Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
November 28, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
November 3, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes!
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
October 20, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes!
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
October 3, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
September 29, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
September 26, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
September 26, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
September 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
September 1, 2025 at 11:32 AM
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today.
Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?
@kofeth.bsky.social
Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?
@kofeth.bsky.social
Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
June 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
May 16, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
May 13, 2025 at 9:05 AM
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
May 2, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
May 2, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
April 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
April 4, 2025 at 2:04 PM
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
March 25, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
March 10, 2025 at 10:24 AM
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
March 7, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
March 3, 2025 at 1:18 PM
#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social: