Mike Honey
@mikehoney.bsky.social
Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
Effectively yes, it's excess deaths per 1 million population.
November 30, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Effectively yes, it's excess deaths per 1 million population.
Seem weird given it's negligible (negative?) impact on infection levels in Western Australia, over many months. I'd normally expect the fastest lineage to start to drive up infection levels once it hit 30-40%.
I understand most of the recent samples from Europe have similar mutations?
I understand most of the recent samples from Europe have similar mutations?
November 30, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Seem weird given it's negligible (negative?) impact on infection levels in Western Australia, over many months. I'd normally expect the fastest lineage to start to drive up infection levels once it hit 30-40%.
I understand most of the recent samples from Europe have similar mutations?
I understand most of the recent samples from Europe have similar mutations?
From the abstract "However, the induction fold change of BA.3.2 was smaller than those of JN.1 and its subvariants."
Not sure where "MikeAI" got "modest" from, but I have a sense I saw that somewhere ...
Not sure where "MikeAI" got "modest" from, but I have a sense I saw that somewhere ...
November 30, 2025 at 1:12 AM
From the abstract "However, the induction fold change of BA.3.2 was smaller than those of JN.1 and its subvariants."
Not sure where "MikeAI" got "modest" from, but I have a sense I saw that somewhere ...
Not sure where "MikeAI" got "modest" from, but I have a sense I saw that somewhere ...
Not really, all waves were driven by the arrival of a new variant that could successfully escape population immunity. The characteristics of the new variant largely determine the impact (wave size).
This June/July it was NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". January was XEC. etc etc
This June/July it was NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". January was XEC. etc etc
November 30, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Not really, all waves were driven by the arrival of a new variant that could successfully escape population immunity. The characteristics of the new variant largely determine the impact (wave size).
This June/July it was NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". January was XEC. etc etc
This June/July it was NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus". January was XEC. etc etc
Interactive World covid stats dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
github.com/Mike-Honey/c...
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github.com/Mike-Honey/c...
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GitHub - Mike-Honey/covid-19-world-vaccinations: Interactive infographic of Global COVID-19 Vaccinations
Interactive infographic of Global COVID-19 Vaccinations - Mike-Honey/covid-19-world-vaccinations
github.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Interactive World covid stats dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
github.com/Mike-Honey/c...
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github.com/Mike-Honey/c...
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The UK had two huge waves in 2020-21, peaking at +94% and +68% in the worst weeks, and +12% and +10% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The UK had two huge waves in 2020-21, peaking at +94% and +68% in the worst weeks, and +12% and +10% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Sweden had two big waves in 2020-21, peaking at +42% and +29% in the worst weeks, and +8% and +3% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Sweden had two big waves in 2020-21, peaking at +42% and +29% in the worst weeks, and +8% and +3% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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The “new normal” for Australia in the last few years is around +6% on the pre-pandemic baseline – worse than even the UK (see below). Even out to June this year (as variant evolution slowed) it was still running at +5% annually. Are there any lessons we could learn from NZ?
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The “new normal” for Australia in the last few years is around +6% on the pre-pandemic baseline – worse than even the UK (see below). Even out to June this year (as variant evolution slowed) it was still running at +5% annually. Are there any lessons we could learn from NZ?
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The results for Australia are a bit depressing tbh. After a start similar to NZ in 2020-21, the impact in late-2021-22 was more than twice as severe as in NZ. NZ skipped 2 big waves by keeping their quarantine going until Feb-April 2022.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The results for Australia are a bit depressing tbh. After a start similar to NZ in 2020-21, the impact in late-2021-22 was more than twice as severe as in NZ. NZ skipped 2 big waves by keeping their quarantine going until Feb-April 2022.
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The very low recent deaths could be a reporting lag – NZ has only shared data for a few more weeks of July, and it’s common for there to be lags in these series of a month or more. OTOH they have had very low COVID-19 waves in recent years, wrt the wastewater concentrations reported at poops.nz.
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ESR Wastewater Surveillance
poops.nz
November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The very low recent deaths could be a reporting lag – NZ has only shared data for a few more weeks of July, and it’s common for there to be lags in these series of a month or more. OTOH they have had very low COVID-19 waves in recent years, wrt the wastewater concentrations reported at poops.nz.
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Removing the quarantine in 2022 did inevitably swing the pendulum back, but the trends seem to have returned to the pre-pandemic baseline in recent years.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Removing the quarantine in 2022 did inevitably swing the pendulum back, but the trends seem to have returned to the pre-pandemic baseline in recent years.
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My Analysis page provides the context to understand each country’s results. NZ’s quarantine measures famously resulted in negative Excess Deaths (fewer deaths than expected) in 2020-21.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
My Analysis page provides the context to understand each country’s results. NZ’s quarantine measures famously resulted in negative Excess Deaths (fewer deaths than expected) in 2020-21.
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So I’ve started smoothing the weekly deaths series with a 4-week rolling average. The results seem more realistic.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
So I’ve started smoothing the weekly deaths series with a 4-week rolling average. The results seem more realistic.
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Most Excess Deaths methods I’ve seen use the raw weekly deaths for their projection from the baseline. But it is quite common to see big negative and positive 1-week swings, typically around holiday periods (presumably delayed reporting/notifications).
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Most Excess Deaths methods I’ve seen use the raw weekly deaths for their projection from the baseline. But it is quite common to see big negative and positive 1-week swings, typically around holiday periods (presumably delayed reporting/notifications).
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If that's the Sato lab paper I'm thinking of, I recall they described protection from BA.3.2 as "modest".
Please tag me when have a chance to post your thoughts about that paper.
Please tag me when have a chance to post your thoughts about that paper.
November 30, 2025 at 12:09 AM
If that's the Sato lab paper I'm thinking of, I recall they described protection from BA.3.2 as "modest".
Please tag me when have a chance to post your thoughts about that paper.
Please tag me when have a chance to post your thoughts about that paper.
Incredible to me that it has taken over a year. Perhaps there have been other minor lineages that have clung on for a year at such trivial frequencies (100 among 210,000+), but I can't recall any.
November 29, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Incredible to me that it has taken over a year. Perhaps there have been other minor lineages that have clung on for a year at such trivial frequencies (100 among 210,000+), but I can't recall any.
First samples from Queensland, Australia.
Here are my updated maps for BA.3.2.*
bsky.app/profile/mike...
Here are my updated maps for BA.3.2.*
bsky.app/profile/mike...
Here's a map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variants, globally and zoomed to Europe.
The other main hotspots have been South Africa, Western Australia (since July) and Germany (from mid-October).
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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The other main hotspots have been South Africa, Western Australia (since July) and Germany (from mid-October).
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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November 29, 2025 at 10:13 PM
First samples from Queensland, Australia.
Here are my updated maps for BA.3.2.*
bsky.app/profile/mike...
Here are my updated maps for BA.3.2.*
bsky.app/profile/mike...
Well it's WA Health's, not mine. When I rule the world all the wastewater analysis will be standardised, ofc.
To answer your question, I don't know.
This popped up in my search, which says 50mL = 50000 micrograms.
/p is per person?
/d is per day?
calculator-converter.com/milliliters-...
To answer your question, I don't know.
This popped up in my search, which says 50mL = 50000 micrograms.
/p is per person?
/d is per day?
calculator-converter.com/milliliters-...
Milliliters to Micrograms [water] Conversion
Milliliters to Micrograms [water] Conversion Calculator, Conversion Table and How to Convert.
calculator-converter.com
November 29, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Well it's WA Health's, not mine. When I rule the world all the wastewater analysis will be standardised, ofc.
To answer your question, I don't know.
This popped up in my search, which says 50mL = 50000 micrograms.
/p is per person?
/d is per day?
calculator-converter.com/milliliters-...
To answer your question, I don't know.
This popped up in my search, which says 50mL = 50000 micrograms.
/p is per person?
/d is per day?
calculator-converter.com/milliliters-...
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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Here's a map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variant, focussed on Europe.
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Here's a map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variant, focussed on Europe.
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Here are the leading European countries reporting BA.3.2.* .
The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Here are the leading European countries reporting BA.3.2.* .
The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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Note I have held my reporting window to the same date as week, to revert to a lag point where recent samples are more representative.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Note I have held my reporting window to the same date as week, to revert to a lag point where recent samples are more representative.
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