Gerard DiPippo
@gdp1985.bsky.social
RAND China Research Center. Former Senior Geo-Economics Analyst at Bloomberg, CSIS Economics Program, DNIO for Economic Issues at NIC, and CIA. All views my own.
If you want more hot takes on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, here you go! I joined my RAND Europe colleague @fraghi.bsky.social on her "Geoeconomic Competition" podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/3zFd...
October 31, 2025 at 6:16 PM
If you want more hot takes on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, here you go! I joined my RAND Europe colleague @fraghi.bsky.social on her "Geoeconomic Competition" podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/3zFd...
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
October 12, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
Reposted by Gerard DiPippo
Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade
China goes to (trade) war
Eighty-two percent of China’s lost exports to the US found alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, a diversion that likely benefited from Beijing’s policy support.
www.hinrichfoundation.com
September 23, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
September 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts!
www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War | China Leadership Monitor
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversi...
www.prcleader.org
September 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts!
www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need.
@relevantorgans.bsky.social
@relevantorgans.bsky.social
August 1, 2025 at 8:10 PM
China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need.
@relevantorgans.bsky.social
@relevantorgans.bsky.social
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
July 20, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
June 12, 2025 at 11:27 AM
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
Reposted by Gerard DiPippo
I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe.
With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed!
www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed!
www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
How Resilient Is China’s Economy?
Have decades of economic planning rendered China’s economy more resilient to external shocks? RAND Europe aims to address this critical question by convening leading experts who will delve into the st...
www.rand.org
May 21, 2025 at 11:05 AM
I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe.
With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed!
www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed!
www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
April 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
April 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
March 30, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
March 26, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
March 16, 2025 at 4:09 PM
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs:
- 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports
- 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List
- 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected)
- No product-specific export controls
Less than proportional response.
- 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports
- 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List
- 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected)
- No product-specific export controls
Less than proportional response.
March 4, 2025 at 12:21 PM
China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs:
- 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports
- 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List
- 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected)
- No product-specific export controls
Less than proportional response.
- 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports
- 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List
- 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected)
- No product-specific export controls
Less than proportional response.
Reposted by Gerard DiPippo
This is a strong possibility.
An insane theory I am starting to believe more every day is that they are just going to keep repeating the “threaten 25% Canada & Mexico tariffs alongside a 10% hike on China tariffs, back off the Canada & Mexico tariffs while implementing the China tariffs” every month until China tariffs are 60%
I think they'll settle on "do tariffs on China" for what it's worth.
March 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM
This is a strong possibility.
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
February 27, 2025 at 3:45 PM
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!
One week to go before the application deadline of this Friday, February 28! Please circulate this call widely to relevant potential applicants, to help us benefit from as strong and diverse an applicant pool as possible.
We are thrilled to issue the call for applications (global.upenn.edu/future-of-us...) for our third fellowship cohort, made possible by generous support from @carnegiecorp.bsky.social and the Henry Luce Foundation. Applications are due February 28.
February 24, 2025 at 10:32 PM
China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
February 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
Two narratives about China's economy:
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
February 20, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Two narratives about China's economy:
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
When in Taipei...
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
February 17, 2025 at 4:17 AM
When in Taipei...
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...
Four stories of Chinese youth breaking through high unemployment
Youth unemployment has emerged as a pressing social issue in China.
open.substack.com
February 6, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...
There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔
February 2, 2025 at 2:50 PM
There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
January 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
Reposted by Gerard DiPippo
Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization
(replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
(replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
I'll begin by saying that I haven't read the report in full, but based on the screenshot that you shared, I would say that I have some questions.
It seems to me that this argument disregards the fact that for the yuan to reach its full international potential as a payment currency... 1/
It seems to me that this argument disregards the fact that for the yuan to reach its full international potential as a payment currency... 1/
January 19, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization
(replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
(replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)