Matej Rafael Risko
@matejrisko.bsky.social
Researcher, focus on Nukes | Missiles | Deterrence | Strategy & Planning | War & International Security | Air Power | Wargames | Strictly personal views, Usual Cavetas
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Pinned
Animated Flight Sequence of a Minuteman III ICBM - Produced by Northrop Grumman (2007)
YouTube video by Association of Air Force Missileers (AAFM)
youtu.be
World-wide delivery in 30 minutes or less or your next one is free.
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
💡Have you read our latest FASI paper?
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
November 6, 2025 at 9:15 AM
💡Have you read our latest FASI paper?
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Read as @sophyantrobus.bsky.social examines the development of the University Air Squadrons over the past century & explores how they remain a vital link between universities & the armed forces.
👇
www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/a...
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵
Continued
Continued
October 31, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Convair B-58 Нustlеr🧵
Continued
Continued
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
It’s a reasonable assumption but there’s the thing - he already demonstrated that he doesn’t have a very good idea what departments do, specifically DOE. If we assume that “nuclear weapons” means delivery platforms and not devices we must on the other hand consider this as well
October 30, 2025 at 2:37 PM
It’s a reasonable assumption but there’s the thing - he already demonstrated that he doesn’t have a very good idea what departments do, specifically DOE. If we assume that “nuclear weapons” means delivery platforms and not devices we must on the other hand consider this as well
I am thinking about Clausewitz and his application in nuclear warfare (and deterrence). Is there any work that deals with the theoretical principle of war as an isolated vs. non-isolated act and a single short blow?
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October 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I am thinking about Clausewitz and his application in nuclear warfare (and deterrence). Is there any work that deals with the theoretical principle of war as an isolated vs. non-isolated act and a single short blow?
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You rarely see Harriers flying. The last vestiges of the Cold War. That's actually why I went there. An amazing aircraft and the spirit of British engineering at its best
#NATOdays
#NATOdays
September 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
You rarely see Harriers flying. The last vestiges of the Cold War. That's actually why I went there. An amazing aircraft and the spirit of British engineering at its best
#NATOdays
#NATOdays
There was a discussion on Twitter about how would NATO counter mass,droned (100s-1000s OWA UAVs) all-azimuth raids,so I’m copy pasting what I wrote there. In short,the answer is dispersion,hardening,and taking decisive action but the devil is in the details
A short thread (well not that short)
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A short thread (well not that short)
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September 13, 2025 at 10:26 AM
There was a discussion on Twitter about how would NATO counter mass,droned (100s-1000s OWA UAVs) all-azimuth raids,so I’m copy pasting what I wrote there. In short,the answer is dispersion,hardening,and taking decisive action but the devil is in the details
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14
A short thread (well not that short)
1/14
IIRC it’s a third such incident that has been publicised, I know of at least one other incident that has not been publicised. Considering the range of Gerbera (600km) and the fact that drones that fell on Lithuanian territory were found without explosives activated kinetically after…
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🇱🇹 In Lithuania, a Russian Gerbera drone that entered from Belarus earlier this week has been found at the territory of the Gaižiūnai military training ground.
August 1, 2025 at 10:12 PM
IIRC it’s a third such incident that has been publicised, I know of at least one other incident that has not been publicised. Considering the range of Gerbera (600km) and the fact that drones that fell on Lithuanian territory were found without explosives activated kinetically after…
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1/3
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Improved KILO class, a Russian design. Safe move for China, not revealing their more advanced Type-039B/C Yuan (or coming Type-041 Zhou)
Suggests both countries still guarded on sub tech
Suggests both countries still guarded on sub tech
Chinese Submarine Makes First Visit to Russia for Joint Drills — USNI News
news.usni.org/2025/08/01/c...
news.usni.org/2025/08/01/c...
Chinese Submarine Makes First Visit to Russia for Joint Drills - USNI News
For the first time, a Chinese submarine deployed to the waters off Russia for a five-day joint exercise between the two countries. A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine identified as Great ...
news.usni.org
August 1, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Improved KILO class, a Russian design. Safe move for China, not revealing their more advanced Type-039B/C Yuan (or coming Type-041 Zhou)
Suggests both countries still guarded on sub tech
Suggests both countries still guarded on sub tech
Absolutely no change of US posture has happened. (Based on only unclass reports) there are always two or more subs at sea and a change of a launch zones to maximise Trident’s PTPs and strike effectiveness on selected targets is a known form of signalling that was used in the past.
Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.
August 1, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Absolutely no change of US posture has happened. (Based on only unclass reports) there are always two or more subs at sea and a change of a launch zones to maximise Trident’s PTPs and strike effectiveness on selected targets is a known form of signalling that was used in the past.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
(1/2) Nuclear deterrence: 30 years after the Chequers Declaration, a major strategic announcement will take place today as London and Paris will state they are opening the possibility to "coordinate" their nuclear deterrents and that they now protect Europe against "extreme threats".
July 10, 2025 at 6:17 AM
(1/2) Nuclear deterrence: 30 years after the Chequers Declaration, a major strategic announcement will take place today as London and Paris will state they are opening the possibility to "coordinate" their nuclear deterrents and that they now protect Europe against "extreme threats".
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Russia’s “Kherson Human Safari” has gone on for well over a year with limited outrage from the international community or media coverage.
Every day they use drones to specifically target civilians for “target practice” & often post videos of them doing it proudly.
Today they targeted a 1 year old.
Every day they use drones to specifically target civilians for “target practice” & often post videos of them doing it proudly.
Today they targeted a 1 year old.
July 9, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Russia’s “Kherson Human Safari” has gone on for well over a year with limited outrage from the international community or media coverage.
Every day they use drones to specifically target civilians for “target practice” & often post videos of them doing it proudly.
Today they targeted a 1 year old.
Every day they use drones to specifically target civilians for “target practice” & often post videos of them doing it proudly.
Today they targeted a 1 year old.
Groupe de Supervision Nucléaire seems to be a way to bridge the cooperation between FR and the UK on bilateral level and secondly between GSN and NPG.It’s a creation of redundant structure,but bilateral coordination mechanism was necessary (and it’s a good thing also for cooperation within the NATO)
July 10, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Groupe de Supervision Nucléaire seems to be a way to bridge the cooperation between FR and the UK on bilateral level and secondly between GSN and NPG.It’s a creation of redundant structure,but bilateral coordination mechanism was necessary (and it’s a good thing also for cooperation within the NATO)
This should be viewed in the context of the June NPG meeting, which was described as "historic" and was preceded by the approval of new CTs/BBs -most notably strengthening the NATINADS capabilities. SSBNs patrols coordination and CSNO (bear gap patrolling) will certainly be addressed as well.
“a newly signed declaration will state for the first time that the respective deterrents of [UK & France] are independent but can be co-ordinated, and that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations.” www.gov.uk/government/n...
New Storm Shadow and missile cooperation to boost jobs as UK and France reboot defence relationship
A new ‘Entente Industrielle’ will support thousands of UK jobs across projects including air-to air missiles
www.gov.uk
July 10, 2025 at 9:22 AM
This should be viewed in the context of the June NPG meeting, which was described as "historic" and was preceded by the approval of new CTs/BBs -most notably strengthening the NATINADS capabilities. SSBNs patrols coordination and CSNO (bear gap patrolling) will certainly be addressed as well.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
“a newly signed declaration will state for the first time that the respective deterrents of [UK & France] are independent but can be co-ordinated, and that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations.” www.gov.uk/government/n...
New Storm Shadow and missile cooperation to boost jobs as UK and France reboot defence relationship
A new ‘Entente Industrielle’ will support thousands of UK jobs across projects including air-to air missiles
www.gov.uk
July 10, 2025 at 6:37 AM
“a newly signed declaration will state for the first time that the respective deterrents of [UK & France] are independent but can be co-ordinated, and that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations.” www.gov.uk/government/n...
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Powerful argumentation.
You’ve “made” a C-V targeting method based not on studying what the enemy values, but on what you think might work, thus trapping u into what you want to avoid, while the enemy has no reason to trust you, since flexible retargeting against unplanned targets is a thing
Cool
You’ve “made” a C-V targeting method based not on studying what the enemy values, but on what you think might work, thus trapping u into what you want to avoid, while the enemy has no reason to trust you, since flexible retargeting against unplanned targets is a thing
Cool
July 9, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Powerful argumentation.
