Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
Pinned
Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
· Jan 22
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Players with the biggest difference in offensive performance between wins and losses.
I've highlighted the players with some consistency with last year.
Mitchell, Harden, Curry are commonly known. MPJ and Hield hadn't registered with me before.
I've highlighted the players with some consistency with last year.
Mitchell, Harden, Curry are commonly known. MPJ and Hield hadn't registered with me before.
December 4, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Players with the biggest difference in offensive performance between wins and losses.
I've highlighted the players with some consistency with last year.
Mitchell, Harden, Curry are commonly known. MPJ and Hield hadn't registered with me before.
I've highlighted the players with some consistency with last year.
Mitchell, Harden, Curry are commonly known. MPJ and Hield hadn't registered with me before.
I linked to this yesterday, but it's worth bringing up again.
When I first started doing analytics, it was the base assumption that players are, on average, the same. Now I am more interested in what *changes* them. This highlights one cause.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
When I first started doing analytics, it was the base assumption that players are, on average, the same. Now I am more interested in what *changes* them. This highlights one cause.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Newcomer slump? Why Bane, Turner and others were off to slow starts on new teams
New research by Ben Alamar and ESPN's Dean Oliver helps explain why players get off to such slow starts after swapping teams.
www.espn.com
December 4, 2025 at 2:24 PM
I linked to this yesterday, but it's worth bringing up again.
When I first started doing analytics, it was the base assumption that players are, on average, the same. Now I am more interested in what *changes* them. This highlights one cause.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
When I first started doing analytics, it was the base assumption that players are, on average, the same. Now I am more interested in what *changes* them. This highlights one cause.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Reposted by Dean Oliver
Wrote today about how novel research from @benalamar.bsky.social and @deanolytics.bsky.social on the impact of teammate chemistry helps explain why Desmond Bane and other high-profile newcomers got off to slow starts, as well as the implications going forward: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Newcomer slump? Why Bane, Turner and others were off to slow starts on new teams
New research by Ben Alamar and ESPN's Dean Oliver helps explain why players get off to such slow starts after swapping teams.
www.espn.com
December 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Wrote today about how novel research from @benalamar.bsky.social and @deanolytics.bsky.social on the impact of teammate chemistry helps explain why Desmond Bane and other high-profile newcomers got off to slow starts, as well as the implications going forward: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Not as sexy as his 20+ points scored run, but SGA has 7 games of 10+ total net points in his last 12 games.
There were only seven players who had that many 10+ games for all of last year and one was SGA. (Can you name the others?)
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
There were only seven players who had that many 10+ games for all of last year and one was SGA. (Can you name the others?)
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
December 3, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Not as sexy as his 20+ points scored run, but SGA has 7 games of 10+ total net points in his last 12 games.
There were only seven players who had that many 10+ games for all of last year and one was SGA. (Can you name the others?)
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
There were only seven players who had that many 10+ games for all of last year and one was SGA. (Can you name the others?)
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
I knew Kevin Durant was a mid-range monster, but I didn't realize that he was top 3 each year in Net Pts/G from mid-range from 2020-21...
...until this year, where his mid-range game is actually negative.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
(On that page, go to Best: Mid-range)
...until this year, where his mid-range game is actually negative.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
(On that page, go to Best: Mid-range)
December 3, 2025 at 3:35 PM
I knew Kevin Durant was a mid-range monster, but I didn't realize that he was top 3 each year in Net Pts/G from mid-range from 2020-21...
...until this year, where his mid-range game is actually negative.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
(On that page, go to Best: Mid-range)
...until this year, where his mid-range game is actually negative.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
(On that page, go to Best: Mid-range)
I was looking through what is improving for Cooper Flagg. A big part is that he's better at the rim, where the black line below moves farther right going up (more recent).
You can look at categories like turnovers, drawing fouls, floaters, etc. here espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
You can look at categories like turnovers, drawing fouls, floaters, etc. here espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
December 2, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I was looking through what is improving for Cooper Flagg. A big part is that he's better at the rim, where the black line below moves farther right going up (more recent).
