Jake Grumbach
@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
policy, $, political economy of race // 70-80s soul, 90s hip hop // #DubNation // proud product of miscegenation // Berkeley prof (formerly: Princeton CSDP, UW)
the way they design casinos, you really can spend 19 years in a day
a man stands in front of a sign that reads trusted leadership for a stronger america
Alt: a man stands in front of a sign that reads trusted leadership for a stronger america
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:08 PM
the way they design casinos, you really can spend 19 years in a day
Reposted by Jake Grumbach
❤️ thank you dogg. I imagine in here it’ll still be strategic even if it’s common knowledge that player 2 is of type Never Quits
November 10, 2025 at 4:51 PM
❤️ thank you dogg. I imagine in here it’ll still be strategic even if it’s common knowledge that player 2 is of type Never Quits
So it’s just hard to explain this as a strategic decision at all. Instead it looks like what they learned was their own unwillingness to see people harmed by the shutdown and their own lack of leadership, not anything about strategy
November 10, 2025 at 4:42 PM
So it’s just hard to explain this as a strategic decision at all. Instead it looks like what they learned was their own unwillingness to see people harmed by the shutdown and their own lack of leadership, not anything about strategy
To explain why this happened now in strategic terms, you need some kind of theory that Dems suddenly learned something. But all they learned recently was that the shutdown was going well (the election).
November 10, 2025 at 4:42 PM
To explain why this happened now in strategic terms, you need some kind of theory that Dems suddenly learned something. But all they learned recently was that the shutdown was going well (the election).
The people yearn for graphs of the parameter space, for comparative statics
November 10, 2025 at 4:41 AM
The people yearn for graphs of the parameter space, for comparative statics
Ok sorry to belabor but this relies a lot on dem senator beliefs about timing of GOP nuke to be accurate. A touch of imperfect info opens up the explanations bigly
November 10, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Ok sorry to belabor but this relies a lot on dem senator beliefs about timing of GOP nuke to be accurate. A touch of imperfect info opens up the explanations bigly
Thanks yes totally—I’m now stuck on their belief that there will be a Dem senate majority in their lifetime so their policy payoff comes in the afterlife
November 10, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Thanks yes totally—I’m now stuck on their belief that there will be a Dem senate majority in their lifetime so their policy payoff comes in the afterlife
No, now more than ever I need positive theory. I’m actually really struggling to fit this in pivotal politics
November 10, 2025 at 4:07 AM
No, now more than ever I need positive theory. I’m actually really struggling to fit this in pivotal politics
Adding in beliefs about positions of future pivots is interesting, plus nuking being sticky. Also suggests Dem mods have beliefs that they’ll have the majority in the future even after caving
November 10, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Adding in beliefs about positions of future pivots is interesting, plus nuking being sticky. Also suggests Dem mods have beliefs that they’ll have the majority in the future even after caving
The GOP preferences are clearly as you describe 💯
The Dem preferences, if they’re as you describe, are insanely unstrategic. Why do the game of chicken at all if this is the moment you know you’d cave
The Dem preferences, if they’re as you describe, are insanely unstrategic. Why do the game of chicken at all if this is the moment you know you’d cave
November 10, 2025 at 3:59 AM
The GOP preferences are clearly as you describe 💯
The Dem preferences, if they’re as you describe, are insanely unstrategic. Why do the game of chicken at all if this is the moment you know you’d cave
The Dem preferences, if they’re as you describe, are insanely unstrategic. Why do the game of chicken at all if this is the moment you know you’d cave
Truly seems to me like the best explanations are a misreading of public opinion and an ideological commitment to the filibuster by some elderly people
November 10, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Truly seems to me like the best explanations are a misreading of public opinion and an ideological commitment to the filibuster by some elderly people
I thought that was very interesting but thought more about it and I need more info. Hard to explain w spatial model (unless I’m missing something). Most GOP stuff like tax cuts can be via reconciliation, Dems could always nuke later, etc. Gotta be a bargaining in front of audience thing?
November 10, 2025 at 3:08 AM
I thought that was very interesting but thought more about it and I need more info. Hard to explain w spatial model (unless I’m missing something). Most GOP stuff like tax cuts can be via reconciliation, Dems could always nuke later, etc. Gotta be a bargaining in front of audience thing?