Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
@joshkettles.bsky.social
🏝️ I just really like Survivor
🔥 Strategy Pod http://FuturePastSurvivor.com
🎙️ Contributor @silentpodcasts.bsky.social
Tag me in #Survivor #Bluey #LOTR memes
🔥 Strategy Pod http://FuturePastSurvivor.com
🎙️ Contributor @silentpodcasts.bsky.social
Tag me in #Survivor #Bluey #LOTR memes
Pinned
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
November 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
SETTLERS OF KETTLAN
November 27, 2025 at 10:33 PM
SETTLERS OF KETTLAN
November 27, 2025 at 7:05 PM
November 27, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Happy Thanksgiving — and Happy One Year Anniversary to my smartest, least wrong take of all time!
November 27, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Happy Thanksgiving — and Happy One Year Anniversary to my smartest, least wrong take of all time!
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 Predictions
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
November 27, 2025 at 11:14 AM
#Survivor49 Predictions
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
November 27, 2025 at 11:24 AM
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
It’s the 6-7 prophecy. He will hold his idol for nor more and no less than 6 to 7 tribal councils.
#survivor
#survivor
#Survivor49 I didn't think Rizo could show more gall after not playing a very public idol for 3 weeks straight.
Then he did this.
Then he did this.
November 27, 2025 at 7:04 AM
It’s the 6-7 prophecy. He will hold his idol for nor more and no less than 6 to 7 tribal councils.
#survivor
#survivor
My impression’s been that the liminal space between votes cast & votes read is pretty open.
In fact, something I’ve actually been very vocal about on our podcast lately is that players could take advantage of this space — playing fake idols or even grandstanding in certain situations.
#survivor
In fact, something I’ve actually been very vocal about on our podcast lately is that players could take advantage of this space — playing fake idols or even grandstanding in certain situations.
#survivor
Fake idol chaser, no Shot. (To borrow @joshkettles.bsky.social parlance.)
Interesting that he had the option to play his real idol afterwards (if necessary), which is what he appeared to be banking on. I would have thought once the idols have been played/verified, no more plays would be allowed.
Interesting that he had the option to play his real idol afterwards (if necessary), which is what he appeared to be banking on. I would have thought once the idols have been played/verified, no more plays would be allowed.
November 27, 2025 at 6:43 AM
My impression’s been that the liminal space between votes cast & votes read is pretty open.
In fact, something I’ve actually been very vocal about on our podcast lately is that players could take advantage of this space — playing fake idols or even grandstanding in certain situations.
#survivor
In fact, something I’ve actually been very vocal about on our podcast lately is that players could take advantage of this space — playing fake idols or even grandstanding in certain situations.
#survivor
Boooo
Viper (Player 152) has been voted by fans to return for season 3 of Squid Game: The Challenge.
“I plan to cause total chaos," he said to Netflix about his plans for season 3.
“I plan to cause total chaos," he said to Netflix about his plans for season 3.
November 25, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Boooo
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
The chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils decrease after winning back-to-back IICs.
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
November 25, 2025 at 10:37 AM
The chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils decrease after winning back-to-back IICs.
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
@chubicki.bsky.social — are you aware of new robot Olaf? And do I sound like a robotics ignoramus if I say that this looks spectacular?
First look at the free-roaming robotic Olaf.
• He is able to meet guests & interact with them.
• Disney used a branch of AI called “reinforcement learning” to help bring Olaf to life.
• Coming to Disneyland Paris & Hong Kong Disneyland in early 2026.
• He is able to meet guests & interact with them.
• Disney used a branch of AI called “reinforcement learning” to help bring Olaf to life.
• Coming to Disneyland Paris & Hong Kong Disneyland in early 2026.
November 25, 2025 at 5:10 AM
@chubicki.bsky.social — are you aware of new robot Olaf? And do I sound like a robotics ignoramus if I say that this looks spectacular?
Had a great time talking public idols, knowledge is power loopholes, the New Era meta, and hair care tips with Andy this week.
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/7zdX...
#survivor #survivor49
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/7zdX...
#survivor #survivor49
November 25, 2025 at 4:34 AM
Had a great time talking public idols, knowledge is power loopholes, the New Era meta, and hair care tips with Andy this week.
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/7zdX...
#survivor #survivor49
🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/7zdX...
#survivor #survivor49
Happy Sunday to anyone getting high off God (or hay) today
November 23, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Happy Sunday to anyone getting high off God (or hay) today
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal)
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
November 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal)
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
No one in the New Era has won after winning two immunities by Final 8.
Will Savannah break the curse?
Here’s how many additional votes players survived after second immunity win (w/o additional immunity):
Ricard ➡️ 1 *
Tori ➡️ 0
Frannie ➡️ 0
Bruce ➡️ 0
Charlie ➡️ 4
Kyle 47 ➡️ 1 *
Joe ➡️ 2 *
#survivor
Will Savannah break the curse?
Here’s how many additional votes players survived after second immunity win (w/o additional immunity):
Ricard ➡️ 1 *
Tori ➡️ 0
Frannie ➡️ 0
Bruce ➡️ 0
Charlie ➡️ 4
Kyle 47 ➡️ 1 *
Joe ➡️ 2 *
#survivor
November 22, 2025 at 2:54 AM
No one in the New Era has won after winning two immunities by Final 8.
Will Savannah break the curse?
Here’s how many additional votes players survived after second immunity win (w/o additional immunity):
Ricard ➡️ 1 *
Tori ➡️ 0
Frannie ➡️ 0
Bruce ➡️ 0
Charlie ➡️ 4
Kyle 47 ➡️ 1 *
Joe ➡️ 2 *
#survivor
Will Savannah break the curse?
Here’s how many additional votes players survived after second immunity win (w/o additional immunity):
Ricard ➡️ 1 *
Tori ➡️ 0
Frannie ➡️ 0
Bruce ➡️ 0
Charlie ➡️ 4
Kyle 47 ➡️ 1 *
Joe ➡️ 2 *
#survivor
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
November 21, 2025 at 4:42 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 5:03 AM
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
Reposted by Josh Kettles 🤙🏼
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
November 21, 2025 at 5:19 AM
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Interstates killed Route 66. BIG SAD. Not talked about enough
November 21, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Interstates killed Route 66. BIG SAD. Not talked about enough
Drunk at Disneyland. AMA.
November 21, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Drunk at Disneyland. AMA.