Dean Oliver
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Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
2.6K followers 54 following 480 posts
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · Jan 22
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
Statistical significance on performance differences with last year is tough this early. These are some guys doing it where I tend to believe it:
- Jalen Johnson,+0.6 per 48 to +3.7
- T Maxey, +0.6 to +4.6
- Duren, +1.2 to +5.8
- R Sheppard, -3.6 to +3.2
- B Mathurin, -0.8 to +4.2
November 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
ESPN Analytics has a draft simulator to play around with. Spin the lottery, see the prospects likely available for your pick, make deals. We'll update through the year.

espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
November 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
The Phoenix Suns are 9-6, better than the anticipated bottom 4 in the West. But their record is the same as last yr at this time.
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
November 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Looking at players who have done well despite their team. Specifically, they have positive net points but their +/- is negative.
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500

(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
November 18, 2025 at 8:23 PM
The 2021 NBA Draft Class has been pretty good. Some misses, for sure, but some long careers up and down the first round.

The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
November 18, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Last night, Denver's starters were 31.2 net points better than their bench, +14.1 to -17.1, and they lost by 3 to the Bulls).

That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
November 18, 2025 at 11:48 AM
There was speculation on-air about whether Kel'el Ware had his best career game tonight.

By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 18, 2025 at 3:52 AM
OKC took two overtimes to beat IND three weeks ago. They have also beaten New Orleans, Washington, Sac twice, Charlotte, Memphis, Dallas.

It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.

www.espn.com/nba/bpi
November 17, 2025 at 6:48 PM
A link to the Moneyball podcast I did a couple weeks ago.
- Watching sports in Hawaii
- Wemby and anti-gravity
- Maxey in Philly, expectations
- Cooper Flagg/Rookies in general
- Austin Reaves, multi-level shooters
- Division of credit

knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/mone...
Early NBA Trends With Dean Oliver
ESPN sports analyst discusses how emerging stars and advanced analytics are reshaping the NBA’s early season storylines.…Read More
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
November 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Pritchard's line fascinated me. He was so good in his shooting, yet his plus/minus was terrible. His oNet pts was +9.6, his dNet bad -6.2.

How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.

Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
November 17, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Some candidates for Best Clutch Player for yesterday alone, which had a lot of clutch time.
November 17, 2025 at 2:23 PM
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.

Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.

espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

Likely a mix in long run.
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9

Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.

espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.

Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts

Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
November 13, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.

But is he better?

He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.

By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.

It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.

And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
November 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!

It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.

espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 10, 2025 at 1:44 PM
OKC is 9-1 with a +13.5 scoring margin per game.

WAS is 1-9 with a -17.0 scoring margin per game.

One team nearly perfectly good and one nearly perfectly bad and the difference in scoring margins is 30 per G, which is about the avg number of net points per win.

espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
NBA Net Points - ESPN Analytics
Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver scores and more.
espnanalytics.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:00 PM
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
November 7, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.

But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
November 6, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5

Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.

espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons

You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM