Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
@jackmitcham.bsky.social
👨💼 Risk analyst / Operations researcher
🚀 Sci-fi writer working to become a sci-fi *author*
📖 Writing a novel set on a tidally-locked iceball planet, where wealth inequality follows the temperature gradient
👱♂️ Dad to the sweetest boy in the world
🚀 Sci-fi writer working to become a sci-fi *author*
📖 Writing a novel set on a tidally-locked iceball planet, where wealth inequality follows the temperature gradient
👱♂️ Dad to the sweetest boy in the world
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
Jesus Christ @lukeoneil47.bsky.social
December 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Jesus Christ @lukeoneil47.bsky.social
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
One very familiar pattern in AI and science right now is going from a lot of false starts on hard tasks (there have been near-misses where AI appears to solve an Erdos problem but just finds an old solution no one knew about) to actually doing the thing soon after.
Three Erdos problems in 3 days.
Three Erdos problems in 3 days.
January 11, 2026 at 12:39 PM
One very familiar pattern in AI and science right now is going from a lot of false starts on hard tasks (there have been near-misses where AI appears to solve an Erdos problem but just finds an old solution no one knew about) to actually doing the thing soon after.
Three Erdos problems in 3 days.
Three Erdos problems in 3 days.
This is absolutely fascinating. So many of our human cognitive biases have been encoded into the vector space of LLMs.
Also interesting: apparently a key to getting this to work is to force gpt5.2 to work offline, meaning without access to the Internet. The reason is that, if it can search the web, it'll realize you've given it an open Erdos problem, and insist it's not capable of solving it.
January 11, 2026 at 12:41 PM
This is absolutely fascinating. So many of our human cognitive biases have been encoded into the vector space of LLMs.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).
January 8, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).
I think she's trying to say that going to war against our NATO allies would be acceptable if bread was cheaper.
The White House is laser focused on threatening a military takeover of Greenland.
Where’s the same focus on lowering costs?
Where’s the same focus on lowering costs?
January 7, 2026 at 4:49 PM
I think she's trying to say that going to war against our NATO allies would be acceptable if bread was cheaper.
If brute force was all that mattered, Stephen Miller would have been murdered a long time ago.
Miller owes his life to the laws and norms he wants to undermine.
Miller owes his life to the laws and norms he wants to undermine.
"Iron laws of the world"? Some of America's most important national accomplishments are about leading humanity away from this kind of bullshit.
If we let ideologues like Stephen Miller drag us back into a world where brute force is all that matters, all of us will be less safe.
If we let ideologues like Stephen Miller drag us back into a world where brute force is all that matters, all of us will be less safe.
January 6, 2026 at 9:31 PM
If brute force was all that mattered, Stephen Miller would have been murdered a long time ago.
Miller owes his life to the laws and norms he wants to undermine.
Miller owes his life to the laws and norms he wants to undermine.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
It’s weird that water became THE issue for why many people (publicly) dislike AI. Of all the concerns about AI use, even just limiting it to environmental concerns, water use is generally one of the least important.
But when I speak with people, especially younger ones, water usually comes up first
But when I speak with people, especially younger ones, water usually comes up first
January 5, 2026 at 7:09 PM
It’s weird that water became THE issue for why many people (publicly) dislike AI. Of all the concerns about AI use, even just limiting it to environmental concerns, water use is generally one of the least important.
But when I speak with people, especially younger ones, water usually comes up first
But when I speak with people, especially younger ones, water usually comes up first
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
absolutely bizarre to see a violent, rogue american regime, which is threatening military attacks on a bunch of major trading partners and close allies, and openly fantasizing about hitler-style wars of territorial conquest, covered in the tone of horse-race political commentary
January 4, 2026 at 3:14 AM
absolutely bizarre to see a violent, rogue american regime, which is threatening military attacks on a bunch of major trading partners and close allies, and openly fantasizing about hitler-style wars of territorial conquest, covered in the tone of horse-race political commentary
Apropos of nothing, a good song. www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl9K...
