Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
Now: Principal Economist @rooseveltinstitute.org & Roosevelt Forward. Then: @equitablegrowth |@JECDems | @amprog | @RFF | @UCSDecon | @BrookingsEcon.
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
Pinned
Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Refreshed this
Ping if I missed you!
Ping if I missed you!
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
My personal theory of the vibecession remains that a not insignificant part of the problem is that normally very comfortable people are feeling slightly uncomfortable and it's throwing everybody off www.businessinsider.com/millennial-e...
Why millennials don't feel richer than boomers — even though they are
Rich millennials are doing OK, but they feel terrible about their finances and the economy. They're comparing themselves to peers and boomer parents.
www.businessinsider.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:51 PM
My personal theory of the vibecession remains that a not insignificant part of the problem is that normally very comfortable people are feeling slightly uncomfortable and it's throwing everybody off www.businessinsider.com/millennial-e...
I hasten to point out that the vibes are still worse than this data.
It probably helps the admin that we're starting to get this flow restarted vs a shutdown where it was exclusively bad vibes
But the data:
- Better than vibes
- not good.
It probably helps the admin that we're starting to get this flow restarted vs a shutdown where it was exclusively bad vibes
But the data:
- Better than vibes
- not good.
*US SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.6%
November 25, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I hasten to point out that the vibes are still worse than this data.
It probably helps the admin that we're starting to get this flow restarted vs a shutdown where it was exclusively bad vibes
But the data:
- Better than vibes
- not good.
It probably helps the admin that we're starting to get this flow restarted vs a shutdown where it was exclusively bad vibes
But the data:
- Better than vibes
- not good.
Outsourcing energy policy update:
1) basically zero gains for drivers 👇
2) loss of 4K 'oil & gas extraction' jobs 😬
3) prices can't really fall from here, so we're kinda hostages to petrostates next year 🫣
H/T: @deanbaker13.bsky.social
1) basically zero gains for drivers 👇
2) loss of 4K 'oil & gas extraction' jobs 😬
3) prices can't really fall from here, so we're kinda hostages to petrostates next year 🫣
H/T: @deanbaker13.bsky.social
November 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Outsourcing energy policy update:
1) basically zero gains for drivers 👇
2) loss of 4K 'oil & gas extraction' jobs 😬
3) prices can't really fall from here, so we're kinda hostages to petrostates next year 🫣
H/T: @deanbaker13.bsky.social
1) basically zero gains for drivers 👇
2) loss of 4K 'oil & gas extraction' jobs 😬
3) prices can't really fall from here, so we're kinda hostages to petrostates next year 🫣
H/T: @deanbaker13.bsky.social
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
wholesale food prices are up 4.0% over the last year www.bls.gov/news.release...
Table 1. Producer price index percent changes and weights for Final Demand - Intermediate Demand groupings, seasonally adjusted
- 2025 M09 Results
www.bls.gov
November 25, 2025 at 1:37 PM
wholesale food prices are up 4.0% over the last year www.bls.gov/news.release...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Wendy Edelberg, former chief economist for the Congressional
budget Office, explains why keeping immigrants out of the US will not create a booming labor market for those already here. On the contrary, she writes, “making America less hospitable to immigrants will eventually make America poorer.”
budget Office, explains why keeping immigrants out of the US will not create a booming labor market for those already here. On the contrary, she writes, “making America less hospitable to immigrants will eventually make America poorer.”
Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like
www.nytimes.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Wendy Edelberg, former chief economist for the Congressional
budget Office, explains why keeping immigrants out of the US will not create a booming labor market for those already here. On the contrary, she writes, “making America less hospitable to immigrants will eventually make America poorer.”
budget Office, explains why keeping immigrants out of the US will not create a booming labor market for those already here. On the contrary, she writes, “making America less hospitable to immigrants will eventually make America poorer.”
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Lots of great work out there on how students don't learn as well when it's hot out -- but guess what! Teachers don't teach as well, either!
Read on for a great paper on how heat and learning is as much a *labor* question as it is a *kids* question.
Read on for a great paper on how heat and learning is as much a *labor* question as it is a *kids* question.
Hi! I’m Mary and I’m on the #EconJobMarket this year.
Extreme heat doesn’t just affect students, it affects the people teaching them.
JMP 🧵:
Extreme heat doesn’t just affect students, it affects the people teaching them.
