Julia M. Rohrer
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dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Julia M. Rohrer
@dingdingpeng.the100.ci
10K followers 2.5K following 8.8K posts
Personality psych & causal inference @UniLeipzig. I like all things science, beer, & puns. Even better when combined! Part of http://the100.ci, http://openscience-leipzig.org
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dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Aug 25
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models). Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Finally got some letters for the kids room and let's just say they went deep down into the animal alphabet mines for the V and the I.
Animal letters spelling out DAVID, D = Dalmation A = Alligator V kinda looks like a lama and I is an animal with striped horns.
November 9, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
joesimons.bsky.social
The sense of disappointment in their url ("Miami? Oh") is also giving my prior favourite a run for it's money www.fu-berlin.de
Freie Universität Berlin
Die Freie Universität Berlin gehört seit 2007 zu den Exzellenzuniversitäten in Deutschland – sie ist führend in Wissenschaft und Lehre, in der Region vielfältig vernetzt und international aufgestellt....
www.fu-berlin.de
November 9, 2025 at 7:39 AM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
This one surely has something on offer for every one: In this cross-sectional mediation analysis, the "effects" of soft drink consumption on depression were "mediated" by abundance of Eggerthela in the gut microbiome.

This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
Soft Drink Consumption and Depression Mediated by Gut Microbiome Alterations
This cohort study examines the association between soft drink consumption and major depressive disorder diagnosis and severity and whether this association is mediated by changes in the gut microbiota...
jamanetwork.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
joesimons.bsky.social
Miami University, Oxford, Ohio remains one of the most confusing addresses I've ever read
November 8, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
conjugateprior.org
That is why this guy is always on my shelf. Strong recommend.
"Latent variable models and factor analysis. A unified approach" by Bartholomew, Knott and Moustaki
November 8, 2025 at 1:05 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
I feel like psychometrics is uniquely bad at naming things. Parallel, congeneric, tau-equivalent, essentially tau-equivalent measures? Configural, metric, scalar, residual invariance? Item difficulty defined so that the higher the difficulty, the easier the item???
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
this is what they took from us
discontinuedfoods.bsky.social Discontinued Foods! @discontinuedfoods.bsky.social · 3d
Nabisco Rice Cream Flakes (1967-1968): Crispy rice cereal flakes coated in real freeze-dried vanilla ice cream, which was then meant to taste like eating vanilla ice cream in a sugar cone. Test marketed across New York, it was discontinued when the ice cream supplier in Oregon went out of business
A cereal bowl full of rice flakes, from which a sugar cone emerges, also filled with flakes. From the right, a white pitcher pours milk into the bowl. The copy reads "crunchy as a cone, dipped in real ice cream"
November 7, 2025 at 2:17 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
If I had a nickel for every time someone said, “Wow, your setup looks like you’re about to record a podcast,” I wouldn’t be rich, but I’d probably have made more than if I actually were recording a podcast.
November 7, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
thoughtfulnz.bsky.social
In the spirit of "there's an R package for that" github.com/ryantimpe/rs...
GitHub - ryantimpe/rstereogram: Generate autostereogram 3D images
Generate autostereogram 3D images. Contribute to ryantimpe/rstereogram development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:38 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Kinda amazing how kids go from requiring constant attention to spending an hour quietly sticking together random trash with washi tape without any parental involvement.
November 5, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
socarxiv.bsky.social
Congratulations to us, and thank you, @kohli-sociology.bsky.social!
Flowers and the Kohli Award for sociology infrastructure
November 5, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
alxndrmlk.bsky.social
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...

For the 50th-percentile male.

Well, that's actually not 100% correct.

According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...

1/

#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
November 5, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
diw.de
Die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter nur eine Frage der Zeit? Daten des World Value Survey zeigen: Die Modernisierung der Rollenbilder könnte ins Stocken geraten – gerade jüngere Menschen neigen in manchen Ländern wieder zu traditionelleren Einstellungen. 🧵(1/5) www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c....
Infografik zum DIW Wochenbericht 45/2025: Einstellungen zur Rolle von Frauen werden in Deutschland moderner – der Trend wird bei den jüngeren Befragten allerdings schwächer
November 5, 2025 at 9:05 AM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Alternative suggestion
Cover of the first magic eye book A new way of looking at the world 3D illusions by magic eye inc
November 5, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
conjugateprior.org
They got Peter
November 5, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
scientificdiscovery.dev
The print edition of Works in Progress is now available in:

• Canada 🇨🇦
• Australia 🇦🇺
• the European Union 🇪🇺 🇮🇪 🇩🇪

Subscribe today for 6 beautiful issues a year. The first edition ships in 2 weeks! 🥳
worksinprogress.co/print/
Print - Works in Progress Magazine
worksinprogress.co
November 4, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
sophieehill.bsky.social
No-one has covered themselves in glory here.

