David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
Deputy Director, New America Future Security program
December 5, 2025 at 12:11 AM
I don’t think this is so much causal (or the main causal function) but do think the drug boat strikes do put some of the arguments in @ncrenic.bsky.social’s book in high relief and merit thinking on the issues raised there.
December 4, 2025 at 6:15 PM
I don’t think this is so much causal (or the main causal function) but do think the drug boat strikes do put some of the arguments in @ncrenic.bsky.social’s book in high relief and merit thinking on the issues raised there.
First, ask yourself why this take appeals to Thiessen.
Second, is the Post doing any fact checking of these. Awlaki was never the leader of AQAP. Bin Laden explicitly nixed that.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Second, is the Post doing any fact checking of these. Awlaki was never the leader of AQAP. Bin Laden explicitly nixed that.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
December 4, 2025 at 5:42 PM
First, ask yourself why this take appeals to Thiessen.
Second, is the Post doing any fact checking of these. Awlaki was never the leader of AQAP. Bin Laden explicitly nixed that.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Second, is the Post doing any fact checking of these. Awlaki was never the leader of AQAP. Bin Laden explicitly nixed that.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Couple Gorka tweets that suggest to me there’s a real tension produced by the reported fact pattern of the second strike and the legal justification for strikes overall that as I understand it relies on the boats being the targets not people.
December 2, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Couple Gorka tweets that suggest to me there’s a real tension produced by the reported fact pattern of the second strike and the legal justification for strikes overall that as I understand it relies on the boats being the targets not people.
Twice. Once when Ryan is briefing his analysis. Then again by the Russians discussing why they placed the final spy on the sub.
November 29, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Twice. Once when Ryan is briefing his analysis. Then again by the Russians discussing why they placed the final spy on the sub.
I also think it’s important now that officials are saying ambush and targeted to emphasize critiques of speculation should not have filtered into idea that street crime escalation in this area is as likely as targeted violence.
Things can always change but be wary.
Things can always change but be wary.
November 26, 2025 at 10:16 PM
I also think it’s important now that officials are saying ambush and targeted to emphasize critiques of speculation should not have filtered into idea that street crime escalation in this area is as likely as targeted violence.
Things can always change but be wary.
Things can always change but be wary.
November 25, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Really notable that a graphic like this is possible using gov sourcing for drug boat strikes but the U.S. fights tooth and nail to not release such info about strikes elsewhere.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Really notable that a graphic like this is possible using gov sourcing for drug boat strikes but the U.S. fights tooth and nail to not release such info about strikes elsewhere.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
The idea that the U.S. was just defending others’ homelands is deeply objectionable.
Those wars were/are often driven by regional security interests but those are tied to American interests.
Meanwhile, others have little to no input into our wars and have been subject to sudden withdrawals.
Those wars were/are often driven by regional security interests but those are tied to American interests.
Meanwhile, others have little to no input into our wars and have been subject to sudden withdrawals.
October 29, 2025 at 1:15 AM
The idea that the U.S. was just defending others’ homelands is deeply objectionable.
Those wars were/are often driven by regional security interests but those are tied to American interests.
Meanwhile, others have little to no input into our wars and have been subject to sudden withdrawals.
Those wars were/are often driven by regional security interests but those are tied to American interests.
Meanwhile, others have little to no input into our wars and have been subject to sudden withdrawals.
Don’t confuse the no crime “in Ecuadorean territory” line with the idea that the vessel - seemingly this semisubmersible was just some fishing boat.
In my view it actually undermines the core point that drug trafficking is not cause for being a military target and is not a capital offense.
In my view it actually undermines the core point that drug trafficking is not cause for being a military target and is not a capital offense.
October 21, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Don’t confuse the no crime “in Ecuadorean territory” line with the idea that the vessel - seemingly this semisubmersible was just some fishing boat.
In my view it actually undermines the core point that drug trafficking is not cause for being a military target and is not a capital offense.
In my view it actually undermines the core point that drug trafficking is not cause for being a military target and is not a capital offense.
This seems silly.
Wonder if there was an event in 2023 globally that might explain high media coverage of terrorism and pose issues around assuming some clear connection between what should be covered and deaths in the U.S.
Wonder if that might be further illustrated when a keyword is “hostage”
Wonder if there was an event in 2023 globally that might explain high media coverage of terrorism and pose issues around assuming some clear connection between what should be covered and deaths in the U.S.
