Saturday – frequency stability tests (see right side of the frequency graph).

As if tests weren't enough, around 1400 local time (highlighted) a large gas generator disconnected (red line).

It was replaced by hydro & pumped h. (lower blue).

Freq. dropped to 49,6. Still – no disruptions.

"Learning to live with" does not sound like a solution.

The question that follows "might not be possible to get this level of certainty" is "what level of certainty we can meaningfully get to and what to do once we're there".

2️⃣ There is one overhead HVAC (high voltage alternating current) line connecting the Baltic states to Poland and thus to European continental grid. That is:

▪️ (d.) 500 MW LitPol Link (LT-PL, operated Litgrid & Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, PSE), built in 2015.

7/

For one, Scandinavian countries belong to the Nordic Synchronous Area. That is Finland, Sweden, Norway and eastern Denmark.

Baltic countries are gearing up to become part of the European conitental grid, not the Nordic synchronous area.

5/

▪️(a) 350 MW Estlink 1, (FI–EE, operated by Fingrid & Elering), built in 2007.
▪️ (b) 650 MW Estlink 2, (same), built in 2014.
▪️ (c) 700 MW NordBalt, (LT-SE, operated by Litgrid & Svenska kraftnät), bult in 2015.

These are not essential to synchronisation in the strictest of terms.

4/

#Russia #Energy #Baltics #synchronisation #EuropeanGrid #BRELL

There have been some cable cutting in the Baltic Sea.

These happened in context: on Feb. 7-9 Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) are about to leave Russian power system and connect to Continental European grid.

1/9

#EnergySky #Baltic #infrastructure #NATO

*Deep NATO Concern Over Deep-Sea Baltic Infrastructure*: A Thread

👉 What happened:

A meeting of representatives from NATO allies around the Baltic Sea was held in Finland on 15th Jan, 2025, to discuss the protection of underwater infrastructure.

1/

3️⃣Renewables and reserves

Balancing capacity of the cables is useful for renewable generation. Damaging HVDC cables often – could happen if this goes unanswered – probably will not change the investment calculus for renewables, but would add to already inherent price volatility.

7/

HVDC (high voltage direct current) cables are convenient for balancing the grid on either side of the interconnector.

#Sabotage will force Baltics to rely more on local power reserves (gas powered in LT and oil shale powered in EE).

5/

1️⃣ Power prices

Estlink 2 was 1 of 3 interconnectors that allowed cheap Scandinavian electricity to be exported to the #Baltics.

It means that most likely power prices will be somewhat higher in the Baltics and lower in #Finland that it would be otherwise while the #interconnector is out.

2/

#Estlink 2 is down. What of it? What impact will it have on the power systems and related processes on both sides of the interconnector?

Let us see.

1/

But the new production (wind is most consequential here, incl. #offshore #wind) is being developed on the western part (green circles).

And consumption hasn't moved.

Hence production now needs to be better connection to the consumers. Hence – new #power #lines.

9/fin

For background: most of the power consumption happens in south eastern – central part of Lithuania, where two largest cities are situated [yellow square].

Up until 2009 main production facility was RBMK (Chernobyl type) Ignalina NPP [yellow-black circle].

5/

Lithuania (and Baltics in general) is going through two kinds of power grid development at the same time.

1️⃣: North-South, right about finished process of improving interconnectivity and system resilience as to disconnect from Russian IPS/UPS power system.

3/

The project in question is a 330 kV Darbėnai-Varduva-Mūša and Panevėžys-Mūša lines (red line), as well as the 330 kV Varduva transformer substation. This means 240 km of lines at a cost of ~ €270 million by 2034.

This will provide an additional link between East and West of the country.

2/

There is potential for 1.4 GW more but so far the problem in the #Baltics in the lack of demand.

More international interconnectivity would be nice. One is on the way (LT-PL connection Harmony Link), other plans (like a wish for an HVDC cable to Germany) are floated.

6/fin

So the second #Lithuanian #offshore #wind #tender is on (Nov 18 – Mar 18).

What’s on offer? Rights to build and operate an 700 MW offshore wind park in a scouted area with a 15y indexed CfD in a range of €75-126/MWh.

1/6

Could ir perhaps be a negotiation tactic?