Ben Sanderson
@benmsanderson.bsky.social
Climate scientist at CICERO, Oslo. I try to talk about climate science, but inevitably start talking about trains and bicycles if left unattended.
We've been explaining various methods to cook eggs to our kid, establishing a parameter space with rarely sampled areas. It's up to him to now assess why.
October 25, 2025 at 7:52 PM
We've been explaining various methods to cook eggs to our kid, establishing a parameter space with rarely sampled areas. It's up to him to now assess why.
This seems dangerous. The whole fact that the working language of LLMs is English isn't an inefficiency - it's a critical safety feature. If we allow native machine learning 'languages' we lose both traceability and our ability to monitor hyper intelligent systems.
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM
This seems dangerous. The whole fact that the working language of LLMs is English isn't an inefficiency - it's a critical safety feature. If we allow native machine learning 'languages' we lose both traceability and our ability to monitor hyper intelligent systems.
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
Dear Google autocorrect: I write "TCRE" about 1000 times more frequently than I write "tyre"and you should know this by now.
October 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Dear Google autocorrect: I write "TCRE" about 1000 times more frequently than I write "tyre"and you should know this by now.
Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
It’s goodnight Vienna as Paris sleeper train to Austria and Berlin hit by cuts
Some Nightjet services suspended from mid-December after French withdrawal amid public budget crisis
www.theguardian.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Let's just be clear on this.
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
ZUCKERBERG: “If we end up misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is going to be very unfortunate, obviously. .. But what I’d say is I actually think the risk is higher on the other side.”
$META
youtu.be/23FyskyFoP8?...
$META
youtu.be/23FyskyFoP8?...
September 26, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Let's just be clear on this.
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Bessent openly buried Article 5
Bessent: "Now Putin has started making incursions into the NATO borders. The one thing I can tell you is the US is not going to get involved with troops or any of that. We will sell the Europeans weapons."
September 24, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Bessent openly buried Article 5
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback!
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
September 3, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback!
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.
September 24, 2025 at 6:45 AM
It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
The Stupidest Speech in UN History
Everyone's saying so!
billmckibben.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...
Climate change: evidence and causes | Royal Society
Supplementary information for the project 'Climate Change: Evidence and causes'.
royalsociety.org
September 23, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...
Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1
I have a new @nytimes.com guest essay w/ @davidkeith.bsky.social about sunlight reflection. We note its not a solution for climate change and at best a band aid to treat systems, and suggest if its ever done it should only be to replace the cooling from air pollution today:
Opinion | A Responsible Way to Cool the Planet
A small, carefully scaled geoengineering program could compensate for the loss of cooling as we eliminate sulfur pollution.
www.nytimes.com
September 21, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1
WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
September 20, 2025 at 9:42 PM
WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.
Why is this horrible for Universities?
Just about everyone who isn't a citizen or green card holder already who's hired for a tenure track faculty position is hired through an H1B and then, after 3-5 years, applies for a green card.
This is literally "No more foreign professors can be hired"
Just about everyone who isn't a citizen or green card holder already who's hired for a tenure track faculty position is hired through an H1B and then, after 3-5 years, applies for a green card.
This is literally "No more foreign professors can be hired"
Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
September 20, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
September 19, 2025 at 7:34 PM
funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock
ECS <2 is absurd in the year of our lord 2025.
The data used in Sherwood et al is now almost a decade old (not to mention Lewis and Curry 2014).
Even ignoring pattern effects, we’re now already at ~1.5C with less than 2xCO2 and an even larger energy imbalance.
No way Effective ECS is <2.
The data used in Sherwood et al is now almost a decade old (not to mention Lewis and Curry 2014).
Even ignoring pattern effects, we’re now already at ~1.5C with less than 2xCO2 and an even larger energy imbalance.
No way Effective ECS is <2.
But it's not just uniform vs Jeffreys. There are other priors and there are other ways to estimate ECS. As Andrew points out, if your method suggest a good chance of the ECS being < 2K, then there's probably an issue with the method, or it's at least worth considering this.
September 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock
I remember only 6 or 7 years ago, trips to Paris were a gridlocked nightmare where cycling was a death wish. It's totally amazing how much they've transformed it into a genuinely nice place for people to walk, cycle, eat outside - just to live.
There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.
There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.
Notre ville change ! Nos rues sont peu à peu rendues aux habitants, de nouveaux arbres sont plantés et les promenades facilitées et sécurisées.
