Jeff
@jefft.bsky.social
Seattle-based. Interested in housing. Really more of a reply guy than a poster, but the good kind of reply guy.
"muh burrito taxis got too expensive!"
November 27, 2025 at 5:34 PM
"muh burrito taxis got too expensive!"
"Twerpy" sums it up for me. I was wondering if that was just how movies were made back then, or maybe it's just in that middlebrow lane that doesn't get made anymore, like John Grisham adaptations?
November 27, 2025 at 6:38 AM
"Twerpy" sums it up for me. I was wondering if that was just how movies were made back then, or maybe it's just in that middlebrow lane that doesn't get made anymore, like John Grisham adaptations?
The Costco pumpkin pies are $5.99.
It's got to be a loss leader. When I've tried to make my own the ingredients alone cost more.
It's got to be a loss leader. When I've tried to make my own the ingredients alone cost more.
November 27, 2025 at 1:47 AM
The Costco pumpkin pies are $5.99.
It's got to be a loss leader. When I've tried to make my own the ingredients alone cost more.
It's got to be a loss leader. When I've tried to make my own the ingredients alone cost more.
Lol yes, just starting with the bills.
And luckily my wife is working as full time mom so our childcare costs are more like a few grand for co-op preschool and another couple grand on family memberships at the zoo, aquarium, other places for indoor activities and learning in winter.
And luckily my wife is working as full time mom so our childcare costs are more like a few grand for co-op preschool and another couple grand on family memberships at the zoo, aquarium, other places for indoor activities and learning in winter.
November 26, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Lol yes, just starting with the bills.
And luckily my wife is working as full time mom so our childcare costs are more like a few grand for co-op preschool and another couple grand on family memberships at the zoo, aquarium, other places for indoor activities and learning in winter.
And luckily my wife is working as full time mom so our childcare costs are more like a few grand for co-op preschool and another couple grand on family memberships at the zoo, aquarium, other places for indoor activities and learning in winter.
Here in Seattle:
Housing: $50,640
Childcare (would be) ~$40,000
Health insurance: $18,961
OOP medical: $6,000
Utilities: $4,000
Car insurance: $1,428
Car tabs: $1,244
Life insurance: $720
Internet: $600
Cell phones: $576
__________________'
Total: $124,169.
Housing: $50,640
Childcare (would be) ~$40,000
Health insurance: $18,961
OOP medical: $6,000
Utilities: $4,000
Car insurance: $1,428
Car tabs: $1,244
Life insurance: $720
Internet: $600
Cell phones: $576
__________________'
Total: $124,169.
November 26, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Here in Seattle:
Housing: $50,640
Childcare (would be) ~$40,000
Health insurance: $18,961
OOP medical: $6,000
Utilities: $4,000
Car insurance: $1,428
Car tabs: $1,244
Life insurance: $720
Internet: $600
Cell phones: $576
__________________'
Total: $124,169.
Housing: $50,640
Childcare (would be) ~$40,000
Health insurance: $18,961
OOP medical: $6,000
Utilities: $4,000
Car insurance: $1,428
Car tabs: $1,244
Life insurance: $720
Internet: $600
Cell phones: $576
__________________'
Total: $124,169.
The SAAR existing home sales numbers keep showing residual seasonality too. Winter has outperformed seasonal expectations for at least 3, maybe 4-5 years in a row.
November 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The SAAR existing home sales numbers keep showing residual seasonality too. Winter has outperformed seasonal expectations for at least 3, maybe 4-5 years in a row.
Like many cliches, "you should travel to Italy" is reliably true.
November 26, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Like many cliches, "you should travel to Italy" is reliably true.
Time for Mamdani to win the coveted Nate Silver seal of approval for living "on the river"
November 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Time for Mamdani to win the coveted Nate Silver seal of approval for living "on the river"
Oh no I thought you were joking about the vacation thing.
Maybe it's because they're investment bankers? If I worked 120 hours a week... Well I don't see how I'd fit a vacation in, but if they made me take 1 week off a couple times a year I don't know how I'd find the time to plan it myself.
Maybe it's because they're investment bankers? If I worked 120 hours a week... Well I don't see how I'd fit a vacation in, but if they made me take 1 week off a couple times a year I don't know how I'd find the time to plan it myself.
November 26, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Oh no I thought you were joking about the vacation thing.
Maybe it's because they're investment bankers? If I worked 120 hours a week... Well I don't see how I'd fit a vacation in, but if they made me take 1 week off a couple times a year I don't know how I'd find the time to plan it myself.
Maybe it's because they're investment bankers? If I worked 120 hours a week... Well I don't see how I'd fit a vacation in, but if they made me take 1 week off a couple times a year I don't know how I'd find the time to plan it myself.
That has inspired me to request one at 39th and Oregon. It's a total cluster with cross traffic trying to get to/from the bowling alley and trader Joe's on that block of 39th, while drivers bomb through on Oregon downhill from the junction toward Fauntleroy, or up a blind hill vice versa.
November 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM
That has inspired me to request one at 39th and Oregon. It's a total cluster with cross traffic trying to get to/from the bowling alley and trader Joe's on that block of 39th, while drivers bomb through on Oregon downhill from the junction toward Fauntleroy, or up a blind hill vice versa.
Oof. We had open enrollment in May. My premiums for a family plan jumped from $14,000 to $19,000. That's my portion to pay after whatever my employer is paying.
The HDHP option still had premiums of $18,000.
The HDHP option still had premiums of $18,000.
November 26, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Oof. We had open enrollment in May. My premiums for a family plan jumped from $14,000 to $19,000. That's my portion to pay after whatever my employer is paying.
