Julian Jessop
@julianhjessop.bsky.social
Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Schools speaker. Diploma in Law. FRSA. COYG. Views here mine only. More on website at www.julianhjessop.com. Also on substack at https://substack.com/@julianhjessop
Chart of the Day 🤓
Today's flash UK PMI for November signalled a renewed acceleration in job losses in the private sector, largely due to rising labour costs and additional pre-Budget uncertainty...🙄
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Today's flash UK PMI for November signalled a renewed acceleration in job losses in the private sector, largely due to rising labour costs and additional pre-Budget uncertainty...🙄
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
November 21, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Chart of the Day 🤓
Today's flash UK PMI for November signalled a renewed acceleration in job losses in the private sector, largely due to rising labour costs and additional pre-Budget uncertainty...🙄
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Today's flash UK PMI for November signalled a renewed acceleration in job losses in the private sector, largely due to rising labour costs and additional pre-Budget uncertainty...🙄
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
FYI, here's the last of my trilogy of notes previewing next week's Budget. I've tried to find some possible upsides, but will leave it to others to judge whether I've succeeded... 🤞
Hopefully see you all on the other side!
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/will-rache...
Hopefully see you all on the other side!
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/will-rache...
November 20, 2025 at 6:31 PM
FYI, here's the last of my trilogy of notes previewing next week's Budget. I've tried to find some possible upsides, but will leave it to others to judge whether I've succeeded... 🤞
Hopefully see you all on the other side!
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/will-rache...
Hopefully see you all on the other side!
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/will-rache...
FYI, here are some thoughts on how Rachel Reeves could increase the tax burden by another £30 billion next week, split roughly £10 billion from broad-based increases in taxes on income and £20 billion from a dog’s breakfast of smaller measures... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-might-...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-might-...
November 19, 2025 at 5:47 PM
FYI, here are some thoughts on how Rachel Reeves could increase the tax burden by another £30 billion next week, split roughly £10 billion from broad-based increases in taxes on income and £20 billion from a dog’s breakfast of smaller measures... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-might-...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-might-...
FYI, I've fleshed out some thoughts on what is likely to be in next week's Budget, starting with a guesstimate at the size of the financial hole... 🤔
(almost certainly wrong, but hopefully in a relatively sophisticated way! 🤓)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-chance...
(almost certainly wrong, but hopefully in a relatively sophisticated way! 🤓)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-chance...
November 18, 2025 at 5:54 PM
FYI, I've fleshed out some thoughts on what is likely to be in next week's Budget, starting with a guesstimate at the size of the financial hole... 🤔
(almost certainly wrong, but hopefully in a relatively sophisticated way! 🤓)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-chance...
(almost certainly wrong, but hopefully in a relatively sophisticated way! 🤓)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-chance...
Even more evidence that Budget speculation is undermining the economy... 🙄
The S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply this month, led by expectations for household finances 👇
NB. the more closely watched GfK survey is out on Friday... ⚠️
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
The S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply this month, led by expectations for household finances 👇
NB. the more closely watched GfK survey is out on Friday... ⚠️
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
November 18, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Even more evidence that Budget speculation is undermining the economy... 🙄
The S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply this month, led by expectations for household finances 👇
NB. the more closely watched GfK survey is out on Friday... ⚠️
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
The S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply this month, led by expectations for household finances 👇
NB. the more closely watched GfK survey is out on Friday... ⚠️
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
ps. the ONS deserves credit for updating the way that the data are collected - not criticism! 🤓
The key change is well summarised here... 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The key change is well summarised here... 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
November 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM
ps. the ONS deserves credit for updating the way that the data are collected - not criticism! 🤓
The key change is well summarised here... 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The key change is well summarised here... 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
FYI, the bond markets - quite rightly - are not buying Labour's spin on the Budget tax U-turn...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
FYI, the bond markets - quite rightly - are not buying Labour's spin on the Budget tax U-turn...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
ICYMI, here are some thoughts on the latest twists and turns in the Budget saga (only 12 more days of this to go... 🙄)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
November 14, 2025 at 4:28 PM
ICYMI, here are some thoughts on the latest twists and turns in the Budget saga (only 12 more days of this to go... 🙄)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
Really important chart from the ONS... 🤓
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
November 13, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Really important chart from the ONS... 🤓
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
The monthly data are not very reliable, but it is striking that GDP fell (before rounding) in every month of the third quarter 👇 (2/5)
November 13, 2025 at 3:20 PM
The monthly data are not very reliable, but it is striking that GDP fell (before rounding) in every month of the third quarter 👇 (2/5)
📢 Amidst all the talk about increases in tax *rates*, don't forget the other way in which Rachel Reeves is likely to raise a lot more from income tax - extending the freeze on *thresholds*.
