Joe Kearns
@joekearns.bsky.social
The offense rightfully got most of the attention yesterday, but holy crap was Nick awful on 4th down
November 24, 2025 at 11:05 AM
The offense rightfully got most of the attention yesterday, but holy crap was Nick awful on 4th down
All the best to Daniel. Thank you for this, dude
November 22, 2025 at 10:18 PM
All the best to Daniel. Thank you for this, dude
Seemed like ESPN Analytics had a glitch during the broadcast, but now, we can see what the model would've said about the 4th and 1 attempt from the 29: it leaned Punt, but by such a small margin that it's effectively a toss up.
November 17, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Seemed like ESPN Analytics had a glitch during the broadcast, but now, we can see what the model would've said about the 4th and 1 attempt from the 29: it leaned Punt, but by such a small margin that it's effectively a toss up.
That doesn’t seem to line up with the ESPN Analytics webpage. Don’t even think a 4th and 1 would have a chance as high as the break-even rate they show here, maybe 4th and inches would?
November 11, 2025 at 3:42 PM
That doesn’t seem to line up with the ESPN Analytics webpage. Don’t even think a 4th and 1 would have a chance as high as the break-even rate they show here, maybe 4th and inches would?
There was some serious luck in how he got some of those “strikes”
October 25, 2025 at 2:18 AM
There was some serious luck in how he got some of those “strikes”
A lot of it depends on how the opposing LBs are coached. Lot of good insights from this post. josephferraiola.substack.com/p/game-plann...
October 24, 2025 at 2:02 PM
A lot of it depends on how the opposing LBs are coached. Lot of good insights from this post. josephferraiola.substack.com/p/game-plann...
ESPN Analytics recommended a field goal there, as would anyone with common sense
October 19, 2025 at 7:55 PM
ESPN Analytics recommended a field goal there, as would anyone with common sense
Back half of the horse: defensive coaches
Front half: offensive coaches (includes and especially Nick)
Front half: offensive coaches (includes and especially Nick)
October 19, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Back half of the horse: defensive coaches
Front half: offensive coaches (includes and especially Nick)
Front half: offensive coaches (includes and especially Nick)
The rare “coach goes for it when he shouldn’t” decision and it’s not even close
October 12, 2025 at 4:38 PM
The rare “coach goes for it when he shouldn’t” decision and it’s not even close
I find it weird people are complaining about the average starting field position when this year’s is a return to where it was in the 1990s-2000s. The low starting field position people are used to from the last 15-ish years was the anomaly, not this year’s. www.wsj.com/sports/footb...
September 29, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I find it weird people are complaining about the average starting field position when this year’s is a return to where it was in the 1990s-2000s. The low starting field position people are used to from the last 15-ish years was the anomaly, not this year’s. www.wsj.com/sports/footb...
Jordan Davis being extremely tall turned out to be a good thing
September 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Jordan Davis being extremely tall turned out to be a good thing
Digression: @nfl4th.com actually recommended kick on 3 of the 4 decisions, and the 4th one was a toss up (lean go). I’m curious if anyone knows what might trigger the differences between the two models.
September 21, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Digression: @nfl4th.com actually recommended kick on 3 of the 4 decisions, and the 4th one was a toss up (lean go). I’m curious if anyone knows what might trigger the differences between the two models.
In the divisional round game last season, there were also 4 times McVay choose to either kick or punt when ESPN Analytics recommended he go for it
September 21, 2025 at 10:24 PM
In the divisional round game last season, there were also 4 times McVay choose to either kick or punt when ESPN Analytics recommended he go for it
Today, there were 4 times that Sean McVay chose to either kick a field goal or punt when ESPN Analytics recommended he go for it
September 21, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Today, there were 4 times that Sean McVay chose to either kick a field goal or punt when ESPN Analytics recommended he go for it
September 16, 2025 at 12:32 AM
The expected value of a 51 yard field goal was 2.01 points. The expected value of the 58 yarder they took was 1.59. I know the correct comparison is a 53 yard attempt, but the point is even 7 yards difference is valuable. Someone has to convince me going for it was a negative EV move by that margin.
September 15, 2025 at 5:12 PM
The expected value of a 51 yard field goal was 2.01 points. The expected value of the 58 yarder they took was 1.59. I know the correct comparison is a 53 yard attempt, but the point is even 7 yards difference is valuable. Someone has to convince me going for it was a negative EV move by that margin.
ESPN analytics had the end of half sequence as a pretty clear go. They did not for last year’s Saints game debacle by the way, which I’ve seen some people taking Sirianni’s side try to compare this one to.
September 15, 2025 at 4:28 PM
ESPN analytics had the end of half sequence as a pretty clear go. They did not for last year’s Saints game debacle by the way, which I’ve seen some people taking Sirianni’s side try to compare this one to.
Best way I can answer that is with the AUC of the logistic regression I used. 50% = as good as a coin toss, 100% = perfect prediction. 65% isn't super strong, but for rare events, it's not bad. I'm careful to not take the actual numbers too seriously, but the directionality seems solid.
September 11, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Best way I can answer that is with the AUC of the logistic regression I used. 50% = as good as a coin toss, 100% = perfect prediction. 65% isn't super strong, but for rare events, it's not bad. I'm careful to not take the actual numbers too seriously, but the directionality seems solid.
Another thing I'm paying more attention to this year
September 11, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Another thing I'm paying more attention to this year
The second one had more loft and bounced to Turpin's right around the 11 yard line. This time, Turpin was in an awkward position to field the kick and the knuckleball kick had its intended effect. The Cowboys only returned this one to the 12.
September 6, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The second one had more loft and bounced to Turpin's right around the 11 yard line. This time, Turpin was in an awkward position to field the kick and the knuckleball kick had its intended effect. The Cowboys only returned this one to the 12.
Elliott attempted this twice. One didn't do much and the other worked very well. The first took a low line drive and bounced around the 15 and flew into KaVontae Turpin's chest around the 8. Because it didn't delay the fielding of the kickoff as intended, the Cowboys successfully returned to the 31
September 6, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Elliott attempted this twice. One didn't do much and the other worked very well. The first took a low line drive and bounced around the 15 and flew into KaVontae Turpin's chest around the 8. Because it didn't delay the fielding of the kickoff as intended, the Cowboys successfully returned to the 31
Interestingly, Jake Elliott had the shallowest kick distance out of the 4 kickers. Part of the reason why is he attempted something Shawn Syed has been referring to in his article last year: sumersports.com/the-zone/the...
September 6, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Interestingly, Jake Elliott had the shallowest kick distance out of the 4 kickers. Part of the reason why is he attempted something Shawn Syed has been referring to in his article last year: sumersports.com/the-zone/the...