You can look at categories like turnovers, drawing fouls, floaters, etc. here espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
You can look at categories like turnovers, drawing fouls, floaters, etc. here espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Last night, the Lakers' big three posted -8.2 total net points. LeBron had -5.3, Reaves had -3.4, and Luka had +0.5.
That was their third worst combined game since Luka joined the team. Their worst was a 29-point loss to OKC on 11/12 when they had -14.3
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
That was their third worst combined game since Luka joined the team. Their worst was a 29-point loss to OKC on 11/12 when they had -14.3
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
December 2, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Last night, the Lakers' big three posted -8.2 total net points. LeBron had -5.3, Reaves had -3.4, and Luka had +0.5.
That was their third worst combined game since Luka joined the team. Their worst was a 29-point loss to OKC on 11/12 when they had -14.3
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
That was their third worst combined game since Luka joined the team. Their worst was a 29-point loss to OKC on 11/12 when they had -14.3
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
I knew that Nikola Jokic was the best passer in the league, but I didn't know that Davion Mitchell was passing it so well this year.
ESPN Analytics Net Points Award Leaderboard:
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
ESPN Analytics Net Points Award Leaderboard:
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
December 2, 2025 at 2:50 PM
I knew that Nikola Jokic was the best passer in the league, but I didn't know that Davion Mitchell was passing it so well this year.
ESPN Analytics Net Points Award Leaderboard:
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
ESPN Analytics Net Points Award Leaderboard:
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
Something I didn't know and learned from the ESPN Analytics Award Leaderboard:
Deuce McBride has been the best offensive player in late clock situations.
KD was best last year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
Deuce McBride has been the best offensive player in late clock situations.
KD was best last year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
December 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Something I didn't know and learned from the ESPN Analytics Award Leaderboard:
Deuce McBride has been the best offensive player in late clock situations.
KD was best last year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
Deuce McBride has been the best offensive player in late clock situations.
KD was best last year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
After a shaky start, Desmond Bane's game log shows a steady increase in performance.
See this and all players with our new game log tool.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
See this and all players with our new game log tool.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
December 2, 2025 at 1:35 PM
After a shaky start, Desmond Bane's game log shows a steady increase in performance.
See this and all players with our new game log tool.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
See this and all players with our new game log tool.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
The NBA Players of the Week with total net points gained
- It can't be SGA and Jokic every week
- Eastern Conference has spread the wealth
- One win is about 30 net pts, so some players adding more than one win per week by themselves
- It can't be SGA and Jokic every week
- Eastern Conference has spread the wealth
- One win is about 30 net pts, so some players adding more than one win per week by themselves
December 1, 2025 at 10:29 PM
The NBA Players of the Week with total net points gained
- It can't be SGA and Jokic every week
- Eastern Conference has spread the wealth
- One win is about 30 net pts, so some players adding more than one win per week by themselves
- It can't be SGA and Jokic every week
- Eastern Conference has spread the wealth
- One win is about 30 net pts, so some players adding more than one win per week by themselves
Cup MVP candidates
- SGA and two Lakers are the clear leaders thus far.
- There are some other 30+ ppg scorers who are farther down the list: Curry, Brunson, J Murray, Spida, Ant, Harden.
- Given that point differential matters, guys may run up the numbers some.
- SGA and two Lakers are the clear leaders thus far.
- There are some other 30+ ppg scorers who are farther down the list: Curry, Brunson, J Murray, Spida, Ant, Harden.
- Given that point differential matters, guys may run up the numbers some.
December 1, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Cup MVP candidates
- SGA and two Lakers are the clear leaders thus far.
- There are some other 30+ ppg scorers who are farther down the list: Curry, Brunson, J Murray, Spida, Ant, Harden.
- Given that point differential matters, guys may run up the numbers some.
- SGA and two Lakers are the clear leaders thus far.
- There are some other 30+ ppg scorers who are farther down the list: Curry, Brunson, J Murray, Spida, Ant, Harden.
- Given that point differential matters, guys may run up the numbers some.
This is Cooper Flagg's running total net pts through last night
- He's basically average over the last 3 weeks
- No statistically significant improvement yet
- Has 4th highest usage among rookies - behind Harper, Fears, Queen
- He (+ other Mavs) helped by having a PG on the floor
- He's basically average over the last 3 weeks
- No statistically significant improvement yet
- Has 4th highest usage among rookies - behind Harper, Fears, Queen
- He (+ other Mavs) helped by having a PG on the floor
December 1, 2025 at 4:00 PM
This is Cooper Flagg's running total net pts through last night
- He's basically average over the last 3 weeks
- No statistically significant improvement yet
- Has 4th highest usage among rookies - behind Harper, Fears, Queen
- He (+ other Mavs) helped by having a PG on the floor
- He's basically average over the last 3 weeks
- No statistically significant improvement yet
- Has 4th highest usage among rookies - behind Harper, Fears, Queen
- He (+ other Mavs) helped by having a PG on the floor
Post-Thanksgiving Sophomore update
- Zach Edey is healthy and takes the top spot
- Mitchell in 2nd with Sheppard right there
- 14 positive players: 4 lottery, 5 late first, 5 second-rounders
- Avg improvement per player is about +1.0 from last year at this time
- Zach Edey is healthy and takes the top spot
- Mitchell in 2nd with Sheppard right there
- 14 positive players: 4 lottery, 5 late first, 5 second-rounders
- Avg improvement per player is about +1.0 from last year at this time
December 1, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Post-Thanksgiving Sophomore update
- Zach Edey is healthy and takes the top spot
- Mitchell in 2nd with Sheppard right there
- 14 positive players: 4 lottery, 5 late first, 5 second-rounders
- Avg improvement per player is about +1.0 from last year at this time
- Zach Edey is healthy and takes the top spot
- Mitchell in 2nd with Sheppard right there
- 14 positive players: 4 lottery, 5 late first, 5 second-rounders
- Avg improvement per player is about +1.0 from last year at this time
Post-Thanksgiving Rookie update:
- Harper is back and holds the top spot
- We have only five positive rookies: three lottery, two second rounders.
- Flagg is moving up
- Maxime Raynaud hit the leaderboard fairly high
- Knueppel has the most games of +1 or better with 10
- Harper is back and holds the top spot
- We have only five positive rookies: three lottery, two second rounders.
- Flagg is moving up
- Maxime Raynaud hit the leaderboard fairly high
- Knueppel has the most games of +1 or better with 10
December 1, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Post-Thanksgiving Rookie update:
- Harper is back and holds the top spot
- We have only five positive rookies: three lottery, two second rounders.
- Flagg is moving up
- Maxime Raynaud hit the leaderboard fairly high
- Knueppel has the most games of +1 or better with 10
- Harper is back and holds the top spot
- We have only five positive rookies: three lottery, two second rounders.
- Flagg is moving up
- Maxime Raynaud hit the leaderboard fairly high
- Knueppel has the most games of +1 or better with 10
Domantas Sabonis has the biggest change in performance from last year to this year, declining from +2.4 to -5.2. What happened?
On offense, he's shooting badly from layups to 3s, down ~10% overall. His assists to the perimeter are way down.
1/3
On offense, he's shooting badly from layups to 3s, down ~10% overall. His assists to the perimeter are way down.
1/3
November 26, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Domantas Sabonis has the biggest change in performance from last year to this year, declining from +2.4 to -5.2. What happened?
On offense, he's shooting badly from layups to 3s, down ~10% overall. His assists to the perimeter are way down.
1/3
On offense, he's shooting badly from layups to 3s, down ~10% overall. His assists to the perimeter are way down.
1/3
A rookie update, this time looking across a variety of metrics.
- Coward is pretty consistently chosen at the top, Knueppel, too.
- More inconsistency on Richard, Gonzalez, Harper, Kalkbrenner. Net Pts tends to like these guys more, probably because it has no prior baked in.
- Coward is pretty consistently chosen at the top, Knueppel, too.
- More inconsistency on Richard, Gonzalez, Harper, Kalkbrenner. Net Pts tends to like these guys more, probably because it has no prior baked in.
November 26, 2025 at 4:21 PM
A rookie update, this time looking across a variety of metrics.
- Coward is pretty consistently chosen at the top, Knueppel, too.
- More inconsistency on Richard, Gonzalez, Harper, Kalkbrenner. Net Pts tends to like these guys more, probably because it has no prior baked in.
- Coward is pretty consistently chosen at the top, Knueppel, too.
- More inconsistency on Richard, Gonzalez, Harper, Kalkbrenner. Net Pts tends to like these guys more, probably because it has no prior baked in.
I wanted to see if there were any defenders who are particularly good at contesting catch/shoot 3s. Incorporating number of shots, percentage, & quality of shooter, I get ~45 of each good and bad contesters (over last 2+ yrs) that are statistically significant.
Using GeniusIQ.
Using GeniusIQ.
November 25, 2025 at 9:50 PM
I wanted to see if there were any defenders who are particularly good at contesting catch/shoot 3s. Incorporating number of shots, percentage, & quality of shooter, I get ~45 of each good and bad contesters (over last 2+ yrs) that are statistically significant.
Using GeniusIQ.
Using GeniusIQ.
These players have the highest cost of defensive fouls and D3s violations in terms of Net Pts.
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
November 25, 2025 at 7:49 PM
These players have the highest cost of defensive fouls and D3s violations in terms of Net Pts.
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
- Indiana centers!
- And-ones, techs, transition takes can really hurt. Jokic has 6 D3 violations
- Dillon Brooks was top 10 the prior two years, not this year (yet).
Now here are the best individual players off the bench.
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
November 25, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Now here are the best individual players off the bench.
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
Kinda depressing (for competitive balance) that OKC - with the best starters - also has the top three players off the bench.
(Minimum 8 Gs off bench. Or Coby White's 2 G would have led.)
NBA starter vs bench update
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
November 25, 2025 at 6:24 PM
NBA starter vs bench update
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
- Best bench is Houston
- Best starters at OKC
- Biggest diff between starters and bench is DEN, though there is competition
- Memphis, SAC, and CHI getting more from bench than starters by good amount.
On the ESPNAnalytics NBA Daily Summary page, we list Daily Awards for lots of categories, like Speed Demon (most net pts in transition offense) and Glass Cleaner (most net points on rebounding).
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 25, 2025 at 3:47 PM
On the ESPNAnalytics NBA Daily Summary page, we list Daily Awards for lots of categories, like Speed Demon (most net pts in transition offense) and Glass Cleaner (most net points on rebounding).
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Coming soon is a tool to look at all categories for the yr.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
The Pistons are about 16 net pts/G better this year than 2 yrs ago.
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
November 25, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The Pistons are about 16 net pts/G better this year than 2 yrs ago.
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
About 60% is improvement in players still there, which is mostly core - Cade, Duren, Stewart, Ausar.
But the new guys are also dramatically better - Harris, LeVert, Reed, and the two-way Jenkins (?!?).
Does Houston's offensive rebound emphasis hurt their transition D?
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
November 25, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Does Houston's offensive rebound emphasis hurt their transition D?
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
- Small amount, it appears, but not enough to offset the gain they get on the glass. (I've found this before more generally.)
- GeniusIQ has them for 2nd fewest transition D poss, but high efficiency allowed
1/2
Rookie numbers, with a little bit of explanation for how they're doing as well (or as poorly) as they are.
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Rookie numbers, with a little bit of explanation for how they're doing as well (or as poorly) as they are.
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht
- Knueppel has most games with +1 or better
- Bailey climbed out of the bottom
- At this time last yr, these rookies were positive: McCain, Mitchell, Edey, Wells, Knecht