Hakeem Jefferson
@hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
Assistant professor of political science. I think about identity, stigma, race, and politics more than any normal person should. Lover of life. Pro-democracy.
People should dance more.
Not Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority Leader.
People should dance more.
Not Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority Leader.
Cowards gonna coward.
November 10, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Cowards gonna coward.
An excellent question.
The evidence shows pretty persuasively that many Black people don’t use these terms “liberal” or “conservative” in any context. They are terms that are simply not part of lots of people’s political or social lexicon.
The evidence shows pretty persuasively that many Black people don’t use these terms “liberal” or “conservative” in any context. They are terms that are simply not part of lots of people’s political or social lexicon.
Adding this to my required readings when I cover politics.
My question for Dr. Jefferson: Do you think that Black American culture has a different definition of conservative compared to the canonical one that influences the low correlations?
My question for Dr. Jefferson: Do you think that Black American culture has a different definition of conservative compared to the canonical one that influences the low correlations?
Excellent write-up from my friends at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social—my second home—on my article in @poqjournal.bsky.social that questions the validity of the canonical liberal–conservative measure for studying Black Americans’ political attitudes and behavior.
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
November 9, 2025 at 7:03 PM
An excellent question.
The evidence shows pretty persuasively that many Black people don’t use these terms “liberal” or “conservative” in any context. They are terms that are simply not part of lots of people’s political or social lexicon.
The evidence shows pretty persuasively that many Black people don’t use these terms “liberal” or “conservative” in any context. They are terms that are simply not part of lots of people’s political or social lexicon.
Excellent write-up from my friends at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social—my second home—on my article in @poqjournal.bsky.social that questions the validity of the canonical liberal–conservative measure for studying Black Americans’ political attitudes and behavior.
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
‘Black Conservatism’ and Familiarity with Ideological Concepts
CDDRL Research-in-Brief [4.5-minute read]
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu
November 9, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Excellent write-up from my friends at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social—my second home—on my article in @poqjournal.bsky.social that questions the validity of the canonical liberal–conservative measure for studying Black Americans’ political attitudes and behavior.
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/black-c...
Apropos of nothing, Mamdani is the antithesis of Van Jones, and that’s a very good thing.
November 5, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Apropos of nothing, Mamdani is the antithesis of Van Jones, and that’s a very good thing.
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
I have actually not seen Mamdani give a formal speech and what I’ll say is that unlike so many of his peers he is not trying to mimic anyone in his delivery. He is simply being himself and it is very effective.
I’ve been interested in political speeches for as long as I can remember. I’ve listened to nearly every inaugural and major address, and I’ve given tons of public speeches myself.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
November 5, 2025 at 4:42 AM
I have actually not seen Mamdani give a formal speech and what I’ll say is that unlike so many of his peers he is not trying to mimic anyone in his delivery. He is simply being himself and it is very effective.
I’ve been interested in political speeches for as long as I can remember. I’ve listened to nearly every inaugural and major address, and I’ve given tons of public speeches myself.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 AM
I’ve been interested in political speeches for as long as I can remember. I’ve listened to nearly every inaugural and major address, and I’ve given tons of public speeches myself.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
Zohran’s talent in this arena ranks among the best. He’s damn good. Hella good. Remarkably good.
Crazy to watch.
@hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social is on @cnn.com congratulating Dems—without mentioning @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social until pressed.
As a colleague said today, those opposing this president’s anti-democratic moves should also protest an “opposition” that refuses to be a real opposition party.
I agree.
As a colleague said today, those opposing this president’s anti-democratic moves should also protest an “opposition” that refuses to be a real opposition party.
I agree.
November 5, 2025 at 3:36 AM
@hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social is on @cnn.com congratulating Dems—without mentioning @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social until pressed.
As a colleague said today, those opposing this president’s anti-democratic moves should also protest an “opposition” that refuses to be a real opposition party.
I agree.
As a colleague said today, those opposing this president’s anti-democratic moves should also protest an “opposition” that refuses to be a real opposition party.
I agree.
It’s ok to be inspired—even, or especially, when shit’s this crazy out there. Let me be clear: I’m not obsessed with optimism, nor do I think it always works out.
But we should be wary of those who tell us to rid ourselves of hope.
The opposite of hope for the enslaved is enslavement, after all.
But we should be wary of those who tell us to rid ourselves of hope.
The opposite of hope for the enslaved is enslavement, after all.
November 5, 2025 at 2:32 AM
It’s ok to be inspired—even, or especially, when shit’s this crazy out there. Let me be clear: I’m not obsessed with optimism, nor do I think it always works out.
But we should be wary of those who tell us to rid ourselves of hope.
The opposite of hope for the enslaved is enslavement, after all.
But we should be wary of those who tell us to rid ourselves of hope.
The opposite of hope for the enslaved is enslavement, after all.
Tomorrow is Democracy Day at Stanford.
If folks are around campus tomorrow, I’ll be on a panel with colleagues from 3-415 pm at Meyer Green:
“Democracy Under Threat at Home and Abroad”
Join us if you’re around! Should be a nice day out!
If folks are around campus tomorrow, I’ll be on a panel with colleagues from 3-415 pm at Meyer Green:
“Democracy Under Threat at Home and Abroad”
Join us if you’re around! Should be a nice day out!
November 3, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Tomorrow is Democracy Day at Stanford.
If folks are around campus tomorrow, I’ll be on a panel with colleagues from 3-415 pm at Meyer Green:
“Democracy Under Threat at Home and Abroad”
Join us if you’re around! Should be a nice day out!
If folks are around campus tomorrow, I’ll be on a panel with colleagues from 3-415 pm at Meyer Green:
“Democracy Under Threat at Home and Abroad”
Join us if you’re around! Should be a nice day out!
We love the American National Election Studies (@electionstudies.bsky.social). This is going to be such an incredible resource for so many scholars and researchers.
Can’t wait to check it out, and grateful for this amazing public good that colleagues at Michigan and Stanford help produce! 🙏🏾
Can’t wait to check it out, and grateful for this amazing public good that colleagues at Michigan and Stanford help produce! 🙏🏾
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 2, 2025 at 3:17 AM
We love the American National Election Studies (@electionstudies.bsky.social). This is going to be such an incredible resource for so many scholars and researchers.
Can’t wait to check it out, and grateful for this amazing public good that colleagues at Michigan and Stanford help produce! 🙏🏾
Can’t wait to check it out, and grateful for this amazing public good that colleagues at Michigan and Stanford help produce! 🙏🏾
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
Cuomo is proving to the world that he doesn’t deserve to be a New York City dog catcher. I hope Mamdani mops the floor with his xenophobic, power-hungry ass in this election—and I’m not even a New Yorker. I just can’t stand bigots. And if it’s all strategic bigotry, that’s perhaps even worse. Shame!
So here's Andrew Cuomo reacting to Maria Bartiromo wondering if Mamdani will "change the look of New York" and have Muslim women "completely covered up," telling her that Mamdani "doesn't understand New York culture" because he has "dual citizenship" and "he's a citizen of Uganda."
October 30, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Cuomo is proving to the world that he doesn’t deserve to be a New York City dog catcher. I hope Mamdani mops the floor with his xenophobic, power-hungry ass in this election—and I’m not even a New Yorker. I just can’t stand bigots. And if it’s all strategic bigotry, that’s perhaps even worse. Shame!
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
October 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
"Their polling addiction ignores more complex political instruments telling them that the working class isn’t just white men and that centrism isn’t enough to bring white voters back into the fold."
A Nazi Tattoo Exposes Democrats’ Greatest Weakness www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
October 29, 2025 at 10:26 AM
"Their polling addiction ignores more complex political instruments telling them that the working class isn’t just white men and that centrism isn’t enough to bring white voters back into the fold."
A Nazi Tattoo Exposes Democrats’ Greatest Weakness www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
October 29, 2025 at 10:22 AM
A Nazi Tattoo Exposes Democrats’ Greatest Weakness www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
@tressiemcphd.bsky.social is unmatched. Read her latest piece—and everything else she writes.
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
Avoiding topics will not prevent Republicans from saying the top Democratic priority is getting organic locally sourced vegan food for LGBTQ immigrant detainees.
Avoidance is just a failure to do politics.