C'est le cas de la rue Chaptal dans le 9e ou celle du Docteur-Lecène dans le 13e !
C'est le cas de la rue Chaptal dans le 9e ou celle du Docteur-Lecène dans le 13e !
September 11, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I remember only 6 or 7 years ago, trips to Paris were a gridlocked nightmare where cycling was a death wish. It's totally amazing how much they've transformed it into a genuinely nice place for people to walk, cycle, eat outside - just to live.
There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.
There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
The worst of both worlds - DOE not withdrawing report AND refusing to respond to public comments on it. But the substantive question is related to how it is used to support (or not) EPA's proposed repeal of the Endangerment Finding - still TBD I guess?
I corresponded with DOE today and they confirmed they have no intention of withdrawing the report.
September 11, 2025 at 5:44 PM
The worst of both worlds - DOE not withdrawing report AND refusing to respond to public comments on it. But the substantive question is related to how it is used to support (or not) EPA's proposed repeal of the Endangerment Finding - still TBD I guess?
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
I've been getting requests from reporters about the disbanding of the DOE Climate Working Group. Here are some comments. More to come on my Substack (www.theclimatebrink.com).
September 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I've been getting requests from reporters about the disbanding of the DOE Climate Working Group. Here are some comments. More to come on my Substack (www.theclimatebrink.com).
This is a fascinating development.
Lawyers: Does DOE dissolving the climate report research group and declaring the lawsuits "moot" imply that the report cannot be used as the basis for any future lawmaking? Is there also responsbility for damage from misinformation? www.law.cornell.edu/wex/moot
Lawyers: Does DOE dissolving the climate report research group and declaring the lawsuits "moot" imply that the report cannot be used as the basis for any future lawmaking? Is there also responsbility for damage from misinformation? www.law.cornell.edu/wex/moot
September 10, 2025 at 7:46 PM
This is a fascinating development.
Lawyers: Does DOE dissolving the climate report research group and declaring the lawsuits "moot" imply that the report cannot be used as the basis for any future lawmaking? Is there also responsbility for damage from misinformation? www.law.cornell.edu/wex/moot
Lawyers: Does DOE dissolving the climate report research group and declaring the lawsuits "moot" imply that the report cannot be used as the basis for any future lawmaking? Is there also responsbility for damage from misinformation? www.law.cornell.edu/wex/moot
Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...
gmd.copernicus.org
September 8, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
I never thought I would be spending my time explaining the scientific method to one of the most well funded research institutions in the history of humanity, but here we are.
But it was so uplifting to see so many brilliant scientists provide context to every point in this thing. You guys rock.
But it was so uplifting to see so many brilliant scientists provide context to every point in this thing. You guys rock.
Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
August 28, 2025 at 10:15 PM
I never thought I would be spending my time explaining the scientific method to one of the most well funded research institutions in the history of humanity, but here we are.
But it was so uplifting to see so many brilliant scientists provide context to every point in this thing. You guys rock.
But it was so uplifting to see so many brilliant scientists provide context to every point in this thing. You guys rock.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
What a situation we're in.
▸He said countries were “destroying themselves” with wind energy and said, “I hope they get back to fossil fuels.”
The most powerful country in the world is now punishing other countries for addressing the climate crisis.
▸He said countries were “destroying themselves” with wind energy and said, “I hope they get back to fossil fuels.”
The most powerful country in the world is now punishing other countries for addressing the climate crisis.
Trump, With Tariffs and Threats, Tries to Strong-Arm Nations to Retreat on Climate Goals
www.nytimes.com
August 28, 2025 at 5:54 AM
What a situation we're in.
▸He said countries were “destroying themselves” with wind energy and said, “I hope they get back to fossil fuels.”
The most powerful country in the world is now punishing other countries for addressing the climate crisis.
▸He said countries were “destroying themselves” with wind energy and said, “I hope they get back to fossil fuels.”
The most powerful country in the world is now punishing other countries for addressing the climate crisis.
Why can't we just provide the DOI of a paper to a journal and then they can format it how they like? Like, I don't know what volume this paper was in because I'm not sitting in front of some shelves in a research library in 1992.
August 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Why can't we just provide the DOI of a paper to a journal and then they can format it how they like? Like, I don't know what volume this paper was in because I'm not sitting in front of some shelves in a research library in 1992.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes
Preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724
with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke
Preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724
with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke
Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to ...
arxiv.org
August 22, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes
Preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724
with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke
Preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724
with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke