Mike Honey
@mikehoney.bsky.social
Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
Pinned
I’ve added an Excess Deaths Comparison page to my analysis on that topic. Here I’m comparing the UK, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand, to June 2025.
My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
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My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
🧵
November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
I’ve added an Excess Deaths Comparison page to my analysis on that topic. Here I’m comparing the UK, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand, to June 2025.
My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
🧵
My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
🧵
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
November 29, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. This is a fresh “all time” low (since this analysis started in late 2022).
That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. This is a fresh “all time” low (since this analysis started in late 2022).
That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
November 29, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. This is a fresh “all time” low (since this analysis started in late 2022).
That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. This is a fresh “all time” low (since this analysis started in late 2022).
That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
Australian COVID-19 cases update:
Reported Cases in the Northen Territory have showed a sharp recent rise, approaching their peak from the June-July wave. The Reff (case momentum) hit 2.0 before finishing at 1.59.
#COVID19 #Australia #NT
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Reported Cases in the Northen Territory have showed a sharp recent rise, approaching their peak from the June-July wave. The Reff (case momentum) hit 2.0 before finishing at 1.59.
#COVID19 #Australia #NT
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November 27, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Australian COVID-19 cases update:
Reported Cases in the Northen Territory have showed a sharp recent rise, approaching their peak from the June-July wave. The Reff (case momentum) hit 2.0 before finishing at 1.59.
#COVID19 #Australia #NT
🧵
Reported Cases in the Northen Territory have showed a sharp recent rise, approaching their peak from the June-July wave. The Reff (case momentum) hit 2.0 before finishing at 1.59.
#COVID19 #Australia #NT
🧵
My work on SARS-CoV-2 variants informed a recent piece in The Lancet: "Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2".
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2
The constant emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has driven the COVID-19 pandemic
and sustains the current endemic. Saltation variants, such as BA.2.86,1 encode highly
mutated spike (S) proteins th...
www.thelancet.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:30 AM
My work on SARS-CoV-2 variants informed a recent piece in The Lancet: "Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2".
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate has been inching up again, current around 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-758.
That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
The risk estimate has been inching up again, current around 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-758.
That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
November 24, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate has been inching up again, current around 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-758.
That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
The risk estimate has been inching up again, current around 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-758.
That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵
Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early November.
BA.3.* (mostly BA.3.2.2) has started showing significant signs of growth. Recent samples have mostly been reported from Germany and the Netherlands.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus
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BA.3.* (mostly BA.3.2.2) has started showing significant signs of growth. Recent samples have mostly been reported from Germany and the Netherlands.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #BA_3_2 #XFG #Stratus
🧵
November 24, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 19% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 19% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
November 23, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 19% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 19% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
🧵
Reposted by Mike Honey
The dashboard version of the Perth wastewater concentration chart reveals an interesting momentum shift. From the point where BA.3.2.* was first detected in late July, the level of cases rose sharply.
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November 22, 2025 at 9:16 AM
The dashboard version of the Perth wastewater concentration chart reveals an interesting momentum shift. From the point where BA.3.2.* was first detected in late July, the level of cases rose sharply.
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Reposted by Mike Honey
In most other places, the downslope of each XFG.* wave has looked smooth and steep.
But in Germany, it seems the downslope has hit a ramp and is possibly trending back up now.
Early signal of BA.3.2.*? More severe?
But in Germany, it seems the downslope has hit a ramp and is possibly trending back up now.
Early signal of BA.3.2.*? More severe?
November 21, 2025 at 1:32 PM
In most other places, the downslope of each XFG.* wave has looked smooth and steep.
But in Germany, it seems the downslope has hit a ramp and is possibly trending back up now.
Early signal of BA.3.2.*? More severe?
But in Germany, it seems the downslope has hit a ramp and is possibly trending back up now.
Early signal of BA.3.2.*? More severe?
Reposted by Mike Honey
Here's the latest variant picture for BA.3.2.2 in Australia, and the NSW overall view.
Note the sample sizes have been very low and patchy recently.
Note the sample sizes have been very low and patchy recently.
November 19, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Here's the latest variant picture for BA.3.2.2 in Australia, and the NSW overall view.
Note the sample sizes have been very low and patchy recently.
Note the sample sizes have been very low and patchy recently.
