Noble Francis
@noblefrancis.bsky.social
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housebuilding.
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Reposted by Noble Francis
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:45 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 9:45 AM
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
In ONS data problem news... either UK construction productivity has improved 19.7% since 2019, pre-pandemic, (note: it hasn't) or there are serious issues with ONS construction output data (that feeds into UK GDP) &/or ONS construction employment data.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
December 2, 2025 at 9:37 AM
In ONS data problem news... either UK construction productivity has improved 19.7% since 2019, pre-pandemic, (note: it hasn't) or there are serious issues with ONS construction output data (that feeds into UK GDP) &/or ONS construction employment data.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Also note that in March's OBR forecast, it forecast 1.3 million net additional dwellings in the UK between 2025/26 & 2029/30 (5 years), but in the latest OBR forecast, it has now added in an extra year to bump it up to 1.49 million over 6 years between 2024/25 & 2029/30)!
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
The OBR now forecasts 1.49 million net additional dwellings in the UK between 2024/25 & 2029/30, which is politically convenient to say the least. Note the government's 1.5 million new homes target is England only.
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Also note that in March's OBR forecast, it forecast 1.3 million net additional dwellings in the UK between 2025/26 & 2029/30 (5 years), but in the latest OBR forecast, it has now added in an extra year to bump it up to 1.49 million over 6 years between 2024/25 & 2029/30)!
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
The OBR's latest economic forecasts alongside the Budget says net additional new homes in 2023/24 & 2024/25 were lower than it expected but they will be much higher than expected this year (2025/26)??? despite...
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The OBR's latest economic forecasts alongside the Budget says net additional new homes in 2023/24 & 2024/25 were lower than it expected but they will be much higher than expected this year (2025/26)??? despite...
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
#autumnbudget #AutumnBudget2025 #AutumnBudget25 #Budget #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
OBR net additions forecast
"This leaves cumulative net additions between
2024-25 and 2029-30 at 1.49 million, around 10,000 lower than in March" (for UK, not England)
"This leaves cumulative net additions between
2024-25 and 2029-30 at 1.49 million, around 10,000 lower than in March" (for UK, not England)
November 26, 2025 at 12:06 PM
OBR net additions forecast
"This leaves cumulative net additions between
2024-25 and 2029-30 at 1.49 million, around 10,000 lower than in March" (for UK, not England)
"This leaves cumulative net additions between
2024-25 and 2029-30 at 1.49 million, around 10,000 lower than in March" (for UK, not England)
Reposted by Noble Francis
Before the impacts of the Autumn Budget itself on the UK economy, house building & construction, a thread on the negative impacts of the pre-Budget uncertainty on house building & construction... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Before the impacts of the Autumn Budget itself on the UK economy, house building & construction, a thread on the negative impacts of the pre-Budget uncertainty on house building & construction... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Before the impacts of the Autumn Budget itself on the UK economy, house building & construction, a thread on the negative impacts of the pre-Budget uncertainty on house building & construction... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 26, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Before the impacts of the Autumn Budget itself on the UK economy, house building & construction, a thread on the negative impacts of the pre-Budget uncertainty on house building & construction... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
This is not suggestive of ‘build, build, build’.
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:23 AM
This is not suggestive of ‘build, build, build’.
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 9:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 9:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Total house building activity in June 2025 was 0.8% higher than in May (after May's 1.0% fall) & 2.7% higher than a low base a year ago but still 17.5% lower than the recent peak in October 2022, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
August 14, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Total house building activity in June 2025 was 0.8% higher than in May (after May's 1.0% fall) & 2.7% higher than a low base a year ago but still 17.5% lower than the recent peak in October 2022, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
August 12, 2025 at 8:44 AM
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
August 12, 2025 at 8:44 AM
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in June 2025 were 1.0% lower than in May & 16.3% higher than a low base a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
August 6, 2025 at 8:49 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in June 2025 were 1.0% lower than in May & 16.3% higher than a low base a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
The number of new house building registrations in the UK in 2025 Q2 was 4% higher than a low base a year ago according to NHBC (which covers around 70% of the house building sector) but... (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 31, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The number of new house building registrations in the UK in 2025 Q2 was 4% higher than a low base a year ago according to NHBC (which covers around 70% of the house building sector) but... (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
on.ft.com
July 31, 2025 at 5:41 AM
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
Reposted by Noble Francis
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing