ps. the ONS deserves credit for updating the way that the data are collected - not criticism! 🤓

The key change is well summarised here... 👇

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

But it is still worrying that we do not have a clearer picture of what is actually going on - and the more negative takes may well be right.

2⃣ these data do not tell us why people are leaving - there is a big difference between, say, a young tech entrepreneur fleeing to Dubai, and an elderly couple retiring to Spain...

1⃣ the revisions may simply reflect better measurement (the old survey method was rubbish) rather than a change in the underlying trend - in other words, the number of Britons leaving may always have been higher than previously estimated...

It is still possible that the Budget itself is not as bad as feared, or at least that uncertainty eases sufficiently to allow some hiring and investment to resume. The reaction in the bond markets will also be crucial.

For now, though, private sector activity appears to be on hold. (5/5)

The manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector recovered a little in October, led by the restart at JLR. But overall GDP growth is still likely to have been subdued, mainly due to pre-Budget uncertainty... (4/5)

The 0.1% monthly fall in UK GDP in September was due in part to the disruption at Jaguar Land Rover - if manufacturing of motor vehicles had been flat rather than slumped by 28.6%, GDP would have risen by 0.1%. However, that would still have been a feeble rate... (3/5)

The monthly data are not very reliable, but it is striking that GDP fell (before rounding) in every month of the third quarter 👇 (2/5)

Ps. I think he's a terrible person, but imagine he was someone else!

All fair points, but fixable. Just add a legsl requirement for an annual mileage check. Allow an intra-year check if people sell their car (just like a meter reading if you move house). And I'm not sure 'clocking' is a thing anymore!