Daniel Spiro
@danielspiro.bsky.social
Researcher economics at Uppsala U. Environment, Energy, Conflict, Development and Political Economics.
The shadow fleet and fraud have largely made the G7 price cap obsolete. So how can the EU and its allies fix that?
Here we make the case for a European transport ban on Russian oil: A tanker transporting Russian oil should be banned from EU oil trade and ports.🧵
freepolicybriefs.org/2025/11/24/t...
Here we make the case for a European transport ban on Russian oil: A tanker transporting Russian oil should be banned from EU oil trade and ports.🧵
freepolicybriefs.org/2025/11/24/t...
The Case for a Transport Ban on Russian Oil
Transport ban on Russian oil could cut Russia’s revenues while avoiding price spikes, offering a more effective alternative to the price cap.
freepolicybriefs.org
November 24, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The shadow fleet and fraud have largely made the G7 price cap obsolete. So how can the EU and its allies fix that?
Here we make the case for a European transport ban on Russian oil: A tanker transporting Russian oil should be banned from EU oil trade and ports.🧵
freepolicybriefs.org/2025/11/24/t...
Here we make the case for a European transport ban on Russian oil: A tanker transporting Russian oil should be banned from EU oil trade and ports.🧵
freepolicybriefs.org/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
I told WSJ that given the leverage the US seems willing to exert, Zelenskyy would need to consider the peace proposal seriously, even though the current version would be impossible for Ukrainians to accept
The real question is whether Ukraine can get a better deal. 1/
The real question is whether Ukraine can get a better deal. 1/
November 23, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I told WSJ that given the leverage the US seems willing to exert, Zelenskyy would need to consider the peace proposal seriously, even though the current version would be impossible for Ukrainians to accept
The real question is whether Ukraine can get a better deal. 1/
The real question is whether Ukraine can get a better deal. 1/
Interesting 👇
Our paper on harvest-time changes in conflict, violence, and social unrest has been assigned to a volume and issue (makes it easier to cite). It offers some valuable insights, in my opinion. Luckily, it is also open access, so feel free to check it out: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia - Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava, 2025
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands o...
doi.org
November 20, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Interesting 👇
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
Vi inte bara kan utan måste. Eftersom fredlig samexistens med detta Ryssland, under denna regim, inte är möjlig för vare sig Ukraina eller oss i väst.
”Vi kan knäcka Ryssland”
Västländernas stöd till Ukraina fick en dipp i mitten av året. Det är olyckligt i ett läge där USA dragit sig ur försvarsbiståndet samtidigt som Ryssland öser på till sin krigskassa, skriver Alex Voro...
www.vk.se
November 10, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Vi inte bara kan utan måste. Eftersom fredlig samexistens med detta Ryssland, under denna regim, inte är möjlig för vare sig Ukraina eller oss i väst.
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
This very interesting paper raises a broader questions: why do some scandals stay contained while others discredit an entire political class? Part of the answer, I think, lies in diffeences in the clarity of accountability across democratic political systems. A well-established line of research
NEW -
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 10, 2025 at 6:02 PM
This very interesting paper raises a broader questions: why do some scandals stay contained while others discredit an entire political class? Part of the answer, I think, lies in diffeences in the clarity of accountability across democratic political systems. A well-established line of research
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
Putin lost his teeth in Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine.
Former Ukrainian Marine Shaun Pinner compared it with the farmhouse at Waterloo. Both places mauled the army of an imperial aggressor, CEPA.
"We fight for survival. Russia fights for optics.” 1/
Former Ukrainian Marine Shaun Pinner compared it with the farmhouse at Waterloo. Both places mauled the army of an imperial aggressor, CEPA.
"We fight for survival. Russia fights for optics.” 1/
November 8, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Putin lost his teeth in Pokrovsk, a city in eastern Ukraine.
Former Ukrainian Marine Shaun Pinner compared it with the farmhouse at Waterloo. Both places mauled the army of an imperial aggressor, CEPA.
"We fight for survival. Russia fights for optics.” 1/
Former Ukrainian Marine Shaun Pinner compared it with the farmhouse at Waterloo. Both places mauled the army of an imperial aggressor, CEPA.