Black Masks & Gasoline
YouTube video by Rise Against - Topic
www.youtube.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:57 AM
Apropos of nothing, a good song. www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl9K...
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
The moderate position is indeed The Hague
January 3, 2026 at 6:45 AM
The moderate position is indeed The Hague
Pardon the language, but I'm angry.
January 3, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Pardon the language, but I'm angry.
Lol, they hung up on me after 25 minutes on hold. "Due to call volume, we will not be able to handle your call today." It's 2:25pm.
Unemployment insurance is so broken. I became unemployed in October. I'm still waiting on my first payment.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
January 2, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Lol, they hung up on me after 25 minutes on hold. "Due to call volume, we will not be able to handle your call today." It's 2:25pm.
Unemployment insurance is so broken. I became unemployed in October. I'm still waiting on my first payment.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
January 2, 2026 at 7:05 PM
Unemployment insurance is so broken. I became unemployed in October. I'm still waiting on my first payment.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
Just tried calling them, and the estimated wait time is nearly 2 hours. There are 203 people in the queue ahead of me.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
A List of Predictions Made in 1926 About 2026
🧵
🧵
January 1, 2026 at 5:13 PM
A List of Predictions Made in 1926 About 2026
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🧵
I'm so glad my son is no longer in day care. This is scary.
CNN: “Surely you don’t think a daycare should be unlocked.”
SHIRLEY: “There should be a reception area.”
CNN: “No, every day care is locked.”
SHIRLEY: “Fair point.” 🤔
He shows up to a day care with masked men and wonders why they don’t let him in.
SHIRLEY: “There should be a reception area.”
CNN: “No, every day care is locked.”
SHIRLEY: “Fair point.” 🤔
He shows up to a day care with masked men and wonders why they don’t let him in.
December 31, 2025 at 8:54 PM
I'm so glad my son is no longer in day care. This is scary.
They're just f'ing with us now
Sauron is appearing on the scene as concerns rise about crime among the most wealthy.
Sauron, the high-end home security startup for "super premium" customers, plucks a new CEO out of Sonos | TechCrunch
Sauron is appearing on the scene as concerns rise about crime among the most wealthy.
techcrunch.com
December 29, 2025 at 2:27 AM
They're just f'ing with us now
Way easier said than done.
You don't need AI as an indie author, you need community. You need people who can help you when you're burning out (and vice versa, importantly). Trade labor with each other, beta read for one another, connect with editors and cover artists. Teach & learn. Help promote one another.
December 29, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Way easier said than done.
This leads me to an interesting thought... when is an LLM "good enough?"
Consider video games. My CPU and GPU is "good enough" when I can run the latest games at max settings. That has been plateauing lately. In the 90s, I had to upgrade my computer like once a year to keep up. 1/
Consider video games. My CPU and GPU is "good enough" when I can run the latest games at max settings. That has been plateauing lately. In the 90s, I had to upgrade my computer like once a year to keep up. 1/
We are currently in the "free samples" phase of the drug dealer business plan. OpenAI spent >$150 billion this year to make less than $20 billion. This can't go on forever!
December 29, 2025 at 12:20 AM
This leads me to an interesting thought... when is an LLM "good enough?"
Consider video games. My CPU and GPU is "good enough" when I can run the latest games at max settings. That has been plateauing lately. In the 90s, I had to upgrade my computer like once a year to keep up. 1/
Consider video games. My CPU and GPU is "good enough" when I can run the latest games at max settings. That has been plateauing lately. In the 90s, I had to upgrade my computer like once a year to keep up. 1/
I've never heard of this film until today, and now I've seen it mentioned three different places within 30 minutes of waking up.
My wife showed me the trailer, a newsletter said it was the best film of the year, and this post.
It looks like your average action movie. I don't get it.
