David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
Deputy Director, New America Future Security program
Pinned
David Sterman
@davidsterman.bsky.social
· Jul 24
The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract: In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace...
ctc.westpoint.edu
My latest on the escalation of U.S. strikes in Somalia and its interaction with rising perceptions of the threat from jihadist groups in Somalia including to the U.S. homeland.
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
ctc.westpoint.edu/the-escalati...
Very much recommend this Atlantic article. Whatever one’s thoughts on the overall framing re Trump’s approach, this is one of the most detailed tellings of the strike escalation in Somalia to hit US media including discussion of some key specific strikes and larger contexts.
An important read on US strikes in Somalia citing New America data and spotlighting an important strike that may be a civcas case and at least raises all sorts of questions.
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
So This Is What ‘America First’ Looks Like
The practical application of Trump’s isolationism is hardly the big break he promised.
www.theatlantic.com
December 12, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Very much recommend this Atlantic article. Whatever one’s thoughts on the overall framing re Trump’s approach, this is one of the most detailed tellings of the strike escalation in Somalia to hit US media including discussion of some key specific strikes and larger contexts.
Reposted by David Sterman
At least four alleged U.S. strikes in Yemen v. AQ in 2025 - yet for years we have lacked official confirmation of any strikes
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 6:35 PM
At least four alleged U.S. strikes in Yemen v. AQ in 2025 - yet for years we have lacked official confirmation of any strikes
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
An important read on US strikes in Somalia citing New America data and spotlighting an important strike that may be a civcas case and at least raises all sorts of questions.
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
So This Is What ‘America First’ Looks Like
The practical application of Trump’s isolationism is hardly the big break he promised.
www.theatlantic.com
December 11, 2025 at 7:41 PM
An important read on US strikes in Somalia citing New America data and spotlighting an important strike that may be a civcas case and at least raises all sorts of questions.
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
At least four alleged U.S. strikes in Yemen v. AQ in 2025 - yet for years we have lacked official confirmation of any strikes
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 6:35 PM
At least four alleged U.S. strikes in Yemen v. AQ in 2025 - yet for years we have lacked official confirmation of any strikes
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
This is a problem
Either there’s a secret US war that has evaded public scrutiny.
Or
the U.S. is getting blamed for others’ strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Reposted by David Sterman
1. Notice that the FBI’s Glasheen gets *very* uncomfortable when Congressman Thompson asks him some basic questions about “Antifa.” They can’t define it.
He claims Antifa is the biggest domestic terrorist threat, but that’s inconsistent with the FBI just now “building out” its analysis.
He claims Antifa is the biggest domestic terrorist threat, but that’s inconsistent with the FBI just now “building out” its analysis.
GLASHEEN: Antifa is our primary concern right now. That's the most immediate violent threat we're facing
BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?
GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now
THOMPSON: What does that mean?
BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?
GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now
THOMPSON: What does that mean?
December 11, 2025 at 6:00 PM
1. Notice that the FBI’s Glasheen gets *very* uncomfortable when Congressman Thompson asks him some basic questions about “Antifa.” They can’t define it.
He claims Antifa is the biggest domestic terrorist threat, but that’s inconsistent with the FBI just now “building out” its analysis.
He claims Antifa is the biggest domestic terrorist threat, but that’s inconsistent with the FBI just now “building out” its analysis.
Reposted by David Sterman
We are literally replaying the mistakes of the GWOT in real time 😑
‘Pentagon officials largely kept State Department counterparts in the dark about strike operations, then scrambled to try to enlist diplomats to help deal with survivors, whom military officials referred to by specific terms that included “distressed mariners.”’
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Inside the Pentagon’s Scramble to Deal With Boat Strike Survivors
www.nytimes.com
December 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
We are literally replaying the mistakes of the GWOT in real time 😑
Reposted by David Sterman
Allegations of a US night raid with a local partner force going bad, this time in Syria.
apnews.com/article/syri...
apnews.com/article/syri...
US raid allegedly killed Syrian undercover agent instead of Islamic State group official
A recent U.S. operation in Syria mistakenly killed a man who had been working undercover against the Islamic State group, according to his family, a war monitor and officials.
apnews.com
December 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Allegations of a US night raid with a local partner force going bad, this time in Syria.
apnews.com/article/syri...
apnews.com/article/syri...
Reposted by David Sterman
With this and New Zealand listing two white supremacist networks Monday (O9A and Terrorgram), it's a big week for terrorist designation/proscription.
And it's more evidence of a divergence between the US and its traditional/former allies regarding who is a "terrorist."
And it's more evidence of a divergence between the US and its traditional/former allies regarding who is a "terrorist."
As of today the Government of Canada has listed 764 and Maniac Murder Cult as terrorist entities. 🤘🔥
www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scr...
www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scr...
December 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
With this and New Zealand listing two white supremacist networks Monday (O9A and Terrorgram), it's a big week for terrorist designation/proscription.
And it's more evidence of a divergence between the US and its traditional/former allies regarding who is a "terrorist."
And it's more evidence of a divergence between the US and its traditional/former allies regarding who is a "terrorist."
Of relevance - the U.S. has not announced or confirmed a strike in Yemen vs. AQAP in years.
But local reports keep alleging US strikes.
But local reports keep alleging US strikes.
My fear is that they will stop announcing the boat strikes, and in 2029 we all find out that we have been holding hundreds of people in offshore torture prisons.
We have done it before, after all.
We have done it before, after all.
NEW: Pentagon lawyers asked State Dept. if US could send survivors of Trump's boat strikes to a notorious prison in El Salvador. Then Pentagon pushed to have survivors sent anywhere but the US — to prevent any US court cases. Gift link to our @nytimes.com story: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
December 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Of relevance - the U.S. has not announced or confirmed a strike in Yemen vs. AQAP in years.
But local reports keep alleging US strikes.
But local reports keep alleging US strikes.
It is not helpful to generate a contrast between noninterventionism and neoconservativism.
If neoconservativism is to mean anything it must be about a specific movement, its ideas, and its advocates.
Neo-neoconservative replaces analysis of many kinds of (non-)interventionism w a hypocrisy claim
If neoconservativism is to mean anything it must be about a specific movement, its ideas, and its advocates.
Neo-neoconservative replaces analysis of many kinds of (non-)interventionism w a hypocrisy claim
December 10, 2025 at 3:31 PM
It is not helpful to generate a contrast between noninterventionism and neoconservativism.
If neoconservativism is to mean anything it must be about a specific movement, its ideas, and its advocates.
Neo-neoconservative replaces analysis of many kinds of (non-)interventionism w a hypocrisy claim
If neoconservativism is to mean anything it must be about a specific movement, its ideas, and its advocates.
Neo-neoconservative replaces analysis of many kinds of (non-)interventionism w a hypocrisy claim
Reposted by David Sterman
Couple of very significant indicators regarding the illegality of the boat strikes:
1) Trump administration does not want to defend its legal theories in court, hence its aversion to sending the survivors to GTMO.
2) The UK—an incredibly close military and intel partner—views strikes as illegal.
1) Trump administration does not want to defend its legal theories in court, hence its aversion to sending the survivors to GTMO.
2) The UK—an incredibly close military and intel partner—views strikes as illegal.
Pleased to speak to @ewong.bsky.social about the administration’s legal problems in dealing with the survivors of one of the boat strikes.
“From the administration’s point of view, there are good reasons to be averse to bringing survivors to Guantánamo Bay or to the continental United States.”
“From the administration’s point of view, there are good reasons to be averse to bringing survivors to Guantánamo Bay or to the continental United States.”
NEW: Pentagon lawyers asked State Dept. if US could send survivors of Trump's boat strikes to a notorious prison in El Salvador. Then Pentagon pushed to have survivors sent anywhere but the US — to prevent any US court cases. Gift link to our @nytimes.com story: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
December 10, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Couple of very significant indicators regarding the illegality of the boat strikes:
1) Trump administration does not want to defend its legal theories in court, hence its aversion to sending the survivors to GTMO.
2) The UK—an incredibly close military and intel partner—views strikes as illegal.
1) Trump administration does not want to defend its legal theories in court, hence its aversion to sending the survivors to GTMO.
2) The UK—an incredibly close military and intel partner—views strikes as illegal.
Reading this and thinking of the resonances and also the contrasts with the prisoner problem in the early war on terror and the improvisational / largely unplanned approach that led to GTMO and various forms of prisoner abuse.
Notable here the effort faltered.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Notable here the effort faltered.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Inside the Pentagon’s Scramble to Deal With Boat Strike Survivors
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Reading this and thinking of the resonances and also the contrasts with the prisoner problem in the early war on terror and the improvisational / largely unplanned approach that led to GTMO and various forms of prisoner abuse.
Notable here the effort faltered.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Notable here the effort faltered.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Tracking some local reporting of another possible U.S. drone strike against AQAP in Yemen.
