Noble Francis
@noblefrancis.bsky.social
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housebuilding.
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
UK construction firms reported hopes of a rebound in market conditions & lower interest rates in the next 12 months in November 2025, offset by signs of cuts to clients' investment spending plans & concerns over long-term UK economic growth. (7/end)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 10:07 AM
UK construction firms reported hopes of a rebound in market conditions & lower interest rates in the next 12 months in November 2025, offset by signs of cuts to clients' investment spending plans & concerns over long-term UK economic growth. (7/end)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI in November 2025 reported that the % of firms expecting a rise in activity in the next 12 months (31%) was slightly higher than those expecting a fall (25%), its lowest degree of optimism since December 2022. (6/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI in November 2025 reported that the % of firms expecting a rise in activity in the next 12 months (31%) was slightly higher than those expecting a fall (25%), its lowest degree of optimism since December 2022. (6/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI in November 2025 also highlighted employment fell for the 11th consecutive month, its steepest fall since August 2020, reflecting a lack of new work to replace completed projects & wage pressures. (5/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 10:00 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI in November 2025 also highlighted employment fell for the 11th consecutive month, its steepest fall since August 2020, reflecting a lack of new work to replace completed projects & wage pressures. (5/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
... with respondents in November 2025 highlighting fragile market confidence, delays with the release of new projects & a lack of incoming new work, unsurprisingly, given the high level of uncertainty before the government's Autumn Budget. (4/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:55 AM
... with respondents in November 2025 highlighting fragile market confidence, delays with the release of new projects & a lack of incoming new work, unsurprisingly, given the high level of uncertainty before the government's Autumn Budget. (4/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Looking at the sector breakdown of the S&P Global UK Construction PMI for November 2025, house building (35.4), commercial construction (43.8) & civil engineering (30.0) all had their sharpest falls in activity for 5 & 1/2 years, with... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Looking at the sector breakdown of the S&P Global UK Construction PMI for November 2025, house building (35.4), commercial construction (43.8) & civil engineering (30.0) all had their sharpest falls in activity for 5 & 1/2 years, with... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI also showed its fastest downturn in construction new orders since the financial crisis in 2009, due to caution amongst clients, concerns over the UK economy & higher uncertainty ahead of the government's Autumn Budget. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:48 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI also showed its fastest downturn in construction new orders since the financial crisis in 2009, due to caution amongst clients, concerns over the UK economy & higher uncertainty ahead of the government's Autumn Budget. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:45 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Another illustration of the ONS data problems in the largest construction sector. According to the ONS, house building output in 2025 Q2 was only 1% lower than in 2021 (the 'race for space' spike in house building activity) but MHCLG house building completions in 2025 Q2 were 18% lower.
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
December 2, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Another illustration of the ONS data problems in the largest construction sector. According to the ONS, house building output in 2025 Q2 was only 1% lower than in 2021 (the 'race for space' spike in house building activity) but MHCLG house building completions in 2025 Q2 were 18% lower.
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
In ONS data problem news... either UK construction productivity has improved 19.7% since 2019, pre-pandemic, (note: it hasn't) or there are serious issues with ONS construction output data (that feeds into UK GDP) &/or ONS construction employment data.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
December 2, 2025 at 9:37 AM
In ONS data problem news... either UK construction productivity has improved 19.7% since 2019, pre-pandemic, (note: it hasn't) or there are serious issues with ONS construction output data (that feeds into UK GDP) &/or ONS construction employment data.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
The OBR now forecasts 1.49 million net additional dwellings in the UK between 2024/25 & 2029/30, which is politically convenient to say the least. Note the government's 1.5 million new homes target is England only.
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The OBR now forecasts 1.49 million net additional dwellings in the UK between 2024/25 & 2029/30, which is politically convenient to say the least. Note the government's 1.5 million new homes target is England only.
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
... a slowdown in house builder demand & sales rates, a sharp fall in London house building due to BSR delays on high-rise starts & site viability issues & a hiatus in housing association house building.
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
... a slowdown in house builder demand & sales rates, a sharp fall in London house building due to BSR delays on high-rise starts & site viability issues & a hiatus in housing association house building.
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
The OBR's latest economic forecasts alongside the Budget says net additional new homes in 2023/24 & 2024/25 were lower than it expected but they will be much higher than expected this year (2025/26)??? despite...
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The OBR's latest economic forecasts alongside the Budget says net additional new homes in 2023/24 & 2024/25 were lower than it expected but they will be much higher than expected this year (2025/26)??? despite...
