Hank Gargiulo
@hankgargiulo.bsky.social
Data stuff @ ESPN Analytics
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
I'll be evaluating trades all deadline season per usual. Keion White deal in here now, Kyle Dugger on its way!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
October 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
I'll be evaluating trades all deadline season per usual. Keion White deal in here now, Kyle Dugger on its way!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
October 26, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Week 8 betting guide from Matt Bowen and me!
Offensive props in there for now -- will add defense when they become available!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Offensive props in there for now -- will add defense when they become available!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
October 24, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Week 8 betting guide from Matt Bowen and me!
Offensive props in there for now -- will add defense when they become available!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Offensive props in there for now -- will add defense when they become available!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
"It is just one game" - I have to keep telling myself after watching Wemby last night. He posted +17.1 net points last night and his height advantage just seemed impossible for anyone to deal with.
He had both the best offense and best defense of the night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
He had both the best offense and best defense of the night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
October 23, 2025 at 2:35 PM
"It is just one game" - I have to keep telling myself after watching Wemby last night. He posted +17.1 net points last night and his height advantage just seemed impossible for anyone to deal with.
He had both the best offense and best defense of the night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
He had both the best offense and best defense of the night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
The ESPN Analytics Daily Awards for things like
- best bench player
- best transition
- best net rebounding
- late shot clock performance
- lots more
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- best bench player
- best transition
- best net rebounding
- late shot clock performance
- lots more
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
October 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
The ESPN Analytics Daily Awards for things like
- best bench player
- best transition
- best net rebounding
- late shot clock performance
- lots more
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- best bench player
- best transition
- best net rebounding
- late shot clock performance
- lots more
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Preparing for NBA games tomorrow! We added to our box scores.
For example, this chart from the Finals G7, at the bottom of the boxscore, shows net points players added through defensive and offensive *turnovers* alone, Caruso at the upper right, Pacers lower left.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For example, this chart from the Finals G7, at the bottom of the boxscore, shows net points players added through defensive and offensive *turnovers* alone, Caruso at the upper right, Pacers lower left.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
October 20, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Preparing for NBA games tomorrow! We added to our box scores.
For example, this chart from the Finals G7, at the bottom of the boxscore, shows net points players added through defensive and offensive *turnovers* alone, Caruso at the upper right, Pacers lower left.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For example, this chart from the Finals G7, at the bottom of the boxscore, shows net points players added through defensive and offensive *turnovers* alone, Caruso at the upper right, Pacers lower left.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Added sacks and tackle props -- where my models perform the best, by far -- last night and then, when more went up, more this morning.
All here!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
All here!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
October 12, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Added sacks and tackle props -- where my models perform the best, by far -- last night and then, when more went up, more this morning.
All here!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
All here!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Added sack and tackle props to this week's betting column this morning! Lots of fun ones in there.
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
October 5, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Added sack and tackle props to this week's betting column this morning! Lots of fun ones in there.
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Sack bets at ESPN BET went up this morning and I've added what my sack model likes to our best bets column!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
September 28, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Sack bets at ESPN BET went up this morning and I've added what my sack model likes to our best bets column!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
In light of the QB injuries around the league, I ranked the 12 best backup quarterbacks in the NFL right now:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
September 16, 2025 at 5:12 PM
In light of the QB injuries around the league, I ranked the 12 best backup quarterbacks in the NFL right now:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
To finish up the regular season, this plot shows the accumulated net points by WNBA rookies.
- Bueckers stays #1
- Citron tailed off after the Sykes trade
- As I've noted before, you don't see obvious growth with most rookies - them getting better with time. Improvement in the offseason.
- Bueckers stays #1
- Citron tailed off after the Sykes trade
- As I've noted before, you don't see obvious growth with most rookies - them getting better with time. Improvement in the offseason.
September 15, 2025 at 9:10 PM
To finish up the regular season, this plot shows the accumulated net points by WNBA rookies.
- Bueckers stays #1
- Citron tailed off after the Sykes trade
- As I've noted before, you don't see obvious growth with most rookies - them getting better with time. Improvement in the offseason.
- Bueckers stays #1
- Citron tailed off after the Sykes trade
- As I've noted before, you don't see obvious growth with most rookies - them getting better with time. Improvement in the offseason.
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Seattle has a chance to slow A'ja Wilson; Wilson's worst offensive numbers were against the Storm. They force turnovers and don't commit a lot (a little like OKC's formula in the NBA). This series looks closer than I would have guessed.
September 14, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Seattle has a chance to slow A'ja Wilson; Wilson's worst offensive numbers were against the Storm. They force turnovers and don't commit a lot (a little like OKC's formula in the NBA). This series looks closer than I would have guessed.
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Atlanta has an advantage on both sides of the ball over the Fever. Their offensive advantage on half court 2s and on the glass is big. They won't shut down Mitchell and Boston, but should take away enough of the easy stuff.
September 14, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Atlanta has an advantage on both sides of the ball over the Fever. Their offensive advantage on half court 2s and on the glass is big. They won't shut down Mitchell and Boston, but should take away enough of the easy stuff.
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
The Liberty have the best transition defense in the league, facing the top offensive transition player in Alyssa Thomas. It looks like NY will be able to contain her and that leads the reasons why their D looks better than Phoenix's offense.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-team-4FA
espnanalytics.com/wnba-team-4FA
September 12, 2025 at 7:52 PM
The Liberty have the best transition defense in the league, facing the top offensive transition player in Alyssa Thomas. It looks like NY will be able to contain her and that leads the reasons why their D looks better than Phoenix's offense.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-team-4FA
espnanalytics.com/wnba-team-4FA
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
We have a Senior Sports Data Scientist role open on the ESPN Analytics team!
www.disneycareers.com/en/job/-/-/3...
www.disneycareers.com/en/job/-/-/3...
