Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
November 28, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
aiece.org/general-meet...
See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.
🎉 Our paper “Seeing and Hearing is Believing” is conditionally accepted at the European Economic Review!
We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#research #economics #monetarypolicy
We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#research #economics #monetarypolicy
Seeing and Hearing is Believing: The Role of Audiovisual Communication in Shaping Inflation Expectations
This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations abou
papers.ssrn.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:02 AM
🎉 Our paper “Seeing and Hearing is Believing” is conditionally accepted at the European Economic Review!
We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#research #economics #monetarypolicy
We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#research #economics #monetarypolicy
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
November 3, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes!
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
October 20, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes!
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
October 3, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
September 29, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
September 26, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
September 26, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
nowcastinglab.org
September 22, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
September 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
September 1, 2025 at 11:32 AM
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org):
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
How the Nowcasting Lab Consumed 10,000 MATLAB Licenses
In a recent and rather unexpected turn of events, the Nowcasting Lab managed to use up all available MATLAB licenses at ETH Zurich—approximately 10,000 in total. As a result, MATLAB license allocat…
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
July 11, 2025 at 1:58 PM
News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org):
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today.
Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?
@kofeth.bsky.social
Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?
@kofeth.bsky.social
Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
June 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
May 16, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
May 13, 2025 at 9:05 AM
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
May 9, 2025 at 1:35 PM
#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
May 2, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
May 2, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
April 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
April 4, 2025 at 2:04 PM
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
March 25, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
March 10, 2025 at 10:24 AM
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
March 7, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Reposted by Heiner Mikosch
"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...
Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko – Trump startet Handelskrieg - Tagesschau - Play SRF
Die von US-Präsident Donald Trump angekündigten Importzölle auf Waren aus Mexiko und Kanada sind in Kraft getreten. Jetzt droht ein nordamerikanischer Handelskonflikt von unbestimmter Dauer und ungewi...
www.srf.ch
March 5, 2025 at 8:54 AM
"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...