Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
ESPN Analytics has a draft simulator to play around with. Spin the lottery, see the prospects likely available for your pick, make deals. We'll update through the year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
November 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
ESPN Analytics has a draft simulator to play around with. Spin the lottery, see the prospects likely available for your pick, make deals. We'll update through the year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
The Phoenix Suns are 9-6, better than the anticipated bottom 4 in the West. But their record is the same as last yr at this time.
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
November 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
The Phoenix Suns are 9-6, better than the anticipated bottom 4 in the West. But their record is the same as last yr at this time.
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
- Allen, Dunn better, but not stat significant yet
- Brooks matching Durant's output - not sustainable
- They started 9-2 last yr, so fall had started
Looking at players who have done well despite their team. Specifically, they have positive net points but their +/- is negative.
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
November 18, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Looking at players who have done well despite their team. Specifically, they have positive net points but their +/- is negative.
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
- Two Clippers
- Garza and Grant on teams closest to 0.500
(Eq +/- is just +/- divided by 5)
The 2021 NBA Draft Class has been pretty good. Some misses, for sure, but some long careers up and down the first round.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
November 18, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The 2021 NBA Draft Class has been pretty good. Some misses, for sure, but some long careers up and down the first round.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
The table shows the progression of total Net Pts/48 min, regardless of minutes. Progress is not a straight line, though you can see the trend.
Last night, Denver's starters were 31.2 net points better than their bench, +14.1 to -17.1, and they lost by 3 to the Bulls).
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
November 18, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Last night, Denver's starters were 31.2 net points better than their bench, +14.1 to -17.1, and they lost by 3 to the Bulls).
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
That was the best performance by starters to lose a game this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
(Chicago's win came with second-worst starters of year.)
There was speculation on-air about whether Kel'el Ware had his best career game tonight.
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 18, 2025 at 3:52 AM
There was speculation on-air about whether Kel'el Ware had his best career game tonight.
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
By net points, he did, posting +8.5 tonight. His next best was +7.3.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
OKC took two overtimes to beat IND three weeks ago. They have also beaten New Orleans, Washington, Sac twice, Charlotte, Memphis, Dallas.
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
November 17, 2025 at 6:48 PM
OKC took two overtimes to beat IND three weeks ago. They have also beaten New Orleans, Washington, Sac twice, Charlotte, Memphis, Dallas.
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
It's the weakest schedule so far, but they've managed it convincingly, which is why they're #1 in BPI.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi
Pritchard's line fascinated me. He was so good in his shooting, yet his plus/minus was terrible. His oNet pts was +9.6, his dNet bad -6.2.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
November 17, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pritchard's line fascinated me. He was so good in his shooting, yet his plus/minus was terrible. His oNet pts was +9.6, his dNet bad -6.2.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
How often does this happen? Landry Shamet the other night was close, +11.1 on O, -4.3 on D.
Brunson, Maxey, Trae did similar last year.
Some candidates for Best Clutch Player for yesterday alone, which had a lot of clutch time.
November 17, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Some candidates for Best Clutch Player for yesterday alone, which had a lot of clutch time.
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
November 13, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
November 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 10, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Russ' value starting this year is the highest it's been and about +1.4 of that is rebounding, as opposed to +0.4 last year. Haven't studied yet for teammate interaction effects at this point.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Russ' value starting this year is the highest it's been and about +1.4 of that is rebounding, as opposed to +0.4 last year. Haven't studied yet for teammate interaction effects at this point.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
November 7, 2025 at 8:57 PM
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
FWIW - We do break down how many net points players earn through rebounding. If you look at the graph at the bottom of the boxscore and flip the dropdown to Rebounds, you will see Russ' value in rebounding (+0.9 that night).
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 7, 2025 at 7:39 PM
FWIW - We do break down how many net points players earn through rebounding. If you look at the graph at the bottom of the boxscore and flip the dropdown to Rebounds, you will see Russ' value in rebounding (+0.9 that night).
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
November 6, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
November 5, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.