My wife showed me the trailer, a newsletter said it was the best film of the year, and this post.
It looks like your average action movie. I don't get it.
Benicio del Toro was maybe the best part of this. Also I was surprised at how much it all still felt like a PTA film after one of the trailers I watched had given me the impression I was in for more Coens brothers than PTA.
Seated for the second time today
December 27, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I've never heard of this film until today, and now I've seen it mentioned three different places within 30 minutes of waking up.
My wife showed me the trailer, a newsletter said it was the best film of the year, and this post.
It looks like your average action movie. I don't get it.
My wife showed me the trailer, a newsletter said it was the best film of the year, and this post.
It looks like your average action movie. I don't get it.
Santa's phylactery remains hidden, and he performed his ritualistic annual duty once again.
It's only a matter of time before it is exposed due to sea ice melt. Then, Santa becomes vulnerable.
It's only a matter of time before it is exposed due to sea ice melt. Then, Santa becomes vulnerable.
December 25, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Santa's phylactery remains hidden, and he performed his ritualistic annual duty once again.
It's only a matter of time before it is exposed due to sea ice melt. Then, Santa becomes vulnerable.
It's only a matter of time before it is exposed due to sea ice melt. Then, Santa becomes vulnerable.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
Great thread on how complicated awards can be these days.
Passing laws to regulate AI will not be easier than sci-fi award rules.
Passing laws to regulate AI will not be easier than sci-fi award rules.
someone help I tried to see if I could expand on sfwa's nonsense rule #2 about "process" in a way that would give adequate guidance across prose, poetry, games, comics, film, tv, and plays without stressing writers or administrators into an early grave
I'm 7 pages in and it's not even good
I'm 7 pages in and it's not even good
December 24, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Great thread on how complicated awards can be these days.
Passing laws to regulate AI will not be easier than sci-fi award rules.
Passing laws to regulate AI will not be easier than sci-fi award rules.
I haven't read the book, but I've done extensive research on COVID mitigation and have a published paper on it. Early COVID lockdowns likely weren't worth it because they were half-measures.
In almost every instance, lockdowns didn't begin until after the virus was circulating widely.
In almost every instance, lockdowns didn't begin until after the virus was circulating widely.
The thesis of the book is that early COVID lockdowns weren't worth it and mid-COVID mitigation measures like masks, contact tracing and business closures don't work.
This is laughably false and the authors have endorsed the people now running Trump's HHS.
This is laughably false and the authors have endorsed the people now running Trump's HHS.
December 24, 2025 at 11:06 AM
I haven't read the book, but I've done extensive research on COVID mitigation and have a published paper on it. Early COVID lockdowns likely weren't worth it because they were half-measures.
In almost every instance, lockdowns didn't begin until after the virus was circulating widely.
In almost every instance, lockdowns didn't begin until after the virus was circulating widely.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
The economy is a paranormal entity that our greatest dimensional scholars (macroeconomists) understand only superficially. They have induced a variety of changes in it by manipulating arcane forces like "money supply" with some success. But it remains protean and unpredictable.
December 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The economy is a paranormal entity that our greatest dimensional scholars (macroeconomists) understand only superficially. They have induced a variety of changes in it by manipulating arcane forces like "money supply" with some success. But it remains protean and unpredictable.
Reposted by Jack Mitcham, Ph.D.
A corollary of “everything I want to believe is true, and I should be continually reaffirmed in those beliefs” is “anyone who believes something uncomfortable or complicated probably WANTS that thing to be true, and is bad”
There’s that plus what happened with the Darling thing, which is the belief that statement of facts is equated with endorsement. Some of the quotes and replies there were really embarrassing from people I thought knew better.
December 23, 2025 at 3:53 PM
A corollary of “everything I want to believe is true, and I should be continually reaffirmed in those beliefs” is “anyone who believes something uncomfortable or complicated probably WANTS that thing to be true, and is bad”