Will Lowe
LightNews LightNews
banner
conjugateprior.org
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
3.4K followers 740 following 9.8K posts
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.

Rome Statute appreciator.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
conjugateprior.org
Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · Apr 15
For Monty Hall problem aficionados: a #causal DAG, with explanation in the alt text.

Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
A DAG for the Monty Hall problem. G, the door Monty opens, is a function of your first door choice D_F and of where the car is C. Conditioning on G, which happens because it determines your door choices when you have the opportunity to switch, induces collider bias between C and D_F, such that they are now less likely to be equal. (Why? because G cannot be C and G cannot be D_F. These are in the same 'direction' so, conditional on G, D_F is less likely to be C.) You decide to switch conditional on G, which you just observed, and D_F, because that defines what you can switch to. Conditional on G you now know D_F is less likely to be equal to C. So you switch. Note: In the original problem, W is a deterministic function of C and D_S so it's slightly cheeky to put it in a DAG, but I'm going to do so anyway. The argument doesn't require it, but if you want to think informally about opening paths to W from D_F via C, it's helpful. That makes this problem a variation on M-bias (or a clipped wing butterfly bias, if you prefer insects to goats).
conjugateprior.org
Tariff-brain (US National Parks edition)

Note to Americans: These things start with foreigners but don't stop with them.
Changes to Entrance Fees and Passes in 2026 Beginning January 1, 2026, changes to entrance fees and passes include: • America the Beautiful passes will cover entrance fees for up to two motorcycles. • A new America the Beautiful pass for nonresidents of the US will be available for $250. All other America the Beautiful passes Will only be available to Us citizens and permanent residents. • Entrance fee free days will only apply to US citizens and residents. Nonresidents will be required to pay entrance fees and applicable nonresident fees. • The following parks will have a surcharge of $100 for each nonresident of the US entering the park: Acadia National Park, Bryce Canyon National Park, Everglades National Park, Glacier National Park, Grand Canyon National Park, Grand Teton National Park, Rocky Mountain National Park, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Yellowstone National Park, Yosemite National Parks, and Zion National Park.
November 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
conjugateprior.org
Whether or not you think replication failures show that cognitive dissonance (or dunning-kruger or grit or...) is not a thing, the big question is: where do 'effects' belong in psychology?

Some think they're just practically-derived motivating phenomena, like fire and rusting for thermodynamics
1/2
November 25, 2025 at 9:33 AM
conjugateprior.org
Monster: ...but you get to choose what.
Me [thinking furiously]: Aha! Feathers. I'd like to be hit by a ton of feathers, please.
Monster: You don't understand how weights works, do you?
November 24, 2025 at 6:08 PM
conjugateprior.org
Some of these Harry Potter sequels look surprisingly good
"Thomas Kuhn and the Causal Theory of Reference" by Jacob McDowell, in Hopos.
November 24, 2025 at 9:50 AM
conjugateprior.org
Apropos nothing in particular, I just got a nice new T-shirt

(from the fine folk at @kyivindependent.com)
603,628 square kilometers
November 22, 2025 at 6:07 PM
conjugateprior.org
"we are not fighting fossil fuels, we are fighting the use of fossils for fuel"

well, ok then...
politico.eu POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 5d
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said today that the fight against climate change was not against the fuels that cause it — only the pollution they emit.
Von der Leyen says EU is not fighting fossil fuels, only emissions
The comment could undermine European countries’ push at COP30 to move away from coal, oil and gas.
www.politico.eu
November 22, 2025 at 5:50 PM
conjugateprior.org
"Beeindruckende Karte, aber eigentlich hätte ich gern das, was die da drüben haben"
jacktindale.bsky.social Jack Tindale @jacktindale.bsky.social · 5d
wow i didnt know countries could do that
November 21, 2025 at 1:29 PM
conjugateprior.org
May as well admit what you noticed already: I have absolutely no idea where to put commas, and more German is just making it worse.
weeder.bsky.social weeder @weeder.bsky.social · 7d
Commas are the parsley, in the teeth of my posts
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 PM
conjugateprior.org
The really annoying thing about

"No, you don't understand, my LLM can summarize the state of the field for me"

vs

"No, you don't understand, LLMs can't summarize anything, they just predict the next token"

is that each side can tell themselves it's the other side making the category error.
November 19, 2025 at 3:58 PM
conjugateprior.org
So you think to yourself, "Ok, I'll just go check in on the old place" and what do you find? A Home Secretary figuring out how to make asylum applications revenue neutral by confiscating wedding rings, and whatever the fuck this is:
"Three sugar cubes worth of plastic enough to kill a puffin, study finds" From the Guardian, god help us all.
November 17, 2025 at 9:02 PM
conjugateprior.org
Periodic reminder to authors that when people say they were inspired by what you wrote, you really never know what they took away from it.
Maxi Becker, a cognitive neuroscientist at Duke University, first got interested in insight after reading the landmark 1962 book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by the historian and philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn. "He describes how some ideas are so powerful that they can completely shift the way an entire field thinks," she said. "That got me wondering: How does the brain come up with those kinds of ideas? How can a single thought change how we see the world?"
November 17, 2025 at 1:42 PM
conjugateprior.org
"I'll just age faster if I leave this longitudinal analysis and you can't make me. I'm never dropping out. Just close the R session and walk away."
"Multilingualism protects against accelerated aging in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of 27 European countries"
November 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
conjugateprior.org
To be fair to Aristotle, some people do have radiators for brains.
irhottakes.bsky.social Starfish Who Can’t Think Something Witty @irhottakes.bsky.social · 11d
Ancient philosophy is 50% profound eternal wisdom and 50% that same exact guy declaring with supreme confidence two paragraphs later that pee is stored in the armpit.
lawnerd.bsky.social Silly B Man @lawnerd.bsky.social · 11d
Aristotle in his books on nature insisted men have more teeth than women.
November 15, 2025 at 8:42 PM
conjugateprior.org
I have time and respect for the religious to the extent words and beliefs turn into deeds. This here? Deeds. So, respect.
November 15, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Reposted by Will Lowe
greenevillezoo.bsky.social
We are phasing out the terms “extant” and “extinct” from our exhibits and will now refer to species as either “Darwinners" or “Darlosers.”
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 PM
conjugateprior.org
This picture of why EU leadership is particularly susceptible to AI hype rings true to me.

Extending @epopppp.bsky.social's view (in HTLE) of motivating governance metaphors, it feels like a successful bid to move elites from technical or cost-benefit thinking to a management picture.
robin.berjon.com Robin Berjon @robin.berjon.com · 11d
It's a managerial elite. Over the past decades they've heard many times "that's not possible" and "computers don't work that way." But this is presented as just a thing that you delegate to and it figures out the details. They *get* that.
November 15, 2025 at 9:42 AM
conjugateprior.org
*Some great looking pull requests appear from a developer in Virginia*
November 13, 2025 at 4:29 PM
conjugateprior.org
Y = [T=1]Y⁽¹⁾ + [T=0]Y⁽⁰⁾

I don't make the rules
jennyholzer.bsky.social Jenny Holzer @jennyholzer.bsky.social · 13d
POTENTIAL COUNTS FOR NOTHING UNTIL IT'S REALIZED
November 13, 2025 at 3:22 PM
conjugateprior.org
So, this character just turns up in my building, jet black and rhythmically rocking the bird over our mailboxes. Sometimes I wish Berlin could stop being quite so Berlin for a moment.
I have so many questions, but is it weird that "how does a cat have a finger like this" is top of the list?
November 13, 2025 at 11:39 AM
conjugateprior.org
Conjecture: If the Vietnam War draft is any guide, most of those exiting the US will go to Canada and an order of magnitude fewer to Europe. In this case, there's also US private industry which will probably soak up most wavering early career folk.
November 13, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Reposted by Will Lowe
simonsaysnothin.bsky.social
Kein besserer Start in den Morgen als mit einem starken ZEIT-Artikel meines großartigen Hertie-Kollegen Christian Gläßel und @ascharpf.bsky.social: www.zeit.de/politik/ausl... (Freebie-Link)
Rekrutierung bei ICE: Repression als Karrierechance
Das Ziel: 3.000 Festnahmen pro Tag. Die US-Einwanderungsbehörde ICE geht nicht zimperlich vor, und den schmutzigen Job machen Leute mit fragwürdiger Eignung. Kein Zufall.
www.zeit.de
November 13, 2025 at 7:34 AM
conjugateprior.org
Someone alert Elon. This are the laws Bladerunner would have written.
November 12, 2025 at 2:54 PM
conjugateprior.org
The secret to not worrying about the ever increasing volume of research papers is the ability to evaluate a methods section for obvious horseshit. Turns out, not reading those papers frees up a lot of time that you can spend worrying about the appalling research waste.
November 12, 2025 at 11:35 AM
conjugateprior.org
Despite having written a whole PhD thesis on word embeddings as a psychological model of word representation, I would still rather it had the Box property: false but useful.
sarahjeong.bsky.social sarah jeong @sarahjeong.bsky.social · 15d
ever since I learned about three-cueing I've developed infinitely more patience for replies on social media. mfers literally do not know how to read. people are walking around conjuring random meanings into words they don't know, and they don't know a lot of words. it's crazy
November 12, 2025 at 8:40 AM
conjugateprior.org
The Appointment with AI in Samarra
An article title says that James Bond screenwriters have run into major problem. With a link to the article. An AI pop up offers to pontificate on the consequences of that problem. But you haven't yet clicked and seen the article yet. Somerset-Maugham retells the story: "The Appointment on Samarra" The speaker is Death There was a merchant in Bagdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the marketplace I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that had jostled me. She looked at me and made a threatening gesture; now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away from this city and avoid my fate. I will go to Samarra and there Death will not find me. The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and he dug his spurs in its flanks and as fast as the horse could gallop he went. Then the merchant went down to the marketplace and he saw me standing in the crowd and he came to me and said, Why did you make a threating getsture to my servant when you saw him this morning? That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Bagdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.
November 11, 2025 at 10:48 AM