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
November 8, 2025 at 9:51 AM
📢 Amidst all the talk about increases in tax *rates*, don't forget the other way in which Rachel Reeves is likely to raise a lot more from income tax - extending the freeze on *thresholds*.
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
Looks like there's just enough public support for a pay-per-mile EV tax to ensure it makes it into the Budget... 👍
November 6, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Looks like there's just enough public support for a pay-per-mile EV tax to ensure it makes it into the Budget... 👍
FYI, I've pulled together some thoughts on pay-per-mile charging for EVs... 🤔
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
November 6, 2025 at 10:23 PM
FYI, I've pulled together some thoughts on pay-per-mile charging for EVs... 🤔
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
One point most miss is that the OBR's forecasts *already* assume that the Government will raise an extra £4.6bn in 2029-30 from ending the freeze on fuel duty and reversing the 'temporary' 5p cut.
So if she doesn't do that, the Budget shortfall would be £4.6bn bigger...
(2/3)
So if she doesn't do that, the Budget shortfall would be £4.6bn bigger...
(2/3)
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 AM
One point most miss is that the OBR's forecasts *already* assume that the Government will raise an extra £4.6bn in 2029-30 from ending the freeze on fuel duty and reversing the 'temporary' 5p cut.
So if she doesn't do that, the Budget shortfall would be £4.6bn bigger...
(2/3)
So if she doesn't do that, the Budget shortfall would be £4.6bn bigger...
(2/3)
Won't be popular, but pay-per-mile charges for EVs would be a fair way to replace the revenues that are being lost from the transition from petrol and diesel.
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Won't be popular, but pay-per-mile charges for EVs would be a fair way to replace the revenues that are being lost from the transition from petrol and diesel.
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
FYI, here's a summary of my thoughts on Rachel Reeves' speech today... 🤔
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
November 4, 2025 at 6:29 PM
FYI, here's a summary of my thoughts on Rachel Reeves' speech today... 🤔
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
FWIW, here's the latest iteration of my 'Budget Scorecard', with three scenarios for the size of the hole to be filled (£17bn, £34bn and £50bn) and a set of tax options for each.
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
November 3, 2025 at 6:39 PM
FWIW, here's the latest iteration of my 'Budget Scorecard', with three scenarios for the size of the hole to be filled (£17bn, £34bn and £50bn) and a set of tax options for each.
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
FYI, I've fleshed out some recent comments on Tesco bashing into a blog... 🤔✍️
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
November 3, 2025 at 10:04 AM
FYI, I've fleshed out some recent comments on Tesco bashing into a blog... 🤔✍️
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
FWIW, here's my first stab at a 'Budget scorecard', with the amounts that Rachel Reeves might have to raise in tax in three scenarios, and some ideas about how she might do it... 🤔
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
October 29, 2025 at 6:27 PM
FWIW, here's my first stab at a 'Budget scorecard', with the amounts that Rachel Reeves might have to raise in tax in three scenarios, and some ideas about how she might do it... 🤔
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
FYI, these reports (i.e. leaks) of a 0.3% productivity downgrade are (presumably) coming from Treasury/No10, not the OBR, so may well be some 'expectations management' here.
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
October 28, 2025 at 8:50 AM
FYI, these reports (i.e. leaks) of a 0.3% productivity downgrade are (presumably) coming from Treasury/No10, not the OBR, so may well be some 'expectations management' here.
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
Chart of the Day 🤓
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
October 25, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Chart of the Day 🤓
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
FYI, I've blogged on Rachel Reeves' plan to make it even more expensive to employ young people.... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
October 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
FYI, I've blogged on Rachel Reeves' plan to make it even more expensive to employ young people.... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
ICYMI, under Labour, it takes £10 million of investment just to create one job... 😉
October 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM
ICYMI, under Labour, it takes £10 million of investment just to create one job... 😉
2⃣ "confidence edges higher"
(but mainly because of fading fears about US tariffs, and still much weaker than before last Autumn's Budget)
(but mainly because of fading fears about US tariffs, and still much weaker than before last Autumn's Budget)
October 24, 2025 at 2:09 PM
2⃣ "confidence edges higher"
(but mainly because of fading fears about US tariffs, and still much weaker than before last Autumn's Budget)
(but mainly because of fading fears about US tariffs, and still much weaker than before last Autumn's Budget)
A bit more on this morning's UK PMI 🤔
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
October 24, 2025 at 2:08 PM
A bit more on this morning's UK PMI 🤔
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"