The authors made errors that shouldn't even be possible.
The peer reviewers didn't spot the red flags.
The journal wrote a clickbait press release.
The journalists lapped it up.
The editors failed to swiftly retract the paper.
November 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
jgeller1phd.bsky.social
Waiting for a meeting and giving this a read: osf.io/preprints/ps... by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social. What a clear and well-written piece of work!
OSF
osf.io
November 4, 2025 at 4:55 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
MOST IMPORTANTLY, HOW CAN WE CHANGE OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH GRAVITY FOR THE BETTER
statsepi.bsky.social Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 6d
lmao I did not want to know about this (cc @wiringthebrain.bsky.social)
Why do people with depression literally feel like they’re being dragged to the ground? Why do you get that butterfly feeling in your stomach when going down a roller coaster? Why do you get it when you are “falling” in love? What can we learn from astronauts with heartburn and swollen faces to inform our lives back on Earth? How do gut microbes help us fight gravity? And most importantly, how can we change our relationship with gravity for the better? To get there, Spiegel proposes the concept of “gravity resilience,” a fresh perspective on traditional interventions like weight loss, exercise, diet, and meditation. Rather than just lifestyle choices, these treatments share something profound and unexpected in common: they all enhance our resilience to gravity.
November 4, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
georghenning.bsky.social
Does anyone know an open, large, German dataset based on adults between ~, age 20-40, including the CES-D scale for Depression?
November 4, 2025 at 3:17 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Lifehack! Annoyed by reviewers who ask you to change details of your model specification? Use marginaleffects so that when revising your code, you just need to switch out the model. Target quantities can be calculated the same way as before 🥰
November 4, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
cameronpat.bsky.social
happy 11th anniversary to this email sent to all staff at the School of Mathematics and Statistics
Dear All, I am delighted to report to you the first results of an experiment that is being conducted in the tea room of this Department. On 29 August, an Oslo Stainless Steel Cutlery Set (48 Pieces: 12 Knifes, 12 Forks, 12 Tea Spoons, 12 Dinner Spoons) was placed in a drawer in the Departmental tea room. A poster asking not to remove the cutlery from the tea room was attached in a visible location. The original research plan was to monitor (in real time) the disappearance of the cutlery from the tea room and then fit a point/counting process model to the observed data. However, as the research project failed to attract any major grants (and so hiring a research assistant to do the work was impossible), it was decided to conduct opportunistic discrete monitoring only. Here is the first result: sixty days in the experiment, the disappearance rates stand as follows: Knives: 8.3% Forks: 100% Tea spoons: 58.3% Dinner spoons: 41.7% Possible conclusions include, but are not limited to, the following: the people who removed the missing cutlery don’t understand written English; they don’t see forks as a special case of cutlery; forks are needed to do some kind of mathematics; the knives from the set are no good; small spoons are slightly more attractive than the large ones; things left in our tea room tend to disappear even if they are not edible; further research is needed to fully understand the phenomenon. Best, kostya borovkov
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 AM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Having some questions about the academic credentials of this bear who breaks into the home of a family on Christmas Eve, eats their Christmas dinner and steals their Christmas tree.
Picture of the cover of a German children’s book titled “Dr Brumms totally crazy Christmas”
November 4, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Reposted by Julia M. Rohrer
brendannyhan.bsky.social
Outstanding. This entry is a journey.
November 3, 2025 at 1:01 PM
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Slowly listening my way through this episode, which is great overall, except there is a major error in it which I think requires a correction as well as reconsideration of their fact checking process:
scientificdiscovery.dev Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 12d
This year Demis Hassabis predicted AI could cure all disease in a decade.

But other scientists like Claus Wilke & Derek Lowe say biology is far more complex, or progress will be limited by clinical trials & economics.

In a new 4hr podcast episode of *Hard Drugs*, we answer: Will AI solve medicine?
Will AI solve medicine?
spotify.link
November 3, 2025 at 5:33 AM