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
The 1 key positive of the Autumn Budget will be the end of the pre-Budget uncertainty that government has made worse by leaking lots of potential policies to the press to see the PR impact. Then we can see the real impact of the Budget itself. (16/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:20 AM
The 1 key positive of the Autumn Budget will be the end of the pre-Budget uncertainty that government has made worse by leaking lots of potential policies to the press to see the PR impact. Then we can see the real impact of the Budget itself. (16/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... even if there are no negative impacts from the Autumn Budget & if the economy, house building & construction is better than expected in the next 2-3 years (a big ‘if’ currently), then a lack of skills & capacity constraints may be an issue. (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:15 AM
... even if there are no negative impacts from the Autumn Budget & if the economy, house building & construction is better than expected in the next 2-3 years (a big ‘if’ currently), then a lack of skills & capacity constraints may be an issue. (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the high level of uncertainty over where tax rises will be & its affects plus the Autumn Budget being pushed back to the end of November means that firms have had to be (over)cautious for next year. So,... (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:12 AM
... the high level of uncertainty over where tax rises will be & its affects plus the Autumn Budget being pushed back to the end of November means that firms have had to be (over)cautious for next year. So,... (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Secondly, September & October are when most firms in the construction supply chain (architects, house builders, contractors, subcontractors, builders merchants & manufacturers) do budgets & business investment plans for the year ahead. But,... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Secondly, September & October are when most firms in the construction supply chain (architects, house builders, contractors, subcontractors, builders merchants & manufacturers) do budgets & business investment plans for the year ahead. But,... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
In other construction sectors, the high level of uncertainty & high value of new build or 'back to frame' commercial projects (which are often £200 million or more) means investors & clients have adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:06 AM
In other construction sectors, the high level of uncertainty & high value of new build or 'back to frame' commercial projects (which are often £200 million or more) means investors & clients have adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the high level of uncertainty over potential tax rises in the Autumn Budget has led to poor consumer confidence, especially for large, discretionary spending on home improvements, & homeowners have chosen to save rather than spend. (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:03 AM
... the high level of uncertainty over potential tax rises in the Autumn Budget has led to poor consumer confidence, especially for large, discretionary spending on home improvements, & homeowners have chosen to save rather than spend. (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
In terms of housing rm&i, that is heavily reliant on homeowners. Many homeowners have finance available after more than 2 years (27 months) of real wage growth, which would generally have led to a rise in home improvement activity. However,... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:02 AM
In terms of housing rm&i, that is heavily reliant on homeowners. Many homeowners have finance available after more than 2 years (27 months) of real wage growth, which would generally have led to a rise in home improvement activity. However,... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the S&P Global UK Construction PMI index for housing was 43.6 in October (50=no monthly change in activity), so a further fall & it was at its lowest level in eight months. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 11:00 AM
... the S&P Global UK Construction PMI index for housing was 43.6 in October (50=no monthly change in activity), so a further fall & it was at its lowest level in eight months. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
For instance, Barratt Redrow reported that in the 17-week period from 1 July 2024 to 27 October 2024, its net private reservation rate per week was 0.572, compared with 0.59 a year ago. In addition... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:59 AM
For instance, Barratt Redrow reported that in the 17-week period from 1 July 2024 to 27 October 2024, its net private reservation rate per week was 0.572, compared with 0.59 a year ago. In addition... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... house building demand has slowed significantly since Spring with no sign of a pickup in Autumn, before the quiet Winter period for the construction industry. Many house builders reported recent sales rates were even lower than a year ago. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:57 AM
... house building demand has slowed significantly since Spring with no sign of a pickup in Autumn, before the quiet Winter period for the construction industry. Many house builders reported recent sales rates were even lower than a year ago. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... private house builders (who build more than 3/4 of new homes) were expecting a year ago that, with sustained real wage growth & lower interest rates, demand in 2025 would gradually accelerate throughout the year. However,... (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:52 AM
... private house builders (who build more than 3/4 of new homes) were expecting a year ago that, with sustained real wage growth & lower interest rates, demand in 2025 would gradually accelerate throughout the year. However,... (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
The 2 largest construction sectors are housing new build & repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). A year ago, new house building was very subdued, following a 20-30% decline in new house building completions between 2022 & 2024 but... (5/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:50 AM
The 2 largest construction sectors are housing new build & repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). A year ago, new house building was very subdued, following a 20-30% decline in new house building completions between 2022 & 2024 but... (5/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
In terms of impacts down on the ground, the S&P Global UK Construction PMI in October was its 10th consecutive monthly fall, its longest period of decline since the financial crisis over 15 years ago. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:47 AM
In terms of impacts down on the ground, the S&P Global UK Construction PMI in October was its 10th consecutive monthly fall, its longest period of decline since the financial crisis over 15 years ago. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction