Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Some inaccurate stats re the 1990 election attributed to Robert Hogg in Canberra Times article re Richardson. Labor's primary was 39.4 not 37-38, the combined Greens/Dems primary was about 13 not 23 (typo?) and the Green/Dems preference flow to ALP was about 64 not 80.
November 22, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Some inaccurate stats re the 1990 election attributed to Robert Hogg in Canberra Times article re Richardson. Labor's primary was 39.4 not 37-38, the combined Greens/Dems primary was about 13 not 23 (typo?) and the Green/Dems preference flow to ALP was about 64 not 80.
My last-election prefs 2PP aggregate following Redbridge/Accent is 55.9 to ALP (+0.3) rising to 56.0 overnight if no other polls appear. Overall pattern continues to be one of very little 2PP movement.
November 16, 2025 at 11:27 AM
My last-election prefs 2PP aggregate following Redbridge/Accent is 55.9 to ALP (+0.3) rising to 56.0 overnight if no other polls appear. Overall pattern continues to be one of very little 2PP movement.
Be interesting to see other polls test these, these net likeability ratings from #ResolvePM for Hanson and Joyce are much better than usual for them. No raw figures alas.
November 10, 2025 at 6:31 AM
Be interesting to see other polls test these, these net likeability ratings from #ResolvePM for Hanson and Joyce are much better than usual for them. No raw figures alas.
My last-election prefs aggregate post Resolve 55.8 to ALP (-0.6), which is where it was before the last Newspoll. Very little movement in last election prefs 2PP land since the election.
November 9, 2025 at 10:00 AM
My last-election prefs aggregate post Resolve 55.8 to ALP (-0.6), which is where it was before the last Newspoll. Very little movement in last election prefs 2PP land since the election.
Would be fascinating to compare results like this to actual spending to see if the people who say they are going to spend less actually do.
November 9, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Would be fascinating to compare results like this to actual spending to see if the people who say they are going to spend less actually do.
Hanson misleading Americans about our election results at CPAC - the primary vote figure isn't quite right (actually 34.56%) but more importantly a primary vote isn't a "margin" and it isn't the second lowest winning primary vote ever anyway.
November 7, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Hanson misleading Americans about our election results at CPAC - the primary vote figure isn't quite right (actually 34.56%) but more importantly a primary vote isn't a "margin" and it isn't the second lowest winning primary vote ever anyway.
I'm appearing (remotely) at JSCEM this morning, here's the batting order.
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 PM
I'm appearing (remotely) at JSCEM this morning, here's the batting order.
"He thought he could walk 800 metres wearing this heritage listed mothbait but the paparazzi disgused as trick or treaters sprung him and Sharri and Sussan found out."
October 31, 2025 at 12:32 PM
"He thought he could walk 800 metres wearing this heritage listed mothbait but the paparazzi disgused as trick or treaters sprung him and Sharri and Sussan found out."
My all-polls last-election-prefs 2PP aggregate following #Essential is 55.8 to ALP (-0.1, previous value should have been 55.9 not 56.0)
October 28, 2025 at 9:41 PM
My all-polls last-election-prefs 2PP aggregate following #Essential is 55.8 to ALP (-0.1, previous value should have been 55.9 not 56.0)
What a time to be alive.
October 28, 2025 at 8:27 AM
What a time to be alive.
Abolish all show days, regatta days and part state public holidays. Ban all midweek public holidays of any form nationwide and replace all the above with a Preferential Voting Day Fri-Sun long weekend.
October 22, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Abolish all show days, regatta days and part state public holidays. Ban all midweek public holidays of any form nationwide and replace all the above with a Preferential Voting Day Fri-Sun long weekend.
What is ridiculous here is 1. these incoherent Bishop comments about preferential voting 2. Sky calling one of the party's most overhyped flops a "Liberal titan"
October 17, 2025 at 9:13 PM
What is ridiculous here is 1. these incoherent Bishop comments about preferential voting 2. Sky calling one of the party's most overhyped flops a "Liberal titan"
My last-election preferences aggregate post Resolve 55.8 to ALP (-0.1)
October 12, 2025 at 9:16 AM
My last-election preferences aggregate post Resolve 55.8 to ALP (-0.1)
#ResolvePM This question if correctly quoted is unsatisfactory; its results should be ignored. Presents one side of the debate only, and also refers to L-NP reducing immigration when it is not the government and there is no way yet of knowing when or if it again will be.
October 12, 2025 at 9:01 AM
#ResolvePM This question if correctly quoted is unsatisfactory; its results should be ignored. Presents one side of the debate only, and also refers to L-NP reducing immigration when it is not the government and there is no way yet of knowing when or if it again will be.
The things one finds. While recalculating enrolment stats for an article I noticed that in the September gazetted enrolments the division of Hume appears under the name of ... Ingleburn.
www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to...
www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to...
October 11, 2025 at 12:19 AM
The things one finds. While recalculating enrolment stats for an article I noticed that in the September gazetted enrolments the division of Hume appears under the name of ... Ingleburn.
www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to...
www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to...
Candidate S Ley has taken the lead in my sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll
October 6, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Candidate S Ley has taken the lead in my sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll
AEC launches action over unauthorised Wentworth fliers - because they were unauthorised, not because of specific content.
October 3, 2025 at 1:12 AM
AEC launches action over unauthorised Wentworth fliers - because they were unauthorised, not because of specific content.
What is happening in the last-election-preferences 2PP race lately: nothing. ALP still dominant at 56.2 with very little movement since polling resumed (the bump up into the 57s in early-mid July was basically one poll)
September 30, 2025 at 10:41 PM
What is happening in the last-election-preferences 2PP race lately: nothing. ALP still dominant at 56.2 with very little movement since polling resumed (the bump up into the 57s in early-mid July was basically one poll)
The table pictured shows the movements (clearer copy attached). There is always some churn in all directions but such a large flow from a major party to a minor is notable.
September 30, 2025 at 1:15 AM
The table pictured shows the movements (clearer copy attached). There is always some churn in all directions but such a large flow from a major party to a minor is notable.
Have not seen anywhere but twitter yet but looks like first federal YouGov of the term at 56-44. 16% of 2022 Coalition voters now say they would vote for One Nation.
September 29, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Have not seen anywhere but twitter yet but looks like first federal YouGov of the term at 56-44. 16% of 2022 Coalition voters now say they would vote for One Nation.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/2025... 2025-2028 2PP Aggregate Methods Page. Reopening for business tonight at 56.2 to ALP.
September 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/2025... 2025-2028 2PP Aggregate Methods Page. Reopening for business tonight at 56.2 to ALP.
Quite dramatic over time. The 2PP shift in the same time scale is just over 2%.
September 20, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Quite dramatic over time. The 2PP shift in the same time scale is just over 2%.