Because Essential leaves undecided in, in theory its primary votes for most parties should be lower than other polls, but in practice it just massively underestimates IND/other. It also persistently has implausibly weak respondent preference flows to ALP.

The age break is especially interesting as Hastie has talked about reinventing the Liberals to energise the under 40s but so far the younger voters are, the less they want him.

My seat estimate for this poll Lib 13 (-1) ALP 10 Green 6 (+1) SFF 1 IND 5. Green gain from Lib in Braddon. In Bass the Greens go deeper into cutup but I'm not convinced they win. #politas

I have this as the highest the Greens have been in EMRS since Dec 2017. Outlier alert but also watch future polls.

Highest ever Newspoll 2PP is 63 in early Rudd days

Age break is interesting there. Voters over 65 far more likely to prefer Hastie or Taylor.

Newspoll has been strong for Labor lately cf others. My aggregate following #Newspoll 56.3 to ALP (+0.6) but will go to 56.4 at midnight if no more polls.

Only didn't go up by more because so many polls out lately so this one only carries 24% of the total weight.

Most netsats of exactly zero
Albanese, Howard 4
Hawke 3
Gillard, Rudd, Abbott, Morrison 1
Turnbull, Keating 0

Keating is high in the list because his netsats were uniformly negative and often very negative, Rudd because his were predominantly very high plus a small number of sizeable negatives with not much in between.

(non paywalled version of article here johnmenadue.com/post/2025/11... )

Too soon to say.

Partly because the Vic Libs are a mess and partly because of federal brand damage.