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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 8h

Voting intention and leadership Qs are generally asked before issue Qs. I assume that was the case here

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11h

My last-election preferences aggregate post Resolve 55.8 to ALP (-0.1)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11h

It's a very poor polling question.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11h

#ResolvePM This question if correctly quoted is unsatisfactory; its results should be ignored. Presents one side of the debate only, and also refers to L-NP reducing immigration when it is not the government and there is no way yet of knowing when or if it again will be.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11h

#ResolvePM ALP 34 L-NP 28 Green 11 ON 12 IND 9 other 7

Their 2PP 55.0 to ALP (respondent prefs)
My 2025 prefs estimate 55.5 to ALP

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 22h

The worst part of that op ed - against stiff and plentiful competition - is him calling immigration a "disgraceful vote-stacking operation" (which he immediately contradicts by referencing economic benefits) What's disgraceful FYI Steve Price is making accusations like that with no evidence.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 22h

that being another reason why he got dumped

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

"Morrison's narrowest of narrow wins in 2019" - no it wasn't, Morrison won comfortably! I even wrote an article about it! kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/09/aust...

Australia's Closest Federal Elections (2019 Wasn't One Of Them)

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Teals don't win or much affect results in "middle suburbs". Preference deals concern HTV cards only which have little overall impact on preference flows. What is happening in the middle suburbs is that Labor is beating the Coalition on primary votes by 5%.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

"The Coalition has basically been wiped out in the middle suburbs [..] beaten by a combination of teals and preference deals installing a raft of Labor candidates". This is denialism about what has actually occurred.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Abbott was so bad as PM that his own socially conservative side of the party were plotting to dump him after less than 18 months - including Hastie's predecessor in Canning the late Don Randall. He's got considerably weirder since.

Josh Taylor @joshtaylor.bsky.social · 2d

Lol lmao

Herald Sun
Steve Price
Abbott return is what Libs need

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Almost all the oppositions are.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

🍿Report that Mary Aldred has given Hastie a ticking off "This is how we become like the Victorians" (meaning the Victorian Liberals; she is Victorian!)
www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

Angry Liberal rebukes rebel Hastie: ‘This is how we become like the Victorians’

First-term MP Mary Aldred boldly said she and other colleagues would lose their seats at the next election if the party did not unite.

www.theage.com.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

It is quite remarkable that that gap stacks up so well historically given that these days Labor have to deal with Greens competition for their Senate primary vote. It is another indicator of how lopsided the 2025 election was.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

That 5.22% was exactly the same as Labor's median (as opposed to nationwide) primary vote margin per seat in the Reps, further confirming that the national 2.74% primary vote gap in the Reps was dragged down by competition from indies.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Something that has escaped most attention re the lopsidedness of this year's election: Labor beat the Coalition's Senate primary by 5.22%. This was Labor's second highest margin since 1953 (behind 1983's 5.52%) and their 5th highest ever.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/10/yes-...
Yes Federal Parliament Should Be Expanded And No It Isn't A Partisan Fix

Yes Federal Parliament Should Be Expanded And No It Isn't A Partisan Fix

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

Ingleburn is a suburb in Sydney that is in Hughes on the edge of Macarthur. Various sources maintain that some of it is actually in Macarthur but I'm struggling to verify. Anyway it is not in Hume.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 1d

The things one finds. While recalculating enrolment stats for an article I noticed that in the September gazetted enrolments the division of Hume appears under the name of ... Ingleburn.

www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to...

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Er I've been studying the accuracy record of polls of all kinds for well over a decade, it's what I do. I know how accurate they are or are not.

Unlike mwmedia - see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/05/almo...

Almost Everything In West Media's Polling Video Is Wrong

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Note that this is actually Redbridge-Accent, not standalone Redbridge. The same combo as the very successful marginal seat tracking poll this year.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

14 is high compared to other pollsters, but One Nation has been rising lately in every poll series.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

Noting that I am not yet applying a house effect to Redbridge, my 2PP aggregate following Redbridge is 55.9 to ALP (-0.6)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

This 14% is to my knowledge the highest One Nation has been in any reputable national poll since June-July 1998. (During that time they had two 14.5s and a 14 in Morgan and a 14 in Nielsen.)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 2d

All three Redbridges so far this term have been low for Labor cf my aggregate of other polls, with their very high ON readings contributing. However the difference is only weakly statistically significant in isolation so I'll wait for more evidence here.

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