"We fight for survival. Russia fights for optics.” 1/
This suggests China now will go all in on solving climate change.
And gives one reason why the Trump admin seems to go all in on wrecking it.
And gives one reason why the Trump admin seems to go all in on wrecking it.
The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This suggests China now will go all in on solving climate change.
And gives one reason why the Trump admin seems to go all in on wrecking it.
And gives one reason why the Trump admin seems to go all in on wrecking it.
Putin, Xi, Trump and Modi are all above 70:
The Grampatriarchy
The Grampatriarchy
November 7, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Putin, Xi, Trump and Modi are all above 70:
The Grampatriarchy
The Grampatriarchy
Lika provocerande varje gång. Var är skattebetalarnas intresseförening?
Friskolorna i Sundsvall kompenseras med 31,2 miljoner kronor när kommunen får extra kostnader för att den tappar elever till friskolorna.
Beräkningen av skolpengen måste rätta till så att marknadsskolorna inte kompensera för kostnader som de själva har orsakar kommunerna.
www.st.nu/2025-11-06/f...
Beräkningen av skolpengen måste rätta till så att marknadsskolorna inte kompensera för kostnader som de själva har orsakar kommunerna.
www.st.nu/2025-11-06/f...
LISTAN: Friskolorna kompenseras med miljoner
• Kritik från skolorna • Svaret om vinstutdelning
www.st.nu
November 6, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Lika provocerande varje gång. Var är skattebetalarnas intresseförening?
Sobering thread
Where America stands, one year after the election.
A fascistic movement controls the government; they are building an authoritarian state; but they have not been able yet to extend authoritarian rule across society. A democracy no more, but not a consolidated autocratic regime yet.
New piece:
A fascistic movement controls the government; they are building an authoritarian state; but they have not been able yet to extend authoritarian rule across society. A democracy no more, but not a consolidated autocratic regime yet.
New piece:
Escalation, Authoritarian “Normalization,” or a Democratic Turnaround?
One year after the election: What we can say with certainty about the state of the Trumpist assault, where uncertainty lies, and where America might go from here
steady.page
November 4, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Sobering thread
Vad hände med: ” Istället för att vara överambitiösa hemma så jobbar vi för att utsläppen sänks globalt”
Trump skickar ingen till COP30 och Tidöregeringen vill såklart inte vara bättre. För första gången någonsin väljer Sverige nu att inte ha en minister på plats under klimatförhandlingarna. Först fuckar makthavarna upp klimatet, sedan stannar de hemma för att slippa ta ansvar
omni.se/analyser-sve...
omni.se/analyser-sve...
November 3, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Vad hände med: ” Istället för att vara överambitiösa hemma så jobbar vi för att utsläppen sänks globalt”
Till politiska partierna inför valet:
1) I första hand vill jag veta vilken politik NI SJÄLVA tänker driva.
2) Er motivation/analys bakom detta.
3) Prioritering vid kompromiss.
4) Primär koalition
5) Utesluten koalition
.
.
949) Favoritrecept
.
.
1437) Er analys av andra partier.
Mvh
En väljare
1) I första hand vill jag veta vilken politik NI SJÄLVA tänker driva.
2) Er motivation/analys bakom detta.
3) Prioritering vid kompromiss.
4) Primär koalition
5) Utesluten koalition
.
.
949) Favoritrecept
.
.
1437) Er analys av andra partier.
Mvh
En väljare
October 30, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Till politiska partierna inför valet:
1) I första hand vill jag veta vilken politik NI SJÄLVA tänker driva.
2) Er motivation/analys bakom detta.
3) Prioritering vid kompromiss.
4) Primär koalition
5) Utesluten koalition
.
.
949) Favoritrecept
.
.
1437) Er analys av andra partier.
Mvh
En väljare
1) I första hand vill jag veta vilken politik NI SJÄLVA tänker driva.
2) Er motivation/analys bakom detta.
3) Prioritering vid kompromiss.
4) Primär koalition
5) Utesluten koalition
.
.
949) Favoritrecept
.
.
1437) Er analys av andra partier.
Mvh
En väljare
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
Germany is weighing the nationalization of Rosneft’s German subsidiary after fresh US sanctions. The unit controls key refineries, including Schwedt, vital for Berlin’s fuel supply. Talks are ongoing about seizing and selling it, as Berlin seeks to end dependency on Kremlin-linked infrastructure.
October 29, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Germany is weighing the nationalization of Rosneft’s German subsidiary after fresh US sanctions. The unit controls key refineries, including Schwedt, vital for Berlin’s fuel supply. Talks are ongoing about seizing and selling it, as Berlin seeks to end dependency on Kremlin-linked infrastructure.
This discrepancy is fascinating:
- With egg consumption, the reference point is last year's egg price and people are willing to throw democracy out the window if it rises by some %.
- With climate change the reference point is human extinction, and as long as we avoid that all is fine.
- With egg consumption, the reference point is last year's egg price and people are willing to throw democracy out the window if it rises by some %.
- With climate change the reference point is human extinction, and as long as we avoid that all is fine.
To quote my friend @drkatemarvel.bsky.social, climate change won't make humanity extinct but we can do better than "not extinct". Raise your standards people!
October 29, 2025 at 9:03 AM
This discrepancy is fascinating:
- With egg consumption, the reference point is last year's egg price and people are willing to throw democracy out the window if it rises by some %.
- With climate change the reference point is human extinction, and as long as we avoid that all is fine.
- With egg consumption, the reference point is last year's egg price and people are willing to throw democracy out the window if it rises by some %.
- With climate change the reference point is human extinction, and as long as we avoid that all is fine.
Actually quite funny. Putin is clearly the most hated person in many countries. For sure in my country Sweden, pretty sure in all Nordic countries. Would think also in almost all Western European countries. Easy to find Putin haters essentially everywhere.
Is Carlson deceived or manipulating?
Is Carlson deceived or manipulating?
Tucker Carlson:
"Putin is the most popular leader in the world.Whether you're in Western Europe,Canada,the English-speaking world,outside the English-speaking world,Asia,the Middle East,Eastern Europe,you won't meet anyone who doesn't like Putin;Putin is like a global celebrity.That's a fact.I know"
"Putin is the most popular leader in the world.Whether you're in Western Europe,Canada,the English-speaking world,outside the English-speaking world,Asia,the Middle East,Eastern Europe,you won't meet anyone who doesn't like Putin;Putin is like a global celebrity.That's a fact.I know"
October 28, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Actually quite funny. Putin is clearly the most hated person in many countries. For sure in my country Sweden, pretty sure in all Nordic countries. Would think also in almost all Western European countries. Easy to find Putin haters essentially everywhere.
Is Carlson deceived or manipulating?
Is Carlson deceived or manipulating?
Jag stöder detta. Skolsystemet måste ändras. Bedragarna och vänskapskorruptionen måste bort från skolan och våra barn.
STÖTTA BALANS VALFOND!
Skolägare och lobbyister har obegränsade resurser för påverkan och marknadsföring. Flödet fylls redan av en kaskad av debattartiklar och utspel för att skydda vinsterna. Swisha 1230635714 om du vill vara del av motståndet. Vi lovar att göra det mesta av varje krona.
Skolägare och lobbyister har obegränsade resurser för påverkan och marknadsföring. Flödet fylls redan av en kaskad av debattartiklar och utspel för att skydda vinsterna. Swisha 1230635714 om du vill vara del av motståndet. Vi lovar att göra det mesta av varje krona.
October 28, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Jag stöder detta. Skolsystemet måste ändras. Bedragarna och vänskapskorruptionen måste bort från skolan och våra barn.
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
Det här är den stora kompetensutvecklingstråden där jag delar alla inlägg i Balans nya bloggsatsning: "Berätta om forskning, utredningar och förklara enskilda delar av välfärdens styrning". Kunskap är makt!
1. OECD vill ha ett svenskt lobbyregister! tankesmedjanbalans.se/oecd-infor-e...
1. OECD vill ha ett svenskt lobbyregister! tankesmedjanbalans.se/oecd-infor-e...
October 7, 2025 at 5:10 AM
Det här är den stora kompetensutvecklingstråden där jag delar alla inlägg i Balans nya bloggsatsning: "Berätta om forskning, utredningar och förklara enskilda delar av välfärdens styrning". Kunskap är makt!