Still working on collecting/cross referencing sources.
Remains absurd that the U.S. has now for years not clarified the status of any strikes against AQAP in Yemen.
Still working on collecting/cross referencing sources.
Remains absurd that the U.S. has now for years not clarified the status of any strikes against AQAP in Yemen.
December 10, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Tracking some local reporting of another possible U.S. drone strike against AQAP in Yemen.
Still working on collecting/cross referencing sources.
Remains absurd that the U.S. has now for years not clarified the status of any strikes against AQAP in Yemen.
Still working on collecting/cross referencing sources.
Remains absurd that the U.S. has now for years not clarified the status of any strikes against AQAP in Yemen.
Reposted by David Sterman
Details on the specific day by day strike count of the recent multiday press releases now in our database of US strikes in Somalia.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
December 9, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Details on the specific day by day strike count of the recent multiday press releases now in our database of US strikes in Somalia.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Relatedly, the U.S. could very well pass the peak of the Pakistani drone campaign in Somalia this year. It’s close and a few big strike sets in the final weeks would do it.
Details on the specific day by day strike count of the recent multiday press releases now in our database of US strikes in Somalia.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
December 9, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Relatedly, the U.S. could very well pass the peak of the Pakistani drone campaign in Somalia this year. It’s close and a few big strike sets in the final weeks would do it.
Details on the specific day by day strike count of the recent multiday press releases now in our database of US strikes in Somalia.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
America’s Counterterrorism Wars
Tracking the United States's drone strikes and other operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.
www.newamerica.org
December 9, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Details on the specific day by day strike count of the recent multiday press releases now in our database of US strikes in Somalia.
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Not great that the idea of state level designations seems to be taking off. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
DeSantis Designates Muslim Advocacy Group a ‘Terrorist Organization’
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:08 AM
Not great that the idea of state level designations seems to be taking off. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/u...
Reposted by David Sterman
Terrorism features notably little in the new National Security Strategy. And notably when it does it’s rarely the traditional vision of jihadist terror from AQ/ISIS/inspired groups/individuals.
December 8, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Terrorism features notably little in the new National Security Strategy. And notably when it does it’s rarely the traditional vision of jihadist terror from AQ/ISIS/inspired groups/individuals.
Sometimes it feels like the culture got amped up on the latest remakes of Clancy’s Clear and Present Danger and forgot that the original version focuses on the issues with lacking congressional authorization and did so in an imagined conflict of an actual major attack on the U.S. gov.
December 7, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Sometimes it feels like the culture got amped up on the latest remakes of Clancy’s Clear and Present Danger and forgot that the original version focuses on the issues with lacking congressional authorization and did so in an imagined conflict of an actual major attack on the U.S. gov.
Reposted by David Sterman
NEW: A federal grand jury rejected DOJ’s latest bid to indict NY attorney general Letitia James, the latest black eye in Trump’s push to prosecute his adversaries
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @hassankanu.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @hassankanu.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
Grand jury rejects new indictment for Letitia James
The Justice Department can try a third time.
www.politico.com
December 5, 2025 at 12:16 AM
NEW: A federal grand jury rejected DOJ’s latest bid to indict NY attorney general Letitia James, the latest black eye in Trump’s push to prosecute his adversaries
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @hassankanu.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @hassankanu.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
Reposted by David Sterman
Senator Ron Johnson went on a conspiracy show to promote 9/11 Truther-type nonsense.
This is a sitting U.S. Senator.
This is a sitting U.S. Senator.
December 4, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Senator Ron Johnson went on a conspiracy show to promote 9/11 Truther-type nonsense.
This is a sitting U.S. Senator.
This is a sitting U.S. Senator.
Making policies that seem to make one of the few likely known causal factors in the DC shooting worse - and regardless will make many peoples’ lives worse.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Trump limits work permit access for migrants, after National Guard shooting
Shorter work permit expiration timelines will impact asylum seekers and other migrants in need of humanitarian relief, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 5, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Making policies that seem to make one of the few likely known causal factors in the DC shooting worse - and regardless will make many peoples’ lives worse.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
December 5, 2025 at 12:11 AM
With folks’ eyes largely on the U.S. terrorism designation front, interesting things happening with designations in Iraq seemingly. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Iraq retracts a terror designation it imposed on Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis
Iraqi officials have retracted a decision to label Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels as terrorist organizations
www.washingtonpost.com
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
With folks’ eyes largely on the U.S. terrorism designation front, interesting things happening with designations in Iraq seemingly. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...