JMP 🧵:
November 21, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Lots of great work out there on how students don't learn as well when it's hot out -- but guess what! Teachers don't teach as well, either!
Read on for a great paper on how heat and learning is as much a *labor* question as it is a *kids* question.
Read on for a great paper on how heat and learning is as much a *labor* question as it is a *kids* question.
75 followers!
Congressional Budget Office
Nonpartisan Analysis for the U.S. Congress. Congressional Budget Office has 6 repositories available. Follow their code on GitHub.
github.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:38 PM
75 followers!
If Eugene Fama wasn't not dead, he'd be rolling in his grave right now
(I'm bastardizing one of my favorite @pkrugman.bsky.social quotes of all time)
(I'm bastardizing one of my favorite @pkrugman.bsky.social quotes of all time)
The boys at UChicago smirking right now because they proved once again, they're breaking new ground and Harvard follows after the fact.
stanfordreview.org/uchicago-los...
stanfordreview.org/uchicago-los...
UChicago Lost Money on Crypto, Then Froze Research When Federal Funding Was Cut
While Stanford responded to the federal funding research freeze by halting administrative hiring and protecting research, the University of Chicago panicked.
On January 28, hours after the Trump admi...
stanfordreview.org
November 21, 2025 at 3:25 PM
If Eugene Fama wasn't not dead, he'd be rolling in his grave right now
(I'm bastardizing one of my favorite @pkrugman.bsky.social quotes of all time)
(I'm bastardizing one of my favorite @pkrugman.bsky.social quotes of all time)
We love to see it!
Hey, #EconSky!
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
November 21, 2025 at 3:20 PM
We love to see it!
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I know that Trump has told everyone not to pay attention to FAKE PRICES, but the fake gasoline prices that people pay at the pump are 1% higher than they were a year ago gasprices.aaa.com
AAA Fuel Prices
gasprices.aaa.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:18 PM
I know that Trump has told everyone not to pay attention to FAKE PRICES, but the fake gasoline prices that people pay at the pump are 1% higher than they were a year ago gasprices.aaa.com
This is an even better article than it sounds like, but to anyone who works w/ data viz this is hilariously out of date
Maps outperform the dumbest chart you can think of by a staggering margin, no matter how much dumber
nymag.com/intelligence...
Maps outperform the dumbest chart you can think of by a staggering margin, no matter how much dumber
nymag.com/intelligence...
November 21, 2025 at 2:47 PM
This is an even better article than it sounds like, but to anyone who works w/ data viz this is hilariously out of date
Maps outperform the dumbest chart you can think of by a staggering margin, no matter how much dumber
nymag.com/intelligence...
Maps outperform the dumbest chart you can think of by a staggering margin, no matter how much dumber
nymag.com/intelligence...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
CBPP Chief Economist @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social provides analysis on the September jobs report, and details what's at stake when economic data is delayed.
youtube.com/shorts/XeTRz...
youtube.com/shorts/XeTRz...
The September Jobs Report Is Out. But What Happens When Data Is Delayed?
YouTube video by Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
youtube.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:24 PM
CBPP Chief Economist @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social provides analysis on the September jobs report, and details what's at stake when economic data is delayed.
youtube.com/shorts/XeTRz...
youtube.com/shorts/XeTRz...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
winter is here
my wife just said "the larry summers of our discontent" and i had to sit down for a minute
November 20, 2025 at 12:55 AM
winter is here
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Good update on Kinder Morgan plans for expanding refined product distributions to Arizona, California, and Nevada. This would be a benefit to producers and customers, but not clear there is enough value to shippers for the investment.
stillwaterassociates.com/open-season-...
🔌💡
stillwaterassociates.com/open-season-...
🔌💡
Open Season for Western Expansion: Kinder Morgan and Phillips 66 Launch Western Gateway Pipeline Connecting Midwest Supply to the Southwest and California | Stillwater Associates
Kinder Morgan and Phillips 66 announce the Western Gateway Pipeline open season, a new refined products corridor connecting Midwest supply to California, Arizona, and Nevada - reshaping Western fuel l...
stillwaterassociates.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Good update on Kinder Morgan plans for expanding refined product distributions to Arizona, California, and Nevada. This would be a benefit to producers and customers, but not clear there is enough value to shippers for the investment.
stillwaterassociates.com/open-season-...