1. OECD vill ha ett svenskt lobbyregister! tankesmedjanbalans.se/oecd-infor-e...
1. OECD vill ha ett svenskt lobbyregister! tankesmedjanbalans.se/oecd-infor-e...
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
First moments after the Russian attack on a daycare in Kharkiv.
Kids crying for their moms, rescuers and civilians rushing to get them out of the building...
Heartbreaking.
Kids crying for their moms, rescuers and civilians rushing to get them out of the building...
Heartbreaking.
October 22, 2025 at 9:51 AM
First moments after the Russian attack on a daycare in Kharkiv.
Kids crying for their moms, rescuers and civilians rushing to get them out of the building...
Heartbreaking.
Kids crying for their moms, rescuers and civilians rushing to get them out of the building...
Heartbreaking.
Interesting 👇
Most research looks at how voters induces political parties to polarize.
This paper looks at how politicians induces people to polarize.
Most research looks at how voters induces political parties to polarize.
This paper looks at how politicians induces people to polarize.
🚨NEW VERSION IS HERE!!!
🔥ADDING FUEL TO THE (GUN)FIRE 2.0❤️🔥
LINK: gratton.org/papers/Addin...
A short 🧵 👇 1/8
🔥ADDING FUEL TO THE (GUN)FIRE 2.0❤️🔥
LINK: gratton.org/papers/Addin...
A short 🧵 👇 1/8
October 22, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Interesting 👇
Most research looks at how voters induces political parties to polarize.
This paper looks at how politicians induces people to polarize.
Most research looks at how voters induces political parties to polarize.
This paper looks at how politicians induces people to polarize.
Wow, I expected something like this, but still, wow
Wow. Harvard nuking its PhD programs
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
Harvard FAS Cuts Ph.D. Seats By More Than Half Across Next Two Admissions Cycles | News | The Harvard Crimson
The Faculty of Arts and Sciences slashed the number of Ph.D. student admissions slots for the Science division by more than 75 percent and for the Arts & Humanities division by about 60 percent for th...
www.thecrimson.com
October 21, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Wow, I expected something like this, but still, wow
Reposted by Daniel Spiro
Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...
Nederlandse diensten delen minder informatie met de VS: ‘Soms vertellen we dingen niet meer’
Het aantal dreigingen dat op Nederland afkomt is groot, zien de hoofden van de AIVD en de MIVD elke dag: niet alleen Russische agressie, maar ook de opmars van China als digitale macht en binnenlands ...
www.volkskrant.nl
October 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...
Serving militarily under Trump is an extremely stark example of the Exit vs Voice trade off
Admiral Alvin Holsey, head of the U.S. Southern Command, is resigning less than a year into his tenure amid escalating illegal U.S. military strikes against boats in the Caribbean, which the Trump regime claims are smuggling drugs.
Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say
www.nytimes.com
October 17, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Serving militarily under Trump is an extremely stark example of the Exit vs Voice trade off
Jäv!
2022 röstade M ner ett förslag från regeringen att sänka friskolors skolpeng. Ulf Kristerssons fru och bästa kompis satt då i styrelsen för Europaskolan som var uttalat mot en sänkning. Statsministerparets bästa vän satt i styrelsen för skolkoncernen Watma, med uppdrag att motarbeta förslaget.
October 16, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Jäv!
Let's hope the American public understands Bayes' law when reading about their department of defense going ahead.
October 14, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Let's hope the American public understands Bayes' law when reading about their department of defense going ahead.
To all editors out there. I understand it's nice to get things of your desk. But be a sport, please don't send rejection emails just before Christmas or on Friday afternoons. Maybe you can prepare everything and press send after the holiday.
The rejection came two days before Christmas. It was one of the most painful moments in my career. I'd been working on the manuscript for 2-3 years beforehand.
But the peer review comments (from the new reviewers!) were so ignorant (and arrogant) that I wanted to give up and leave academia.
But the peer review comments (from the new reviewers!) were so ignorant (and arrogant) that I wanted to give up and leave academia.
October 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
To all editors out there. I understand it's nice to get things of your desk. But be a sport, please don't send rejection emails just before Christmas or on Friday afternoons. Maybe you can prepare everything and press send after the holiday.