Wonder if that might be further illustrated when a keyword is “hostage”
October 12, 2025 at 5:10 PM
This seems silly.
Wonder if there was an event in 2023 globally that might explain high media coverage of terrorism and pose issues around assuming some clear connection between what should be covered and deaths in the U.S.
Wonder if that might be further illustrated when a keyword is “hostage”
Wonder if there was an event in 2023 globally that might explain high media coverage of terrorism and pose issues around assuming some clear connection between what should be covered and deaths in the U.S.
Wonder if that might be further illustrated when a keyword is “hostage”
The bonkers legal backfilling apparently did not name specific groups?
Reminds a bit of the early non-naming of AQ/Bin Laden/AQ in the post-9/11 response.
But crazier. At least the AUMF tied authority to a specific, singular event.
www.cnn.com/2025/10/02/p...
Reminds a bit of the early non-naming of AQ/Bin Laden/AQ in the post-9/11 response.
But crazier. At least the AUMF tied authority to a specific, singular event.
www.cnn.com/2025/10/02/p...
October 2, 2025 at 7:34 PM
The bonkers legal backfilling apparently did not name specific groups?
Reminds a bit of the early non-naming of AQ/Bin Laden/AQ in the post-9/11 response.
But crazier. At least the AUMF tied authority to a specific, singular event.
www.cnn.com/2025/10/02/p...
Reminds a bit of the early non-naming of AQ/Bin Laden/AQ in the post-9/11 response.
But crazier. At least the AUMF tied authority to a specific, singular event.
www.cnn.com/2025/10/02/p...
Don’t want to be petty but I take umbrage at this.
A) The clarification of AFRICOM’s 2025 numbers when it wasn’t clear was specifically my work
B) For all the media lack of attention, there are reporters covering this.
C) Saying perhaps the only journalist pegs you as part of the inattention
A) The clarification of AFRICOM’s 2025 numbers when it wasn’t clear was specifically my work
B) For all the media lack of attention, there are reporters covering this.
C) Saying perhaps the only journalist pegs you as part of the inattention
September 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Don’t want to be petty but I take umbrage at this.
A) The clarification of AFRICOM’s 2025 numbers when it wasn’t clear was specifically my work
B) For all the media lack of attention, there are reporters covering this.
C) Saying perhaps the only journalist pegs you as part of the inattention
A) The clarification of AFRICOM’s 2025 numbers when it wasn’t clear was specifically my work
B) For all the media lack of attention, there are reporters covering this.
C) Saying perhaps the only journalist pegs you as part of the inattention
Looking forward to reading this which just landed in my Kindle.
September 3, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Looking forward to reading this which just landed in my Kindle.
Hard to parse this as it’s driven in large part by battles/operations (and thus not fully independent from US strikes) but notable for analyses that early Biden years when Somalia strikes were low were also a low point in Islamist-related fatalities.
africacenter.org/spotlight/en...
africacenter.org/spotlight/en...
August 5, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Hard to parse this as it’s driven in large part by battles/operations (and thus not fully independent from US strikes) but notable for analyses that early Biden years when Somalia strikes were low were also a low point in Islamist-related fatalities.
africacenter.org/spotlight/en...
africacenter.org/spotlight/en...
This is both a slight undercount (reliance on AFRICOM website issues) and links to a WH statement that misdated a strike without comment on it.
www.axios.com/2025/06/11/u...
www.axios.com/2025/06/11/u...
June 11, 2025 at 7:48 PM
This is both a slight undercount (reliance on AFRICOM website issues) and links to a WH statement that misdated a strike without comment on it.
www.axios.com/2025/06/11/u...
www.axios.com/2025/06/11/u...
Noting this prediction/assessment in there on African affiliates being locally focused but some using as a springboard to advance plots within a year.
May 20, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Noting this prediction/assessment in there on African affiliates being locally focused but some using as a springboard to advance plots within a year.
This is not the same as a discussion of endlessness but it gets at the core role of objectives/achievability in defining it and how that’s a key point of clash when people debate the endlessness q.
This from Jack Keane’s SMU oral history interview on the surge. www.smu.edu/-/media/site...
This from Jack Keane’s SMU oral history interview on the surge. www.smu.edu/-/media/site...
May 19, 2025 at 6:09 PM
This is not the same as a discussion of endlessness but it gets at the core role of objectives/achievability in defining it and how that’s a key point of clash when people debate the endlessness q.
