Mike Honey
@mikehoney.bsky.social
Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
The UK had two huge waves in 2020-21, peaking at +94% and +68% in the worst weeks, and +12% and +10% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The UK had two huge waves in 2020-21, peaking at +94% and +68% in the worst weeks, and +12% and +10% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Excess Deaths were down to +4% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +6% on an annual basis, after the XEC wave in Jan 2025 peaked at 37% in the worst week.
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Sweden had two big waves in 2020-21, peaking at +42% and +29% in the worst weeks, and +8% and +3% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Sweden had two big waves in 2020-21, peaking at +42% and +29% in the worst weeks, and +8% and +3% for the years.
Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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Excess Deaths were down to +2% at the end of 2024, but are back up to +4.5% on an annual basis.
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The results for Australia are a bit depressing tbh. After a start similar to NZ in 2020-21, the impact in late-2021-22 was more than twice as severe as in NZ. NZ skipped 2 big waves by keeping their quarantine going until Feb-April 2022.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
The results for Australia are a bit depressing tbh. After a start similar to NZ in 2020-21, the impact in late-2021-22 was more than twice as severe as in NZ. NZ skipped 2 big waves by keeping their quarantine going until Feb-April 2022.
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My Analysis page provides the context to understand each country’s results. NZ’s quarantine measures famously resulted in negative Excess Deaths (fewer deaths than expected) in 2020-21.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
My Analysis page provides the context to understand each country’s results. NZ’s quarantine measures famously resulted in negative Excess Deaths (fewer deaths than expected) in 2020-21.
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I’ve added an Excess Deaths Comparison page to my analysis on that topic. Here I’m comparing the UK, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand, to June 2025.
My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
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My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
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November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
I’ve added an Excess Deaths Comparison page to my analysis on that topic. Here I’m comparing the UK, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand, to June 2025.
My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
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My method projects "Expected Deaths" using a linear regression on the weekly deaths (4-week average) from a baseline of 2015-2019 deaths.
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Incredible to me that it has taken over a year. Perhaps there have been other minor lineages that have clung on for a year at such trivial frequencies (100 among 210,000+), but I can't recall any.
November 29, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Incredible to me that it has taken over a year. Perhaps there have been other minor lineages that have clung on for a year at such trivial frequencies (100 among 210,000+), but I can't recall any.
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
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Here's a map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variant, focussed on Europe.
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Here's a map showing the spread of the BA.3.2.* variant, focussed on Europe.
Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.
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Here are the leading European countries reporting BA.3.2.* .
The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Here are the leading European countries reporting BA.3.2.* .
The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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The frequency in Germany and Ireland ended at 7%.
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Here are the home countries reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus".
Scotland reported continued growth, to 40%.
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Scotland reported continued growth, to 40%.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Here are the home countries reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus".
Scotland reported continued growth, to 40%.
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Scotland reported continued growth, to 40%.
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The sharp recent growth in the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was driven by the PQ.2.1 sub-lineage at 7%. PQ.2.1 is characterised by the Spike I478T mutation (a reversion).
As PQ.2.1 was defined back in May, this surge is probably the result of further evolution.
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As PQ.2.1 was defined back in May, this surge is probably the result of further evolution.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:52 AM
The sharp recent growth in the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was driven by the PQ.2.1 sub-lineage at 7%. PQ.2.1 is characterised by the Spike I478T mutation (a reversion).
As PQ.2.1 was defined back in May, this surge is probably the result of further evolution.
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As PQ.2.1 was defined back in May, this surge is probably the result of further evolution.
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Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.1.1.
Oregon has reported the highest frequency at 19%, while California reached 11% and Minnesota hit 10%.
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Oregon has reported the highest frequency at 19%, while California reached 11% and Minnesota hit 10%.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.1.1.
Oregon has reported the highest frequency at 19%, while California reached 11% and Minnesota hit 10%.
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Oregon has reported the highest frequency at 19%, while California reached 11% and Minnesota hit 10%.
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For the US, XFG.1.1 is showing a slowing advantage of 2.9% per day (20% per week) over other XFG.* "Stratus" lineages. At that pace, any crossover might be in the New Year.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:40 AM
For the US, XFG.1.1 is showing a slowing advantage of 2.9% per day (20% per week) over other XFG.* "Stratus" lineages. At that pace, any crossover might be in the New Year.
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Mutations at position 452 have swung from near-zero to near-100% in a multiple-pendulum pattern, across the span of the pandemic. SL452W has been dominant since JN.1 emerged, the longest period of stability.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Mutations at position 452 have swung from near-zero to near-100% in a multiple-pendulum pattern, across the span of the pandemic. SL452W has been dominant since JN.1 emerged, the longest period of stability.
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XFG.1.1 is emerging as a new contender. It is characterised by a reversion to Spike W452R, which captured the attention of the Variant Hunters.
XFG.1.1 finished at 4%.
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XFG.1.1 finished at 4%.
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November 29, 2025 at 3:40 AM
XFG.1.1 is emerging as a new contender. It is characterised by a reversion to Spike W452R, which captured the attention of the Variant Hunters.
XFG.1.1 finished at 4%.
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XFG.1.1 finished at 4%.
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BA.3.2.* has been reported for several weeks now in the wastewater analysis (poops.nz) at around 2% frequency, but is not showing up in the clinical samples yet.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:08 AM
BA.3.2.* has been reported for several weeks now in the wastewater analysis (poops.nz) at around 2% frequency, but is not showing up in the clinical samples yet.
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A small batch of more recent samples have been shared from Victoria (something I said?), but despite being the 2nd-largest state they sunk to report the lowest volume of all the states over the last 8 weeks.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:01 AM
A small batch of more recent samples have been shared from Victoria (something I said?), but despite being the 2nd-largest state they sunk to report the lowest volume of all the states over the last 8 weeks.
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BA.3.2.* continues to be reported from Western Australia, finishing at 29%.
A chain of local samples has also been reported from New South Wales, finishing at 9%.
The first 2 samples have been reported from Queensland.
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A chain of local samples has also been reported from New South Wales, finishing at 9%.
The first 2 samples have been reported from Queensland.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:01 AM
BA.3.2.* continues to be reported from Western Australia, finishing at 29%.
A chain of local samples has also been reported from New South Wales, finishing at 9%.
The first 2 samples have been reported from Queensland.
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A chain of local samples has also been reported from New South Wales, finishing at 9%.
The first 2 samples have been reported from Queensland.
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For Australia, BA.3.2.* is showing a strong growth advantage of 2.7% per day (18% per week) over NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus", which predicts a crossover in early December.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:01 AM
For Australia, BA.3.2.* is showing a strong growth advantage of 2.7% per day (18% per week) over NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus", which predicts a crossover in early December.
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Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
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BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
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November 29, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early November.
BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
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BA.3.* (all BA.3.2.2) rose to 13% and seems the most likely challenger to replace NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus".
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia #BA_3_2
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