Author | Lightnews

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

With AppFolio now benefiting from two major tailwinds -- renters economy shift + AI software upgrades -- the stock looks primed to keep running higher, imo.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

That platform is already producing tangible outcomes for customers. ~5 days faster to fill vacancies. +20% renewal rates. +3% NOI. ~10 hours/week saved on routine work for early adopters.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

That tailwind remains in place today.

But now, I increasingly like the AI side of this story.

APPF is integrating AI across its software platform to create an AI-native performance platform for property managers, dubbed Realm-X.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

I initially liked #APPF stock a few years back as a tech play on the "Renters Economy" -- with home prices + rates so high, more and more people are flocking to rental units, which means increased business for rental unit operators, and AppFolio provides tech/software solutions for those operators.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Which means that if this story keeps gaining traction, the turnaround in ILMN stock (already up from $70 to $120) could have a lot more runway ahead.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

BionInsight + DRAGEN ML upgrades + some new multi-omic data products tell me that the AI growth narrative @ Illumina is starting to gain traction. The potential long-term value unlock here is enormous.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

DRAGEN, meanwhile, keeps pushing ML-enhanced variant calling and structural-variant accuracy, accelerating time-to-insight and tightening the hardware-plus-software flywheel tied to NovaSeq X placements. This matters as AI workloads in genomics shift from "generate data" to "interpret at scale."

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

This is the clearest step yet to monetize Illumina's massive data advantage above the instrument/consumable layer.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Illumina launched a new AI division called BioInsight, which is a dedicated informatics + AI business aimed at drug developers, built to ingest population-scale multi-omics and spin up discovery-grade models.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Revenues stopped declining for the first time in about 2 years. Product revenues rose at their fastest pace since late 2023. The growth trajectory is turning around.

And it is because of AI.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

#ILMN has a ton of value in the world of applying AI to biotech + medicine, but Wall Street has largely ignored that value as the stock has been clobbered by China issues, management changes, operational miscues, etc.

That could be changing. This quarter feels like an inflection point.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

sales + profits.

This stock will rebound soon imo.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

In my view, the quarter reads as continued confirmation that MPWR is a power-management pick-and-shovel for the AI build-out, and with #MSFT #META #AMZN #GOOGL all upping their AI capex guidance for 2025 + 2026, I think MPWR is in a great position to keep winning lots of business and driving higher

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

The numbers support this. Revs +19%, w/ Enterprise Data (AI data centers) sales ripping +33% QoQ to $191.5mm. All of that is higher sales of power management solutions to AI applications and customers, such as #NVDA.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

MPWR continues to position itself as the "power every AI socket" supplier (GPU/accelerator modules, OAM/UBB platforms, next-gen training hardware, etc), which keeps the company leveraged to rising accelerator wattages and board-level power density.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

This is the stock is just letting some air out of the wheels.

But I think shares bounce back very soon because the underlying growth story is great.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

#MPWR down despite a strong Q3 report that smashed expectations + Q4 guide that was much better than expected, too.

There's some valuation friction at play here. Going into the print, MPWR stock was trading at 48X forward earnings, which essentially matched a 4-year high.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

That shift should converge on a depressed valuation to spark a pretty nice rebound in TEAM stock.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

The story here has been that AI will create operational headwinds for Atlassian, leaving the stock trading at effectively 5-year lows. Now, though, they appear to be turning those headwinds into tailwinds.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Plus, they closed The Browser Company deal to reimagine the browser as an AI workspace and agreed to acquire DX to give engineering leaders visibility into productivity and AI ROI.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Atlassian AI MAUs: +50% QoQ -> 3.5mm. Teamwork Graph now tracks 100B+ objects/relationships across Jira, Confluence, etc., feeding Atlassian's AI (Rovo, copilots, agents) with rich enterprise context and permissioning. That's a defensible moat.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

It looks like #TEAM is finally turning into an AI growth story.

2X-beat-and-raise report last night with very impressive revenue growth stability >20%.

- Q1 revenues: +21%
- Q2e revenues: +20%
- FY26e revenues: +21%

The ~20% sales growth durability is driven by AI.

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Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

#MRVL up big today b/c #AMZN said it is seeing VERY strong demand for its custom Trainium chips.

Trainium 2 is fully-subscribed / multi-billion-dollar business / growing by 150% QoQ.

The era of custom silicon has arrived and MRVL is a big play in this new world.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

Put it all together, and this report offered enough iPhone upgrade cycle + Apple Intelligence hope to keep the stock on a winning path for now.

Being Exponential | Luke Lango @beingexponential.bsky.social · 1d

The Services business is also accelerating and a delivered a multi-year best 15% sales growth rate in the quarter. That should only go up in 2026 if iPhone sales really do accelerate + Apple Intelligence gets some major upgrades.

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