This from Jack Keane’s SMU oral history interview on the surge. www.smu.edu/-/media/site...
This from Jack Keane’s SMU oral history interview on the surge. www.smu.edu/-/media/site...
The significant US strike in Iraq against ISIS in March was tied to an escalation in counter-ISIS operations dating back to August 2024 per OIR IG report.
A reminder even amid growing ev of Trump’s expansion of some strikes, there are often major continuities.
A reminder even amid growing ev of Trump’s expansion of some strikes, there are often major continuities.
May 7, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The significant US strike in Iraq against ISIS in March was tied to an escalation in counter-ISIS operations dating back to August 2024 per OIR IG report.
A reminder even amid growing ev of Trump’s expansion of some strikes, there are often major continuities.
A reminder even amid growing ev of Trump’s expansion of some strikes, there are often major continuities.
I am not sure if this is bluster or not but this seems like a potentially big expansion of US targeting and what defines an High Value Target from Gorka.
When the U.S. killed Awlaki it made clear it was for recruitment/attack direction not online commentary.
www.breitbart.com/politics/202...
When the U.S. killed Awlaki it made clear it was for recruitment/attack direction not online commentary.
www.breitbart.com/politics/202...
May 6, 2025 at 7:47 PM
I am not sure if this is bluster or not but this seems like a potentially big expansion of US targeting and what defines an High Value Target from Gorka.
When the U.S. killed Awlaki it made clear it was for recruitment/attack direction not online commentary.
www.breitbart.com/politics/202...
When the U.S. killed Awlaki it made clear it was for recruitment/attack direction not online commentary.
www.breitbart.com/politics/202...
I get this is an ironic dig at Signalgate - and that’s what the link is.
But maybe ledes of stories should not downplay the continued issues with and substantial decline in transparency over strikes / equate Hegseth’s bad opsec with the government’s approach to info about strikes for an ironic jab
But maybe ledes of stories should not downplay the continued issues with and substantial decline in transparency over strikes / equate Hegseth’s bad opsec with the government’s approach to info about strikes for an ironic jab
May 2, 2025 at 8:16 PM
I get this is an ironic dig at Signalgate - and that’s what the link is.
But maybe ledes of stories should not downplay the continued issues with and substantial decline in transparency over strikes / equate Hegseth’s bad opsec with the government’s approach to info about strikes for an ironic jab
But maybe ledes of stories should not downplay the continued issues with and substantial decline in transparency over strikes / equate Hegseth’s bad opsec with the government’s approach to info about strikes for an ironic jab
Somalia strikes. Really sharp increase is very apparent with the latest set of press releases.
(This is reported not just declared - but tracks pretty closely for recent years)
(This is reported not just declared - but tracks pretty closely for recent years)
April 30, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Somalia strikes. Really sharp increase is very apparent with the latest set of press releases.
(This is reported not just declared - but tracks pretty closely for recent years)
(This is reported not just declared - but tracks pretty closely for recent years)
What harm could explicitly devaluing institutional memory possibly do?
This is tagged as Vestiges of the Past but what it really reveals is a failure to prepare for future surprise. An extreme hubris of a kind linked to the worst national security failures.
media.defense.gov/2025/Apr/08/...
This is tagged as Vestiges of the Past but what it really reveals is a failure to prepare for future surprise. An extreme hubris of a kind linked to the worst national security failures.
media.defense.gov/2025/Apr/08/...
April 10, 2025 at 6:40 PM
What harm could explicitly devaluing institutional memory possibly do?
This is tagged as Vestiges of the Past but what it really reveals is a failure to prepare for future surprise. An extreme hubris of a kind linked to the worst national security failures.
media.defense.gov/2025/Apr/08/...
This is tagged as Vestiges of the Past but what it really reveals is a failure to prepare for future surprise. An extreme hubris of a kind linked to the worst national security failures.
media.defense.gov/2025/Apr/08/...
Not that there’s a need for particular signs on this but there’s something particularly telling about including the Fields’ Racecraft on this list of purged books.
April 5, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Not that there’s a need for particular signs on this but there’s something particularly telling about including the Fields’ Racecraft on this list of purged books.
The map in this promotional photo tweeted regarding Somalia strikes - was drawn from USAID funded work.
March 31, 2025 at 7:31 AM
The map in this promotional photo tweeted regarding Somalia strikes - was drawn from USAID funded work.