Down on the Farm
@downonthefarm.bsky.social
Down on the Farm is a newsletter featuring analysis, news, notes and summaries of all things minor league baseball, prospects, and player development ⭕️
https://downonthefarm.substack.com/
https://downonthefarm.substack.com/
Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!
November 20, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Hello from the @oysteranalytics.bsky.social gang! We will be taking a bigger role in DoTF for the 2026 season, providing more content, topical research, and new ways to follow your favorite prospects! We'll be tweeting from here as well as our OG acct., and we're pumped to take you into '26!
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
Arizona Fall League Heaters (and Droughts): Signal or Noise?
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
Arizona Fall League Heaters (and Droughts): Signal or Noise?
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Does a hot or cold streak in the AFL portend future success, or merely generate misguided excitement?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/arizona-fa...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?
Over- and Under-Leveled Prospects: Who's Got the Juice?
Highlighting several of our favorite case studies, we show a path to contextualizing age in prospect prognostication
downonthefarm.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Relative age by level is one of our model's key focuses, and this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social focuses on old and young outliers. What makes older players prospects vs. overleveled stat collectors? When should we give young guys the benefit of the doubt?
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:
The 2025 Rankings Audit Part 2: How Did We Do?
We assess how our preseason hitting prospect rankings have held up
downonthefarm.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Here's part two of our 2025 preseason prospect rankings audit with @downonthefarm.bsky.social, this time, ranking ourselves! Our self-audit placed us on par with other resources, but with a much higher variance in our predictions. Catch more here:
Reposted by Down on the Farm
With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!
The Future of Challenge Strategy: Insights from ABS in Triple-A
We explore the triumphs and pitfalls of teams’ use of the ABS challenge system in 2024 in Triple-A, providing a sneak peek of MLB’s future
substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 7:08 PM
With the intro of ABS to the show, we're re-highlighting this piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social; a comprehensive look at the system in AAA. From teams using too much caution, a lack of focus on high-leverage situations, and BB% != success, there are insights galore!
Reposted by Down on the Farm
It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's our SUPER PROSPECT! We combined MiLB's best tooled stars to create a true can't miss prospect with power, speed, a great eye, no swing and miss, and the physique to match. Check out the piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social!
Building Our “Super Prospect"
Combining MiLB's Best Tools to Create a Can't Miss Star
downonthefarm.substack.com
September 4, 2025 at 3:53 PM
It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's our SUPER PROSPECT! We combined MiLB's best tooled stars to create a true can't miss prospect with power, speed, a great eye, no swing and miss, and the physique to match. Check out the piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social!
First a Breakout, Then a Star? An analysis of which Triple-A superstars conquer MLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...
First a Breakout, Then a Star?
An analysis of which Triple-A superstars conquer MLB
downonthefarm.substack.com
August 8, 2025 at 5:05 PM
First a Breakout, Then a Star? An analysis of which Triple-A superstars conquer MLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/first-a-br...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup
All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:47 PM
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup
All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:47 PM
2025 Trade Deadline Roundup: All you need to know about the hitting prospects on the move — and who stands to benefit from a change of scenery
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/2025-trade...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Today's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social researches the impact of inning length on hitting in the next half inning. We found that both short and extra-long innings affect hitters, with hitters thriving after quick innings and languishing after long ones.
Read more here:
Read more here:
Does Time Spent on Defense Impact Offensive Performance in the Next Half Inning?
We investigate whether getting back to the dugout quick helps hitters rake, and if brutal innings in the field hamper run scoring in the next half
downonthefarm.substack.com
July 30, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Today's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social researches the impact of inning length on hitting in the next half inning. We found that both short and extra-long innings affect hitters, with hitters thriving after quick innings and languishing after long ones.
Read more here:
Read more here:
Reposted by Down on the Farm
In our latest piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social we predict with perfect accuracy the 2030 NL All-Stars!
Luke Adams is our under-the-radar 1B pick. Friend of the program Luis Peña makes the cut but isn't playing where you'd expect. Read on to see the whole team!
Luke Adams is our under-the-radar 1B pick. Friend of the program Luis Peña makes the cut but isn't playing where you'd expect. Read on to see the whole team!
Predicting the 2030 NL All-Star Team
A definitive look five years into the future that is guaranteed to age well
downonthefarm.substack.com
July 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
In our latest piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social we predict with perfect accuracy the 2030 NL All-Stars!
Luke Adams is our under-the-radar 1B pick. Friend of the program Luis Peña makes the cut but isn't playing where you'd expect. Read on to see the whole team!
Luke Adams is our under-the-radar 1B pick. Friend of the program Luis Peña makes the cut but isn't playing where you'd expect. Read on to see the whole team!
Reposted by Down on the Farm
It's no shock to see tons of HS SS off the board early in today's @mlbdraft.com! These premium position players outperform their peers, and teams are wise to acquire that value. Read more about draft trends in last week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social.
Where is Money Well Spent on Amateur Player Acquisitions?
A dive into past draft and international classes investigates farm building strategies
downonthefarm.substack.com
July 13, 2025 at 11:47 PM
It's no shock to see tons of HS SS off the board early in today's @mlbdraft.com! These premium position players outperform their peers, and teams are wise to acquire that value. Read more about draft trends in last week's piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social.
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
A peek into the positive and negative indicators of prospect development
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Excellent read on prospect development signals. Probably things scouting people know, but nice to see it from an analytical perspective.
@downonthefarm.bsky.social
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
@downonthefarm.bsky.social
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
A peek into the positive and negative indicators of prospect development
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Excellent read on prospect development signals. Probably things scouting people know, but nice to see it from an analytical perspective.
@downonthefarm.bsky.social
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
@downonthefarm.bsky.social
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
A peek into the positive and negative indicators of prospect development
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Promotion Politics: The How, When, and Why of Prospect Progression Through MiLB
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/promotion-...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud?
What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud?
What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Once a Shortstop, Now a Stud? What we can learn from the minor league careers of MLB's infield talent
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/once-a-sho...
Goldilocks and the Nine Prospects: A Projection Comparison -- Who do we think Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline are "too hot" on, "too cold" on, and who do they get "just right?"
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/goldilocks...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/goldilocks...
Goldilocks and the Nine Prospects: A Projection Comparison
Who do we think Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline are "too hot" on, "too cold" on, and who do they get "just right?"
downonthefarm.substack.com
June 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Goldilocks and the Nine Prospects: A Projection Comparison -- Who do we think Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline are "too hot" on, "too cold" on, and who do they get "just right?"
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/goldilocks...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/goldilocks...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
We advocate for the promotion of guys who have nothing left to prove where they’re currently stationed
downonthefarm.substack.com
May 29, 2025 at 12:13 PM
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
This is quite sobering, but I wonder if teams consider that ~5% probability of meaningful strikeout improvement to be acceptable?
Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...
Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up?
A trait-centered analysis of prospect development
downonthefarm.substack.com
May 22, 2025 at 2:53 PM
This is quite sobering, but I wonder if teams consider that ~5% probability of meaningful strikeout improvement to be acceptable?
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
We advocate for the promotion of guys who have nothing left to prove where they’re currently stationed
downonthefarm.substack.com
May 29, 2025 at 12:13 PM
The "Get Me Out of Here" Team: Nine Prospects Who Deserve a Promotion
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-get-me...
Reposted by Down on the Farm
Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...
Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up?
A trait-centered analysis of prospect development
downonthefarm.substack.com
May 22, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Tools that Stick and Missing Links: How Do Prospects Level Up?
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...
downonthefarm.substack.com/p/tools-that...