Ballot Box Scotland
@ballotbox.scot
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
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Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
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By-Election Result analysis: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
By-Election Result: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
ballotbox.scot
November 22, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Result analysis: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
Reform narrowly blocked from their first Scottish win, though it's their best yet vote share up here and first time they placed first.
Notably high rate of Didn't Transfers for this top two though at 68% of available; past 5 by-elections have been ~58%, 58%, 56%, 36% and 44% exhausted of available.
Notably high rate of Didn't Transfers for this top two though at 68% of available; past 5 by-elections have been ~58%, 58%, 56%, 36% and 44% exhausted of available.
Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) by-election transfers, votes at final stage:
Conservative: 1565 (39.7%)
Reform UK: 1523 (38.7%)
Didn't Transfer: 851 (21.6%)
No detailed data to follow as this was a hand count.
Conservative: 1565 (39.7%)
Reform UK: 1523 (38.7%)
Didn't Transfer: 851 (21.6%)
No detailed data to follow as this was a hand count.
November 21, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Reform narrowly blocked from their first Scottish win, though it's their best yet vote share up here and first time they placed first.
Notably high rate of Didn't Transfers for this top two though at 68% of available; past 5 by-elections have been ~58%, 58%, 56%, 36% and 44% exhausted of available.
Notably high rate of Didn't Transfers for this top two though at 68% of available; past 5 by-elections have been ~58%, 58%, 56%, 36% and 44% exhausted of available.
Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) by-election, first prefs:
RUK: 1386 (35.2%, new)
Con: 1302 (33.1%, -7.1)
SNP: 541 (13.7%, -9.5)
Lab: 239 (6.1%, -3.9)
Ind 207 (5.3%, new)
Grn: 141 (3.6%, 1)
LD: 96 (2.4%, new)
Heritage: 27 (0.7%, new)
(Other Inds 24% in 2022)
Con elected stage 7
RUK: 1386 (35.2%, new)
Con: 1302 (33.1%, -7.1)
SNP: 541 (13.7%, -9.5)
Lab: 239 (6.1%, -3.9)
Ind 207 (5.3%, new)
Grn: 141 (3.6%, 1)
LD: 96 (2.4%, new)
Heritage: 27 (0.7%, new)
(Other Inds 24% in 2022)
Con elected stage 7
November 21, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) by-election, first prefs:
RUK: 1386 (35.2%, new)
Con: 1302 (33.1%, -7.1)
SNP: 541 (13.7%, -9.5)
Lab: 239 (6.1%, -3.9)
Ind 207 (5.3%, new)
Grn: 141 (3.6%, 1)
LD: 96 (2.4%, new)
Heritage: 27 (0.7%, new)
(Other Inds 24% in 2022)
Con elected stage 7
RUK: 1386 (35.2%, new)
Con: 1302 (33.1%, -7.1)
SNP: 541 (13.7%, -9.5)
Lab: 239 (6.1%, -3.9)
Ind 207 (5.3%, new)
Grn: 141 (3.6%, 1)
LD: 96 (2.4%, new)
Heritage: 27 (0.7%, new)
(Other Inds 24% in 2022)
Con elected stage 7
Rarely go beyond my remit to share other stuff but especially given *gestures broadly* it does feel like this hits a few nails on their heads, especially in terms of being someone for whom Twitter was an essential launch point and then having to just chuck it because it became a heinous fash factory
this week's newsletter is titled "aren't you tired of feeling insane all the time?" and I think it speaks for itself
it is also free to read
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/arent-you-...
it is also free to read
youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/arent-you-...
November 21, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Rarely go beyond my remit to share other stuff but especially given *gestures broadly* it does feel like this hits a few nails on their heads, especially in terms of being someone for whom Twitter was an essential launch point and then having to just chuck it because it became a heinous fash factory
Reposted by Ballot Box Scotland
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Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
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November 20, 2025 at 11:02 PM
If you value my work and appreciate the fact that I put basic human decency and respect for human rights over my potential income, I'd really appreciate if you chipped into said crowdfunder here: gofund.me/55e3a6cf4
Looks like I'll have to add two grand to my pre-election poll crowdfunder because I certainly won't be working with this rag again. Absolutely disgraceful, awarding a hate campaign that is out to destroy my community and kill my best friend like this. Shame on you.
For Women Scotland wins Public Campaign or Campaigner of the Year at The Herald Scottish Politician of the Year Awards 2025, in association with ScottishPower
www.heraldscotland.com/news...
#politicianawards25
www.heraldscotland.com/news...
#politicianawards25
November 20, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Looks like I'll have to add two grand to my pre-election poll crowdfunder because I certainly won't be working with this rag again. Absolutely disgraceful, awarding a hate campaign that is out to destroy my community and kill my best friend like this. Shame on you.
By-election set for the 29th of January. A near three way tie in first preferences resolves incredibly easily in the Lib Dems' favour if we re-run 2022 for one seat, at 52% vs the SNP's 31.8%. Given the shape of the area, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be easy favourites here.
November 20, 2025 at 7:53 PM
By-election set for the 29th of January. A near three way tie in first preferences resolves incredibly easily in the Lib Dems' favour if we re-run 2022 for one seat, at 52% vs the SNP's 31.8%. Given the shape of the area, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be easy favourites here.
Polls open in Dumfries and Galloway's Stranraer and the Rhins by-election, to replace an Independent who had a whopping 33 years service. This has the very realistic prospect in my view of being Reform's first ever Scottish win, given the profile of the area.
By-Election Preview: Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) 20th of November 2025
The departure of an Independent with decades of service in an area the Conservatives have been falling to bits may open the door for Reform’s first Scottish victory.
ballotbox.scot
November 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Polls open in Dumfries and Galloway's Stranraer and the Rhins by-election, to replace an Independent who had a whopping 33 years service. This has the very realistic prospect in my view of being Reform's first ever Scottish win, given the profile of the area.
Andrew Polson has been jailed for two years, crossing the threshold for automatic disqualification. A by-election for East Dunbartonshire's Bearsden South ward will therefore now be held. This has been my most hotly anticipated by-election for genuinely three years. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
November 19, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Andrew Polson has been jailed for two years, crossing the threshold for automatic disqualification. A by-election for East Dunbartonshire's Bearsden South ward will therefore now be held. This has been my most hotly anticipated by-election for genuinely three years. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far - already one-eigthth of the way to the goal!
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far - already one-eigthth of the way to the goal!
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy by-election with lots to watch: tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
ballotbox.scot
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
ballotbox.scot
November 9, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.
Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.
November 8, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.
Reposted by Ballot Box Scotland
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 7, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 7, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
Background Following hot on the heels of a Stirling by-election last week, we went a little bit further along in the same Holyrood region for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Unfortunately this was the third vote this term to arise from a Labour councillor being convicted on sex offences in relation to minors, in this case David Graham. He'd been a councillor since 2012, and remained formally Labour affiliated until he was convicted.
ballotbox.scot
November 7, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.
The hatred the youth parliament gets is just so out of proportion. Can these people hear themselves. It’s creepy.
November 7, 2025 at 1:42 PM
It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.
Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
November 7, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
November 7, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.
By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025
Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour’s chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share.
ballotbox.scot
November 6, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.
As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.
November 5, 2025 at 8:11 AM
As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.
November 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.
By-Election Result analysis: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
By-Election Result: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
ballotbox.scot
November 3, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Result analysis: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
If we do vs 2022:
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
October 30, 2025 at 11:31 PM
If we do vs 2022:
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.