a good ceiling. If he can turn some GB into LD or FB, he'll further boost his contact. Solid bench bat in year one, we'd pick him up!
November 19, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Teasing the new model format with an unprotected prospect in Blaze Jordan. We love him; he makes our T100 with solid contact skills that give him a good ceiling. If he can turn some GB into LD or FB, he'll further boost his contact. Solid bench bat in year one, we'd pick him up!
¡Jadher es un prospecto enorme con el techo altísimo! He's small and has a unique swing, but don't let it distract from his hype: he's got great contact skills and decent pop, and nearly never Ks. With a plus glove as well, he deserves real buzz! If the power grows more... whoa!
November 17, 2025 at 10:30 PM
¡Jadher es un prospecto enorme con el techo altísimo! He's small and has a unique swing, but don't let it distract from his hype: he's got great contact skills and decent pop, and nearly never Ks. With a plus glove as well, he deserves real buzz! If the power grows more... whoa!
The DUNOSAUR roars again! 4 dingers in 2 playoff games have turned around Duno's previously lukewarm fall, showcasing his top-end raw pop. An elite walker with great power and decent contact skills, Duno is a strong C and bilingual pitcher's pal behind the dish. One of our faves!
November 14, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The DUNOSAUR roars again! 4 dingers in 2 playoff games have turned around Duno's previously lukewarm fall, showcasing his top-end raw pop. An elite walker with great power and decent contact skills, Duno is a strong C and bilingual pitcher's pal behind the dish. One of our faves!
Check out yesterday's Arizona Fall League Analysis piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social! We look at the breakout performances and cold streaks to see how much the fall season affects a prospect’s future outcomes. Check it out below:
Arizona Fall League Heaters (and Droughts): Signal or Noise?
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Check out yesterday's Arizona Fall League Analysis piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social! We look at the breakout performances and cold streaks to see how much the fall season affects a prospect’s future outcomes. Check it out below:
Our improved Oyster Model is still in production, but these two players are shining through! Tony Blanco Jr. has some of the best power/age/level of any prospect we've tracked, and William Bergolla has the best contact skills. Flawed? Sure. But the model believes!
November 11, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Our improved Oyster Model is still in production, but these two players are shining through! Tony Blanco Jr. has some of the best power/age/level of any prospect we've tracked, and William Bergolla has the best contact skills. Flawed? Sure. But the model believes!
Like most outlets, Florentino rocketed up our boards in '25. Our model loves his 50%+ FB rate but below 15% infield FB rate, and his plus power and discipline. Fears about K are diminished for us with his great contact rates for his power. If it travels to A+, he's T10 for sure!
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Like most outlets, Florentino rocketed up our boards in '25. Our model loves his 50%+ FB rate but below 15% infield FB rate, and his plus power and discipline. Fears about K are diminished for us with his great contact rates for his power. If it travels to A+, he's T10 for sure!
Nate George nearly cracks our T100 with his great contact skills and respectable power. Still extremely raw, George plays a good OF due to elite speed, but went an inefficient 50 for 75 in SB. He hits a ton of GB (47%), but flashed a line drive, 5 tool profile. Polarizing for sure!
November 5, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Nate George nearly cracks our T100 with his great contact skills and respectable power. Still extremely raw, George plays a good OF due to elite speed, but went an inefficient 50 for 75 in SB. He hits a ton of GB (47%), but flashed a line drive, 5 tool profile. Polarizing for sure!
The @marlins.com Starlyn Caba has lit up the AFL, hitting .327 in 67 PA, but our model is concerned with his contact. While BB are nice, they're devalued in R and A, and he's struggled to impact the game with the bat.
November 3, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The @marlins.com Starlyn Caba has lit up the AFL, hitting .327 in 67 PA, but our model is concerned with his contact. While BB are nice, they're devalued in R and A, and he's struggled to impact the game with the bat.
Anderson has been another AFL superstar in 2025, but our model holds his age against him. Despite a high power ceiling and good bat-to-ball, he put up his best work in AA as a 23YO, less than a year younger than league average. His '26 in AAA will see if the B2B can translate!
October 30, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Anderson has been another AFL superstar in 2025, but our model holds his age against him. Despite a high power ceiling and good bat-to-ball, he put up his best work in AA as a 23YO, less than a year younger than league average. His '26 in AAA will see if the B2B can translate!
Get ready for Game 3 with last week's World Series Preview! We yet again use the Oyster Sim to project the productivity of these two big-swinging lineups and highlight the difficulties of constructing the ideal postseason lineup.
World Series Preview: What Our Simulations Say About the Blue Jay and Dodger Offenses
Spoiler: we're believers in the Dodger juggernaut
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Get ready for Game 3 with last week's World Series Preview! We yet again use the Oyster Sim to project the productivity of these two big-swinging lineups and highlight the difficulties of constructing the ideal postseason lineup.
It's not hot take Tuesday, but... Valdez has been the star of the AFL, clubbing 8 dingers with flattering metrics, but the Oyster model isn't entralled by his regular season work. The power is there for sure, but most of his power was at age 21 in a hitter's park in A+.
October 23, 2025 at 10:07 PM
It's not hot take Tuesday, but... Valdez has been the star of the AFL, clubbing 8 dingers with flattering metrics, but the Oyster model isn't entralled by his regular season work. The power is there for sure, but most of his power was at age 21 in a hitter's park in A+.
For this #hottaketuesday, we have a mystery player! His closest comps are the solid company of Franklin Arias, Colt Emerson, and Miguel Vargas, and he's been a solid hitter at the R and A levels. Unheralded and unranked by most, we think he's got a great shot. Who is this player?
October 21, 2025 at 8:32 PM
For this #hottaketuesday, we have a mystery player! His closest comps are the solid company of Franklin Arias, Colt Emerson, and Miguel Vargas, and he's been a solid hitter at the R and A levels. Unheralded and unranked by most, we think he's got a great shot. Who is this player?
Game 7… who do we got? One admin is rooting for the M’s! A lifetime Julio fantasy owner, I’ll be cheering for the Mariners. How about you all?
October 21, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Game 7… who do we got? One admin is rooting for the M’s! A lifetime Julio fantasy owner, I’ll be cheering for the Mariners. How about you all?
One qualm we had with the Mariners' lineup was Arozarena in the leadoff spot; we like Rodriguez's added pop there a bit more, especially with their playoff performances thus far. They've made the change for game 5; will it pay off?
ALCS Preview: Who Has the Advantage at the Plate According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster Simulator to assess whether the Blue Jays or the Mariners are truly the more potent offensive force
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:38 PM
One qualm we had with the Mariners' lineup was Arozarena in the leadoff spot; we like Rodriguez's added pop there a bit more, especially with their playoff performances thus far. They've made the change for game 5; will it pay off?
Farmelo is a rarity: an underappreciated power bat and good fielder with acceptable contact and discipline skills. Battling injuries, he had an above-average '25, but had his K-rate rise and avg fall. '26 will be key for Farmelo; can he raise his con% to a more sustainable level?
October 16, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Farmelo is a rarity: an underappreciated power bat and good fielder with acceptable contact and discipline skills. Battling injuries, he had an above-average '25, but had his K-rate rise and avg fall. '26 will be key for Farmelo; can he raise his con% to a more sustainable level?
The Jays jiggle their lineup for game 3, moving Santander to the cleanup spot, Lukes to the 2 hole, and moving Barger down. As we mentioned below, the M's likely still hold a hitting advantage, especially against the righty Bieber.
Check out our piece:
Check out our piece:
October 15, 2025 at 10:41 PM
The Jays jiggle their lineup for game 3, moving Santander to the cleanup spot, Lukes to the 2 hole, and moving Barger down. As we mentioned below, the M's likely still hold a hitting advantage, especially against the righty Bieber.
Check out our piece:
Check out our piece:
Despite favoring facing lefties this season, the Brewers were shut down by Blake Snell last night. Today, they face Yamamoto and counter with Peralta, a RHP vs RHP showdown that favors LA's bats. Read our Oyster Simulator's take on the matchup:
NLCS Breakdown: Whose Bats Reign Supreme According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster simulator to compare the star-studded Dodger offense to the above-average-Joes Brewers lineup
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Despite favoring facing lefties this season, the Brewers were shut down by Blake Snell last night. Today, they face Yamamoto and counter with Peralta, a RHP vs RHP showdown that favors LA's bats. Read our Oyster Simulator's take on the matchup:
We've got ALCS predictions! Through our new Oyster Simulator, we compare the Mariners and the Blue Jays to see which squad has the best bats. One of these teams outperforms its wRC projections in our simulated seasons. Can you guess who?
ALCS Preview: Who Has the Advantage at the Plate According to the Oyster Simulator?
We use the Oyster Simulator to assess whether the Blue Jays or the Mariners are truly the more potent offensive force
downonthefarm.substack.com
October 12, 2025 at 10:17 PM
We've got ALCS predictions! Through our new Oyster Simulator, we compare the Mariners and the Blue Jays to see which squad has the best bats. One of these teams outperforms its wRC projections in our simulated seasons. Can you guess who?
The big swinging Mendez comps to Josh Naylor, and Mendez can learn from Naylor's success. Both guys had good contact, high EV, took BB (Mendez better), and hit too many GB (Mendez worse). Naylor has upped his game by trading GB for FB; if Mendez can do the same, bat is monstrous!
October 12, 2025 at 5:59 PM
The big swinging Mendez comps to Josh Naylor, and Mendez can learn from Naylor's success. Both guys had good contact, high EV, took BB (Mendez better), and hit too many GB (Mendez worse). Naylor has upped his game by trading GB for FB; if Mendez can do the same, bat is monstrous!