September 10, 2025 at 1:50 PM
We have a Senior Sports Data Scientist role open on the ESPN Analytics team!
www.disneycareers.com/en/job/-/-/3...
www.disneycareers.com/en/job/-/-/3...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Top clutch players in the WNBA: most total net points offense and defense in Q4 or later, score within 5, less than 5 min left.
If you only look at offense, it's Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, then Alyssa Thomas. If you include defense, AT is in front.
If you only look at offense, it's Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, then Alyssa Thomas. If you include defense, AT is in front.
September 9, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Top clutch players in the WNBA: most total net points offense and defense in Q4 or later, score within 5, less than 5 min left.
If you only look at offense, it's Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, then Alyssa Thomas. If you include defense, AT is in front.
If you only look at offense, it's Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, then Alyssa Thomas. If you include defense, AT is in front.
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Normally our NFL analysis includes varying shades of uncertainty. Not today.
We simulated the NFL season *one* time to see how it played out. Here is the story of that single simulation:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
We simulated the NFL season *one* time to see how it played out. Here is the story of that single simulation:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Simulating the entire 2025 NFL season: The biggest storylines from one possible outcome
We played out one of the Football Power Index's 10,000 season sims, from Week 1 through Super Bowl LX.
www.espn.com
September 1, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Normally our NFL analysis includes varying shades of uncertainty. Not today.
We simulated the NFL season *one* time to see how it played out. Here is the story of that single simulation:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
We simulated the NFL season *one* time to see how it played out. Here is the story of that single simulation:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
ESPN's 2025 NFL preview: analysis from NFL Nation, projections from FPI, fantasy analysis from Matt Bowen, stats to know from ESPN Research and bold predictions from me!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Let's preview the 2025 NFL season: Bold predictions, strengths and concerns for all 32 teams
Here's everything you need to know ahead of the NFL regular season, including how teams rank before Week 1.
www.espn.com
September 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM
ESPN's 2025 NFL preview: analysis from NFL Nation, projections from FPI, fantasy analysis from Matt Bowen, stats to know from ESPN Research and bold predictions from me!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
One of my favorite stories every preseason: sack projections! This is the fifth year we’re running outputs from this model.
Who is No. 1? Who stands out? What’s the full top 50?
All here! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Who is No. 1? Who stands out? What’s the full top 50?
All here! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Projecting the NFL's sack leaders for 2025: Which pass rushers will get after the QB this season?
Will Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons or Trey Hendrickson lead the NFL in sacks? Seth Walder projects this season's top sack-getters.
www.espn.com
August 23, 2025 at 2:30 PM
One of my favorite stories every preseason: sack projections! This is the fifth year we’re running outputs from this model.
Who is No. 1? Who stands out? What’s the full top 50?
All here! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Who is No. 1? Who stands out? What’s the full top 50?
All here! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
The +3.7 net points that A'ja Wilson posted yesterday on 20 total rebounds was easily the most of the year. Next best was +2.7 net points on 13 rebounds by Temi Fagbenle on 6/9 when she had 8 offensive rebounds, best in a game this yr.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
August 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The +3.7 net points that A'ja Wilson posted yesterday on 20 total rebounds was easily the most of the year. Next best was +2.7 net points on 13 rebounds by Temi Fagbenle on 6/9 when she had 8 offensive rebounds, best in a game this yr.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
The Valkyries won a squeaker in DC. Kate Martin helped propel the early lead. Sonia Citron brough the Mystics back. GS outshot WAS from 3, 11/26 to 7/24, worth about ten points toward their margin of victory, a margin they almost lost with turnovers.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
August 1, 2025 at 11:33 AM
The Valkyries won a squeaker in DC. Kate Martin helped propel the early lead. Sonia Citron brough the Mystics back. GS outshot WAS from 3, 11/26 to 7/24, worth about ten points toward their margin of victory, a margin they almost lost with turnovers.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
espnanalytics.com/wnba-daily-s...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Offseason grades for every team, from the Rams (A) to the Browns (B+) to the Patriots (C+) to the Falcons (C-) to the Saints (D).
Important note that the grades are an evaluation of *decision-making*, as opposed to a pure measure of talent added.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Important note that the grades are an evaluation of *decision-making*, as opposed to a pure measure of talent added.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
We graded the offseason: Here's who crushed it and flubbed it, from the Rams (A) to the Saints (D)
We handed out offseason report cards to all 32 NFL teams, factoring in signings, extensions, trades, draft picks, hirings -- you name it.
www.espn.com
July 11, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Offseason grades for every team, from the Rams (A) to the Browns (B+) to the Patriots (C+) to the Falcons (C-) to the Saints (D).
Important note that the grades are an evaluation of *decision-making*, as opposed to a pure measure of talent added.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Important note that the grades are an evaluation of *decision-making*, as opposed to a pure measure of talent added.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
The draft simulator and draft day predictor have undergone their final pre-draft update!
The predictor will update live during the draft.
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
The predictor will update live during the draft.
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
April 24, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The draft simulator and draft day predictor have undergone their final pre-draft update!
The predictor will update live during the draft.
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
The predictor will update live during the draft.
espnanalytics.com/draft-sim/
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
If the draft day predictor had a sportsbook account, these are the bets it would make: www.espn.com/espn/betting...
April 23, 2025 at 6:18 PM
If the draft day predictor had a sportsbook account, these are the bets it would make: www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Reposted by Hank Gargiulo
Wrote today about forecasting this year's NFL Draft using the draft day predictor!
www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...
www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...
April 22, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Wrote today about forecasting this year's NFL Draft using the draft day predictor!
www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...
www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...