Being Exponential | Luke Lango
@beingexponential.bsky.social
🔍 Decode AI, tech & market trends
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📈 Thrive in a world of exponential change
🎙️ New episodes weekly | 🎧 Subscribe now
https://www.youtube.com/@BeingExponential
BTC also topped about 18 months after the Second Halving and the Third Halving. If the price pattern persists, BTC will keep falling until late 2026 or early 2027.
I'm a Bitcoin believer. But I'm also an evidence-based analyst. And the evidence right now is not bullish for cryptos.
I'm a Bitcoin believer. But I'm also an evidence-based analyst. And the evidence right now is not bullish for cryptos.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
BTC also topped about 18 months after the Second Halving and the Third Halving. If the price pattern persists, BTC will keep falling until late 2026 or early 2027.
I'm a Bitcoin believer. But I'm also an evidence-based analyst. And the evidence right now is not bullish for cryptos.
I'm a Bitcoin believer. But I'm also an evidence-based analyst. And the evidence right now is not bullish for cryptos.
5.) The halving cycle timing is too perfect. This cycle wasn't supposed to be like previous cycles. But it is playing out just like previous cycles. BTC topped in October 2025, about 18 months after the Fourth Halving, and has been falling ever since.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
5.) The halving cycle timing is too perfect. This cycle wasn't supposed to be like previous cycles. But it is playing out just like previous cycles. BTC topped in October 2025, about 18 months after the Fourth Halving, and has been falling ever since.
But its weekly RSI rarely drops below 30, and every time it has dropped below in the past, we were firmly in a bust cycle - January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022. This past week, BTC's weekly RSI dropped below 30. That's exceptionally bearish.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
But its weekly RSI rarely drops below 30, and every time it has dropped below in the past, we were firmly in a bust cycle - January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022. This past week, BTC's weekly RSI dropped below 30. That's exceptionally bearish.
4.) The weekly RSI has dropped below 30. Bitcoin's daily RSI drops below 30 all the time. That's a byproduct of being a very volatile asset.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
4.) The weekly RSI has dropped below 30. Bitcoin's daily RSI drops below 30 all the time. That's a byproduct of being a very volatile asset.
The 50-week support turned into 50-week resistance. The same thing happened in March 2022, July 2018, and September 2014 - again, very bearish price precedents.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
The 50-week support turned into 50-week resistance. The same thing happened in March 2022, July 2018, and September 2014 - again, very bearish price precedents.
Which is why we've been paying closer attention to another test: Once BTC lost its 50-week moving average in November, could it quickly jump back above it? The answer is no. In fact, BTC made a run for the 50-week in January and then got promptly rejected.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Which is why we've been paying closer attention to another test: Once BTC lost its 50-week moving average in November, could it quickly jump back above it? The answer is no. In fact, BTC made a run for the 50-week in January and then got promptly rejected.
Whenever it is below its 50-week moving average, it is typically in a bust cycle. To be sure, BTC did drop below its 50-week moving average during Covid - but then quickly jumped right back above it.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Whenever it is below its 50-week moving average, it is typically in a bust cycle. To be sure, BTC did drop below its 50-week moving average during Covid - but then quickly jumped right back above it.
3.) We failed to retake the all-important 50-week moving average. The 50-week moving average has long served as the "cycle indicator" line for BTC. Historically speaking, whenever BTC is above its 50-week moving average, it is typically in a boom cycle.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
3.) We failed to retake the all-important 50-week moving average. The 50-week moving average has long served as the "cycle indicator" line for BTC. Historically speaking, whenever BTC is above its 50-week moving average, it is typically in a boom cycle.
That's an important level, because every time in the past that the slope on BTC's 200-day moving average first turned below -0.2%, that marked the end of a boom cycle. We're talking May 2022, July 2018, and August 2014 - these are very bearish price precedents.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
That's an important level, because every time in the past that the slope on BTC's 200-day moving average first turned below -0.2%, that marked the end of a boom cycle. We're talking May 2022, July 2018, and August 2014 - these are very bearish price precedents.
2.) The 200-day moving average trend has turned decisively negative. The slope on the 200-day moving average for BTC has dropped below -0.2%.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
2.) The 200-day moving average trend has turned decisively negative. The slope on the 200-day moving average for BTC has dropped below -0.2%.
But as of this past week, that pattern has broken. BTC dropped to the bottom-side of its Fourth Halving Cycle uptrend channel and knifed through the support line like butter. Very bearish breakdown.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
But as of this past week, that pattern has broken. BTC dropped to the bottom-side of its Fourth Halving Cycle uptrend channel and knifed through the support line like butter. Very bearish breakdown.
1.) We lost the Fourth Halving Cycle uptrend channel. Ever since the bull market began in late 2022, BTC has formed a solid uptrend channel on a logarithmic scale. On multiple occasions, BTC dropped to the bottom-side of this uptrend channel, bounced off it, and the bull market continued.
February 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM
1.) We lost the Fourth Halving Cycle uptrend channel. Ever since the bull market began in late 2022, BTC has formed a solid uptrend channel on a logarithmic scale. On multiple occasions, BTC dropped to the bottom-side of this uptrend channel, bounced off it, and the bull market continued.
It looks like we should be in the "bottoming zone" for AI stocks, assuming this is just another correction like March 2023, October 2023, April 2024, August 2024, and November 2025... and NOT something more sinister...
February 4, 2026 at 11:11 PM
It looks like we should be in the "bottoming zone" for AI stocks, assuming this is just another correction like March 2023, October 2023, April 2024, August 2024, and November 2025... and NOT something more sinister...
So... corrections in the AI Boom so far have typically bottomed after a 10-15% drop towards the 100- or 200-day moving average with an RSI between 30 and 40.
Where are we now?
Total drop of 9%. Getting to the 10-15% level.
In between 100- and 200-day.
RSI of 33.
Where are we now?
Total drop of 9%. Getting to the 10-15% level.
In between 100- and 200-day.
RSI of 33.
February 4, 2026 at 11:11 PM
So... corrections in the AI Boom so far have typically bottomed after a 10-15% drop towards the 100- or 200-day moving average with an RSI between 30 and 40.
Where are we now?
Total drop of 9%. Getting to the 10-15% level.
In between 100- and 200-day.
RSI of 33.
Where are we now?
Total drop of 9%. Getting to the 10-15% level.
In between 100- and 200-day.
RSI of 33.
October 2023: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
April 2024: We dropped 10% to 100-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
August 2024: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
November 2025: We dropped 10% to the 100-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
April 2024: We dropped 10% to 100-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
August 2024: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
November 2025: We dropped 10% to the 100-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
February 4, 2026 at 11:11 PM
October 2023: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
April 2024: We dropped 10% to 100-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
August 2024: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
November 2025: We dropped 10% to the 100-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
April 2024: We dropped 10% to 100-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
August 2024: We dropped 15% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 30.
November 2025: We dropped 10% to the 100-day. RSI bottomed just above 30.
Assuming so, then let's see how the current correction technically compares to previous corrections (excluding Liberation Day given the unique macro factors in that flash crash).
March 2023: We dropped 10% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 40.
March 2023: We dropped 10% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 40.
February 4, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Assuming so, then let's see how the current correction technically compares to previous corrections (excluding Liberation Day given the unique macro factors in that flash crash).
March 2023: We dropped 10% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 40.
March 2023: We dropped 10% to 200-day. RSI bottomed at 40.
So as these solutions scale from ~4% of profits to >10% over the next few quarters, margins should improve.
This was the trough quarter for margins. That means it should also be the trough quarter for the stock.
This was the trough quarter for margins. That means it should also be the trough quarter for the stock.
February 4, 2026 at 9:59 PM
So as these solutions scale from ~4% of profits to >10% over the next few quarters, margins should improve.
This was the trough quarter for margins. That means it should also be the trough quarter for the stock.
This was the trough quarter for margins. That means it should also be the trough quarter for the stock.
But margins are getting compressed b/c they're spending like crazy to drive that growth and discounting product to beat competitors. But the full-stack solutions offer technological differentiation and therefore mean less margin pressure.
February 4, 2026 at 9:59 PM
But margins are getting compressed b/c they're spending like crazy to drive that growth and discounting product to beat competitors. But the full-stack solutions offer technological differentiation and therefore mean less margin pressure.
These solutions currently only represent 4% of profit but are expected to reach double-digit contribution by the end of 2026.
And that's the big thing here b/c those solutions should have better margins. The big knock on SMCI stock has been margins. Sure, they're growing revenues like wildfire.
And that's the big thing here b/c those solutions should have better margins. The big knock on SMCI stock has been margins. Sure, they're growing revenues like wildfire.
February 4, 2026 at 9:59 PM
These solutions currently only represent 4% of profit but are expected to reach double-digit contribution by the end of 2026.
And that's the big thing here b/c those solutions should have better margins. The big knock on SMCI stock has been margins. Sure, they're growing revenues like wildfire.
And that's the big thing here b/c those solutions should have better margins. The big knock on SMCI stock has been margins. Sure, they're growing revenues like wildfire.
SMCI is winning here, and has tremendous upsell/cross-sell opportunities with its new full-stack Data Center Building Block Solutions, which include liquid cooling, power shelves, and management software.
February 4, 2026 at 9:59 PM
SMCI is winning here, and has tremendous upsell/cross-sell opportunities with its new full-stack Data Center Building Block Solutions, which include liquid cooling, power shelves, and management software.