The HDHP option still had premiums of $18,000.
The HDHP option still had premiums of $18,000.
Are you worried this will tip things in a NIMBY direction?
November 26, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Are you worried this will tip things in a NIMBY direction?
But also... Buying a house in Cincinnati has also just gotten dramatically less affordable in the last 5 years!
This recently spread from being mostly just a superstar city problem to being a "most median earners in most of the US" problem.
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
This recently spread from being mostly just a superstar city problem to being a "most median earners in most of the US" problem.
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
November 25, 2025 at 11:15 PM
But also... Buying a house in Cincinnati has also just gotten dramatically less affordable in the last 5 years!
This recently spread from being mostly just a superstar city problem to being a "most median earners in most of the US" problem.
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
This recently spread from being mostly just a superstar city problem to being a "most median earners in most of the US" problem.
bsky.app/profile/jeff...
Even well outside the so called superstar cities.
November 25, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Even well outside the so called superstar cities.
Whether prices are moving up or down a couple % points this year doesn't materially change the fact that mortgage affordability lurched from "pretty accessible and in reach" in 80% of the country in 2020 to "out of reach and discouraging" today.
November 25, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Whether prices are moving up or down a couple % points this year doesn't materially change the fact that mortgage affordability lurched from "pretty accessible and in reach" in 80% of the country in 2020 to "out of reach and discouraging" today.
The latter factor due to a combination of different timelines; different expectations on near-term price changes; different carrying costs; seller psychology and loss aversion (?).
Plus should've mentioned location also encompasses regional diff: pricey EHS in NE, vs lower cost NHS in South...
Plus should've mentioned location also encompasses regional diff: pricey EHS in NE, vs lower cost NHS in South...
November 25, 2025 at 6:53 PM
The latter factor due to a combination of different timelines; different expectations on near-term price changes; different carrying costs; seller psychology and loss aversion (?).
Plus should've mentioned location also encompasses regional diff: pricey EHS in NE, vs lower cost NHS in South...
Plus should've mentioned location also encompasses regional diff: pricey EHS in NE, vs lower cost NHS in South...
Yeah I like the FHFA index.
It'd be interesting to decompose the new/EHS divergence into factors like location premium (scarce close-in land already covered with EHs vs exurban sprawl); size / quality (should cut the other way still, right?); builders' greater short run willingness to cut a deal...
It'd be interesting to decompose the new/EHS divergence into factors like location premium (scarce close-in land already covered with EHs vs exurban sprawl); size / quality (should cut the other way still, right?); builders' greater short run willingness to cut a deal...
November 25, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Yeah I like the FHFA index.
It'd be interesting to decompose the new/EHS divergence into factors like location premium (scarce close-in land already covered with EHs vs exurban sprawl); size / quality (should cut the other way still, right?); builders' greater short run willingness to cut a deal...
It'd be interesting to decompose the new/EHS divergence into factors like location premium (scarce close-in land already covered with EHs vs exurban sprawl); size / quality (should cut the other way still, right?); builders' greater short run willingness to cut a deal...
No problem, it's an extremely common and understandable mistake because of their bad naming.
It remains baffling and infuriating to me that NAR refuses to pipe out more than the most recent 12 months of EHS counts and prices to APIs like FRED. It just drives demand to paid data aggregators.
It remains baffling and infuriating to me that NAR refuses to pipe out more than the most recent 12 months of EHS counts and prices to APIs like FRED. It just drives demand to paid data aggregators.
November 25, 2025 at 6:46 PM
No problem, it's an extremely common and understandable mistake because of their bad naming.
It remains baffling and infuriating to me that NAR refuses to pipe out more than the most recent 12 months of EHS counts and prices to APIs like FRED. It just drives demand to paid data aggregators.
It remains baffling and infuriating to me that NAR refuses to pipe out more than the most recent 12 months of EHS counts and prices to APIs like FRED. It just drives demand to paid data aggregators.
Wait really? I hadn't seen that. Maybe they added that in an effort to begin clearing this up, but haven't deleted the old named one yet? In the meantime for the reason you describe, this is actually worse for confusion! Ahhhh
November 25, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Wait really? I hadn't seen that. Maybe they added that in an effort to begin clearing this up, but haven't deleted the old named one yet? In the meantime for the reason you describe, this is actually worse for confusion! Ahhhh
Nicely highlights Las Vegas's nearly monotonic march from top-ranking HPA to bottom-ranking. Sheesh, I guess the gambling and convention slowdowns are killing demand there.
September revPAR: -9% YoY.
YTD conventions: -12% YTD vs 2019.
Oof size: LARGE.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/las-...
September revPAR: -9% YoY.
YTD conventions: -12% YTD vs 2019.
Oof size: LARGE.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/las-...
Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Driven largely by slower midweek volumes, the destination...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 25, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Nicely highlights Las Vegas's nearly monotonic march from top-ranking HPA to bottom-ranking. Sheesh, I guess the gambling and convention slowdowns are killing demand there.
September revPAR: -9% YoY.
YTD conventions: -12% YTD vs 2019.
Oof size: LARGE.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/las-...
September revPAR: -9% YoY.
YTD conventions: -12% YTD vs 2019.
Oof size: LARGE.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/las-...
It remains a major disservice to public discourse on house prices, and major personal pet peeve of mine, that FRED does not clearly label their new home median sale price series as only encompassing new construction.
November 25, 2025 at 6:38 PM
It remains a major disservice to public discourse on house prices, and major personal pet peeve of mine, that FRED does not clearly label their new home median sale price series as only encompassing new construction.