You’ve “made” a C-V targeting method based not on studying what the enemy values, but on what you think might work, thus trapping u into what you want to avoid, while the enemy has no reason to trust you, since flexible retargeting against unplanned targets is a thing
Cool
You’ve “made” a C-V targeting method based not on studying what the enemy values, but on what you think might work, thus trapping u into what you want to avoid, while the enemy has no reason to trust you, since flexible retargeting against unplanned targets is a thing
Cool
👇🏻 Funny is that I, do not recall anyone *seriously* discussing how extremely escalatory Avangard can be, a BGV with a 2,2-2,5 Mt warhead that can cruise below the NORAD radars horizons for a significant part of its trajectory with and ability to vary approach azimuth.
It’s always only the US/NATO
It’s always only the US/NATO
Absolutely. There is a highly contradictory throughline - US weapons & efforts are escalatory/aggressive, Ru/PRC weapons and deployments are rational responses; the US can't deter Russia but Russia can always deter the US.
July 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
👇🏻 Funny is that I, do not recall anyone *seriously* discussing how extremely escalatory Avangard can be, a BGV with a 2,2-2,5 Mt warhead that can cruise below the NORAD radars horizons for a significant part of its trajectory with and ability to vary approach azimuth.
It’s always only the US/NATO
It’s always only the US/NATO
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Not only that. Aside from the fact that it uses criteria that are highly questionable (ineffectiveness of C-F, it's mainly about the ability to use the force after the start of the conflict, but whatever), but also this exactly paradoxically creates the escalation risks he wants to avoid.
July 9, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Not only that. Aside from the fact that it uses criteria that are highly questionable (ineffectiveness of C-F, it's mainly about the ability to use the force after the start of the conflict, but whatever), but also this exactly paradoxically creates the escalation risks he wants to avoid.
This is objectively one of the worst recommendations one can imagine and undermines the very logic of deterrence as res existens. While I as a proponent of C-F strategies disagree, I can understand if one argues in favor of C-V targeting of what the enemy values….
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🧵Introducing optimal deterrence.
Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @cfr.org.
Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n)
www.cfr.org/report/optim...
Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @cfr.org.
Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n)
www.cfr.org/report/optim...
Optimal Deterrence
The United States faces growing dangers of nuclear escalation, a new arms race, and proliferation. This report recommends an improved strategy for “optimal deterrence” and a path to rebuilding relati…
www.cfr.org
July 9, 2025 at 5:09 PM
This is objectively one of the worst recommendations one can imagine and undermines the very logic of deterrence as res existens. While I as a proponent of C-F strategies disagree, I can understand if one argues in favor of C-V targeting of what the enemy values….
1/5
1/5
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Good grief, has Acton taken leave of his senses entirely? This is a recipe for us to (a) largely not be able to deter Russia or China, because *they do not view these targets as too existential or precious to risk*, and (b) be largely helpless in the face of a Red disarming strike.
Optimal Deterrence
The United States faces growing dangers of nuclear escalation, a new arms race, and proliferation. This report recommends an improved strategy for “optimal deterrence” and a path to rebuilding relati…
www.cfr.org
July 9, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Good grief, has Acton taken leave of his senses entirely? This is a recipe for us to (a) largely not be able to deter Russia or China, because *they do not view these targets as too existential or precious to risk*, and (b) be largely helpless in the face of a Red disarming strike.
Money is less of an issue. In fact, the expansion of production is limited by other factors such as a lack of qualified workforce firsts and foremost. These people will have to be cleared, you thus need to adequately pay them, working with software, explosives etc require special skills etc, etc.
Here’s a thought: European countries could pool resources to fund the production of 10 SAMP/T batteries and 1,000 Aster interceptors for Ukraine. The war isn’t ending anytime soon—so what’s holding us back?
June 30, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Money is less of an issue. In fact, the expansion of production is limited by other factors such as a lack of qualified workforce firsts and foremost. These people will have to be cleared, you thus need to adequately pay them, working with software, explosives etc require special skills etc, etc.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
#OTD in 2008, the decommissioned USS Horne (CG-30) sank after being hit by three AGM-84 Harpoon missiles while being used as a target ship during RIMPAC. The Horne was the last of the Belknap-class cruisers due to all the others already having been scrapped or sunk.
June 29, 2025 at 8:54 PM
#OTD in 2008, the decommissioned USS Horne (CG-30) sank after being hit by three AGM-84 Harpoon missiles while being used as a target ship during RIMPAC. The Horne was the last of the Belknap-class cruisers due to all the others already having been scrapped or sunk.