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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 1d

Tighter monetary policy has certainly played a part, but I'd still lead on higher labour costs. Indeed, worries about the past through of higher labour costs partly explains tighter monetary policy...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 1d

By popular demand, here's a chart of the IMF's forecasts for GDP growth *per capita* in 2025 and 2026, which is a better measure of changes in living standards than the headline numbers... 🤔

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 1d

Chart of the Day... 🤔

It's very unusual for payrolled employment not to rise - outside of pandemics.

But Labour has managed it.

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 2d

Yet another downbeat UK business survey, this time Deloitte's latest poll of CFOs👇

ps. a net 32% expect capex to fall over the next 12m, with a net 64% expecting less hiring, driven by cost concerns. And it all started to go wrong again in 2024 Q3... 🤔

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 2d

Excellent summary of the case against stamp duty (SDLT), taken from today's IFS report on Rachel Reeves' tax options... 👍🤓

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 5d

"Securonomics" - UPDATE

KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs is not all doom and gloom - some hopes of recovery in 2026. But for now, hiring still on hold ahead of the Budget, with vacancies continuing to fall "markedly" and starting pay "close to stagnation".

www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 6d

FYI, the latest RICS (@RICSnews) survey provides more evidence that sales activity in the UK housing market has stalled again, with no fewer than 3️⃣3️⃣ references to the upcoming Budget in the summary of members' comments... 🤔

https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/Residential-Market-Survey-September-2025.pdf

t.co

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 9d

ps. economic and political uncertainty is a major drag on construction activity and confidence, which helps to explain why the figures for France were even worse...

Italy 49.8
UK 46.2
Germany 46.2
France (just) 42.9

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Relea...

PMI Releases

pmi.spglobal.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 9d

“Rebuilding Britain” - UPDATE

Latest UK Construction PMI was a little less bad in September, but activity still weak and confidence low, with employment falling for the ninth month in a row... 👇

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 11d

"Storm Amy brings negative electricity prices to UK" 🤔

Might sound good, but too much wind power can be as bad as none at all... 👇

ft.com/content/3bbe...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 12d

ICYMI, some more evidence of the cost pressures building in the US - largely as a result of Trump's tariffs... ⏳

source and more: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 12d

More evidence that private sector activity has stalled again ahead of the Budget... 🙄

Final UK PMI Composite Output Index revised down to just 50.1 in September (flash 51.0, August 53.5), a 5-month low.

This is consistent with quarterly GDP growth of barely zero 👇

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 13d

"UK set to exempt newly-listed company shares from stamp duty"

This is good news - Budget set to include a two-three year stamp duty holiday for new listings 👍

(better to scrap stamp duty altogether of course, but this is better than nothing)

www.ft.com/content/3204...

UK set to exempt newly-listed company shares from stamp duty

Officials hope the planned move will incentivise businesses to list in London

www.ft.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 14d

"What economists do"

FYI, here are the slides from a talk I gave yesterday to sixth formers, organised via @futuresforalluk (aka Speakers for Schools)... 🤓

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-econo...

"What economists do"

A schools presentation

julianhjessop.substack.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 14d

Meanwhile, away from the Labour conference... 🙄

"Business confidence falls to new record low"

source: iod.com/news/uk-econ...

IoD press release: Business confidence falls to new record low

Read about IoD press release: Business confidence falls to new record low. Get more of the latest business news articles from the Institute of Directors.

iod.com

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 14d

Handy history of US government shutdowns 👇

Note the last - and the longest - was also under President Trump, so this one may drag on too...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 15d

Ps. you can read my comments in full here... 🤓

(2/2)

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 15d

"How are ‘bankrupt’ France’s borrowing costs still lower than ours?" 🤔

Some answers here... (1/2)

www.cityam.com/how-are-bank...

How are 'bankrupt' France's borrowing costs still lower than ours?

France's fiscal state has been branded 'worse than Greece's', and yet its borrowing costs are still lower than the UK's - why?

www.cityam.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 15d

Hat tip again to the ONS for a clear explanation of the small (but mostly positive) revisions to the 2024 GDP data, confirmed today... 👍🤓

blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/30/u...

Updating and improving our view of the UK economy

An improved methodology and fresh data have resulted in a slight increase in estimated GDP growth since the end of 2023. In his latest blog, James Benford talks us through the updated picture of the

blog.ons.gov.uk

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 18d

I've written more here on speculation that Rachel Reeves will have to increase income tax in the November Budget... 🤔

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/raising-in...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 18d

FYI, I'm quoted here on why a UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme wouldn't provide much of a fiscal boost... 🤔

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/202...

Access Restricted

www.telegraph.co.uk

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 19d

ICYMI, saving US consumers from the menace of cheap kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanity units and *checks notes* upholstered furniture is a matter of National Security... 🙃

#TrumpTariffs

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 19d

ICYMI, I'm quoted here (along with some 'top economists') on calls for Rachel Reeves to raise income tax in the November Budget... 🤔

(obvs I think she should cut spending instead!)

inews.co.uk/inews-lifest...

Ditch manifesto pledge and raise income tax at Budget, top economists tell Reeves

Labour pledged not to raise income tax in November's Budget, but now a group of economists says it is her best option to get the public finances on a sustainable footing

inews.co.uk

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 20d

Quote of the day (from the CBI's DTS)... 🫤

"The employer NICs and National Living Wage increases announced at last year’s Autumn Budget continue to hit the [retail] sector hard, with the broader business tax burden now at a 25-year high."

www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025 | CBI

Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025

www.cbi.org.uk

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 21d

Germany's ifo business survey - out this morning - is a little worrying... 🤔

In short, uncertainty over US tariff policy is still holding back the euro area's largest economy 👇

www.ifo.de/en/facts/202...

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