Giles Wilkes
@gilesyb.bsky.social
Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.
The more I think about the two child limit the crosser I get, and the more pleased that they ditched it. No one decides their family size this way.* Making ordinary people think that this is how other people act is incredibly divisive.
*Otherwise we could easily solve the fertility crisis, right?
*Otherwise we could easily solve the fertility crisis, right?
November 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The more I think about the two child limit the crosser I get, and the more pleased that they ditched it. No one decides their family size this way.* Making ordinary people think that this is how other people act is incredibly divisive.
*Otherwise we could easily solve the fertility crisis, right?
*Otherwise we could easily solve the fertility crisis, right?
Something disturbing about the OBR's projections for UK Growth under Labour: there is not the boom in future business investment they need. This is surely the top priority to address, when those Austerian Coalition types actually did better.
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
November 27, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Something disturbing about the OBR's projections for UK Growth under Labour: there is not the boom in future business investment they need. This is surely the top priority to address, when those Austerian Coalition types actually did better.
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
the fall in alcohol duties (caused by alternatives and higher prices) is quite stark
November 26, 2025 at 3:29 PM
the fall in alcohol duties (caused by alternatives and higher prices) is quite stark
while I am being annoyed, it is very annoying when chancellors shift from changes in the forecast to changes through time. i.e. "The OBR confirms that inflation is falling", whereas the oppo can say "The OBR confirms that Inflation is now going to be higher than hitherto forecast". Both true
November 26, 2025 at 1:39 PM
while I am being annoyed, it is very annoying when chancellors shift from changes in the forecast to changes through time. i.e. "The OBR confirms that inflation is falling", whereas the oppo can say "The OBR confirms that Inflation is now going to be higher than hitherto forecast". Both true
you don't have to squint very hard to see the effect of that Truss interlude on this country. If she was responsible for half of that gap with the G7 average, that turns into tens of billions of debt interest. It could be ... 0.8% of GDP less? £24bn less?
November 26, 2025 at 1:35 PM
you don't have to squint very hard to see the effect of that Truss interlude on this country. If she was responsible for half of that gap with the G7 average, that turns into tens of billions of debt interest. It could be ... 0.8% of GDP less? £24bn less?
... and this is the Labour response - we are getting borrowing down, fixing your mess, etc
November 26, 2025 at 1:24 PM
... and this is the Labour response - we are getting borrowing down, fixing your mess, etc
this will be the Tory attack line: higher taxes, higher spending, same old Labour ....
November 26, 2025 at 1:24 PM
this will be the Tory attack line: higher taxes, higher spending, same old Labour ....
The origin of the word Tory is an insult, and boy! is Rachel Reeves deploying it that way
November 26, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The origin of the word Tory is an insult, and boy! is Rachel Reeves deploying it that way
this is *exactly* the information I needed. - what the exogenous changes have done to the fiscal situation, BEFORE the measures. The OBR is very good.
November 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM
this is *exactly* the information I needed. - what the exogenous changes have done to the fiscal situation, BEFORE the measures. The OBR is very good.
The OBR puts it very clearly. They really are very good, you know.
November 26, 2025 at 1:07 PM
The OBR puts it very clearly. They really are very good, you know.
the flipside to this higher nominal growth is obviously higher inflation.
This is a stealthy way of taking money from incomes, and helping keep the government solvent. I am in favour ... but it is what it is
This is a stealthy way of taking money from incomes, and helping keep the government solvent. I am in favour ... but it is what it is
November 26, 2025 at 1:06 PM
the flipside to this higher nominal growth is obviously higher inflation.
This is a stealthy way of taking money from incomes, and helping keep the government solvent. I am in favour ... but it is what it is
This is a stealthy way of taking money from incomes, and helping keep the government solvent. I am in favour ... but it is what it is
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Massive rise in incapacity benefits forecast
25% higher in four years, during a time of recovering economic growth? It is hard to see how this will not be an attack line from the opposition.
25% higher in four years, during a time of recovering economic growth? It is hard to see how this will not be an attack line from the opposition.
November 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Massive rise in incapacity benefits forecast
25% higher in four years, during a time of recovering economic growth? It is hard to see how this will not be an attack line from the opposition.
25% higher in four years, during a time of recovering economic growth? It is hard to see how this will not be an attack line from the opposition.
the government's attitude to retail, hospitality and other low productivity industries is a bit confusing. Higher NMW and NICs etc hurt them in their labour costs, but a property tax subsidy. Is it coherent?
November 26, 2025 at 12:54 PM
the government's attitude to retail, hospitality and other low productivity industries is a bit confusing. Higher NMW and NICs etc hurt them in their labour costs, but a property tax subsidy. Is it coherent?
The FT has hit on the biggest point in the OBR forecast.
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
November 26, 2025 at 12:52 PM
The FT has hit on the biggest point in the OBR forecast.
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
there is a highly irritating shift of Scottish Government current spending from AME to RDEL which totally *****rs up historical comparisons
November 26, 2025 at 12:41 PM
there is a highly irritating shift of Scottish Government current spending from AME to RDEL which totally *****rs up historical comparisons
"having changed my mind about the OBR, my internship there has begun smoothly"
November 26, 2025 at 12:28 PM
"having changed my mind about the OBR, my internship there has begun smoothly"
A reminder ahead of a Budget overshadowed by fears of the market reaction that things have basically gone sideways for most of the year.. . Unless you mean equities, in which case they've gone rather well
November 26, 2025 at 6:42 AM
A reminder ahead of a Budget overshadowed by fears of the market reaction that things have basically gone sideways for most of the year.. . Unless you mean equities, in which case they've gone rather well
Big enough to be bothered about
November 19, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Big enough to be bothered about
From @robarmstrong.bsky.social 's Unhedged newsletter, there are places to go in collapsing bubble, history suggests
November 17, 2025 at 10:28 AM
From @robarmstrong.bsky.social 's Unhedged newsletter, there are places to go in collapsing bubble, history suggests
What do you mean, this is very serious
November 15, 2025 at 1:41 PM
What do you mean, this is very serious
"Even with Britain’s high overall tax take, most people’s labour income is taxed lightly by international standards...Britain’s [labour tax] wedge in 2024 for a single average earner without children was 29.4%, the lowest in the G7"
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 15, 2025 at 12:42 PM
"Even with Britain’s high overall tax take, most people’s labour income is taxed lightly by international standards...Britain’s [labour tax] wedge in 2024 for a single average earner without children was 29.4%, the lowest in the G7"
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Skyla was banned from swimming while her treatment was ongoing. You will have noticed the Thames becoming clogged with sticks. Thank goodness she's back
November 14, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Skyla was banned from swimming while her treatment was ongoing. You will have noticed the Thames becoming clogged with sticks. Thank goodness she's back
In 2015 I wrote that Trump, Grillo, Corbyn and UKIP were the revolt of people who hate being told it is more complicated than that. Tim's lovely piece discusses populism and the aversion to the cognitive effort needed to dismiss convincing-sounding bullsh1t. Free link above 2/
November 13, 2025 at 6:45 AM
In 2015 I wrote that Trump, Grillo, Corbyn and UKIP were the revolt of people who hate being told it is more complicated than that. Tim's lovely piece discusses populism and the aversion to the cognitive effort needed to dismiss convincing-sounding bullsh1t. Free link above 2/