🔌💡
stillwaterassociates.com/open-season-...
🔌💡
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
"Whether another comeback is possible for Mr. Summers and others connected to Mr. Epstein is unclear."
What's unclear seems narrower to me: The Free Press or Substack.
What's unclear seems narrower to me: The Free Press or Substack.
Lawrence Summers Has Come Back From Scandals. Will This Be His Last?
www.nytimes.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:17 AM
"Whether another comeback is possible for Mr. Summers and others connected to Mr. Epstein is unclear."
What's unclear seems narrower to me: The Free Press or Substack.
What's unclear seems narrower to me: The Free Press or Substack.
The real mvp of this job market is, once again, care work!
healthcare and social service sector led job growth in September, accounting for 57,000 of the 119,000 jobs created. Most of the rest came from restaurants (36,500) and state and local governments (25,000).
November 20, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The real mvp of this job market is, once again, care work!
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
EPI's @elisegould.bsky.social with the #JobsDay analysis you've been waiting for all shutdown.
Note: the data is for Sept BEFORE the shutdown began
Note: the data is for Sept BEFORE the shutdown began
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
EPI's @elisegould.bsky.social with the #JobsDay analysis you've been waiting for all shutdown.
Note: the data is for Sept BEFORE the shutdown began
Note: the data is for Sept BEFORE the shutdown began
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Mixed Sep #jobsreport today, as jobs data starts flowing again post-shutdown
-Payrolls grew by 119k in Sep, above expected
-Aug was revised down from +22k to -4k, a 2nd negative month following June's -13k job loss
-Unemp rises to 4.4%, highest since Oct 2021
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew by 119k in Sep, above expected
-Aug was revised down from +22k to -4k, a 2nd negative month following June's -13k job loss
-Unemp rises to 4.4%, highest since Oct 2021
#NumbersDay 1/
November 20, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Mixed Sep #jobsreport today, as jobs data starts flowing again post-shutdown
-Payrolls grew by 119k in Sep, above expected
-Aug was revised down from +22k to -4k, a 2nd negative month following June's -13k job loss
-Unemp rises to 4.4%, highest since Oct 2021
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew by 119k in Sep, above expected
-Aug was revised down from +22k to -4k, a 2nd negative month following June's -13k job loss
-Unemp rises to 4.4%, highest since Oct 2021
#NumbersDay 1/
We're making VERY slow progress towards the 2 years of 7.5% unemployment we need
IYKYK
IYKYK
This is the highest the unemployment rate has been since October 2021, when the economy was still emerging from the COVID pandemic.
November 20, 2025 at 1:44 PM
We're making VERY slow progress towards the 2 years of 7.5% unemployment we need
IYKYK
IYKYK
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Finally, the first #JobsDay since the shutdown! The latest data out today is for September before the shutdown began on October 1.
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Finally, some data!
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M09 Results
www.bls.gov
November 20, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Finally, some data!
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
Unemployment raate ticks up on a 220K increase in unemployed people & a 470K jump in the labor force (participation rate up 0.1% for a second consecutive month
(again this is stale data, but good stale data!)
(again this is stale data, but good stale data!)
November 20, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Unemployment raate ticks up on a 220K increase in unemployed people & a 470K jump in the labor force (participation rate up 0.1% for a second consecutive month
(again this is stale data, but good stale data!)
(again this is stale data, but good stale data!)
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
NEW JOBS DATA:
Non-farm Payrolls: +119k
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (+0.1%)
Prime Age (25-54) Employment-Population Ratio: 80.7% (+0%)
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%
Non-farm Payrolls: +119k
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (+0.1%)
Prime Age (25-54) Employment-Population Ratio: 80.7% (+0%)
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%
November 20, 2025 at 1:34 PM
NEW JOBS DATA:
Non-farm Payrolls: +119k
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (+0.1%)
Prime Age (25-54) Employment-Population Ratio: 80.7% (+0%)
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%
Non-farm Payrolls: +119k
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (+0.1%)
Prime Age (25-54) Employment-Population Ratio: 80.7% (+0%)
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2%
This is a pretty good jobs report overall, but basically all increase in unemployment is coming from women www.bls.gov/news.release...
November 20, 2025 at 1:34 PM
This is a pretty good jobs report overall, but basically all increase in unemployment is coming from women www.bls.gov/news.release...