Avoidance is just a failure to do politics.
democrats have been pivoting to the economy literally my entire life, and yet somehow centrist pundits are still convinced we're the party of identity politics. maybe the problem isn't policy. maybe you can't run from the culture war. maybe you just have to win it!
October 28, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Avoiding topics will not prevent Republicans from saying the top Democratic priority is getting organic locally sourced vegan food for LGBTQ immigrant detainees.
Avoidance is just a failure to do politics.
Avoidance is just a failure to do politics.
If I were a betting man—like Nate is—I’d put my money on Grumbach and Bonica every time. Bonica is famously a very modest guy, so he won’t say this, but it’s wild he still has to explain basic stats to people who think they’re his equals and then they still speak w/ such certainty. Just crazy stuff.
If you had told me in college that Nate Silver, one of Time’s 100 Most Influential People of 2009, would eventually be reduced to cursing me and a coauthor out on a podcast and writing a whole angry article about us, I woulda been like damn, poor guy, sending love and support
October 27, 2025 at 12:29 AM
If I were a betting man—like Nate is—I’d put my money on Grumbach and Bonica every time. Bonica is famously a very modest guy, so he won’t say this, but it’s wild he still has to explain basic stats to people who think they’re his equals and then they still speak w/ such certainty. Just crazy stuff.
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
Sad to see anti-intellectualism dominate venues targeting educated readers…
One tactic these data guys use online is to dismiss academic work they don’t like by calling it “overly complex” or “disconnected from reality.” I call this anti-rigor propaganda. It’s a move to sour people on serious scholarship when you don’t have better evidence.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
October 26, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Sad to see anti-intellectualism dominate venues targeting educated readers…
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
“The Democratic Party is building its comeback strategy on this premise. If the premise is wrong, the strategy will fail—and they can’t afford to get this wrong.
The stakes are too high for wishful thinking. The data tells a different story than their editorial suggests, and Dems need to hear it.”
The stakes are too high for wishful thinking. The data tells a different story than their editorial suggests, and Dems need to hear it.”
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 11:32 PM
“The Democratic Party is building its comeback strategy on this premise. If the premise is wrong, the strategy will fail—and they can’t afford to get this wrong.
The stakes are too high for wishful thinking. The data tells a different story than their editorial suggests, and Dems need to hear it.”
The stakes are too high for wishful thinking. The data tells a different story than their editorial suggests, and Dems need to hear it.”
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts.
This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
One tactic these data guys use online is to dismiss academic work they don’t like by calling it “overly complex” or “disconnected from reality.” I call this anti-rigor propaganda. It’s a move to sour people on serious scholarship when you don’t have better evidence.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
October 24, 2025 at 3:01 PM
One tactic these data guys use online is to dismiss academic work they don’t like by calling it “overly complex” or “disconnected from reality.” I call this anti-rigor propaganda. It’s a move to sour people on serious scholarship when you don’t have better evidence.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
Adam addresses it in the piece.
NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is.
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:22 PM
NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is.
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
The Republican Party’s efforts to entrench its power despite unpopular policies expose how deeply its strength depends on undemocratic institutions and on a brazen disregard for the very norms that sustain democracy itself.
Breaking News: North Carolina state senators approved a new congressional map that could give Republicans an extra seat. The state House is expected to pass it.
North Carolina State Senate Approves New Congressional Map in Effort to Add a Seat
The Trump administration has pushed Republican leaders to redraw House district maps before the midterm elections next year.
nyti.ms
October 21, 2025 at 3:58 PM
The Republican Party’s efforts to entrench its power despite unpopular policies expose how deeply its strength depends on undemocratic institutions and on a brazen disregard for the very norms that sustain democracy itself.
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
"Winning the next election will be abt whether Ds will offer a vision that matches the scale of voters’ frustration with a system they increasingly see as corrupt and unresponsive. This requires a vision that does more than win on the margins with a strategy that is not clearly achieving even that."
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 12:32 AM
"Winning the next election will be abt whether Ds will offer a vision that matches the scale of voters’ frustration with a system they increasingly see as corrupt and unresponsive. This requires a vision that does more than win on the margins with a strategy that is not clearly achieving even that."
Reposted by Hakeem Jefferson
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.